Global model runs discussion

[ninel conde]

Now... I also do not believe the GFS

Convective feedback from the monsoon trough yet again most likely. CMC shows no development

you mean the one at 159 or both? i dont see any disturbance that would lead to a storm at 159.

[meriland23]

There is too much faith in the model runs this far out. None of these even exist yet, not even a wave or disturbance associated. Don't doubt though it is a sign that things might ramp up, but this is a needle in a haystack sort of situation guessing what day/hour/ and where they will go. In 300+ hours, the whole setup can change and something could head into the gulf, up the EC, or miss completely. Can't even tell you how many times I have seen the GFS track change in 10 hrs let alone 300+.

[Stormcenter]

Great post and I agree 100%.

There is too much faith in the model runs this far out. None of these even exist yet, not even a wave or disturbance associated. Don't doubt though it is a sign that things might ramp up, but this is a needle in a haystack sort of situation guessing what day/hour/ and where they will go. In 300+ hours, the whole setup can change and something could head into the gulf, up the EC, or miss completely. Can't even tell you how many times I have seen the GFS track change in 10 hrs let alone 300+.

[Riptide]

Heading towards climatological peak, more than likely these model runs are accurate in their portrayal of multiple strong systems.

[gatorcane]

There is too much faith in the model runs this far out. None of these even exist yet, not even a wave or disturbance associated. Don't doubt though it is a sign that things might ramp up, but this is a needle in a haystack sort of situation guessing what day/hour/ and where they will go. In 300+ hours, the whole setup can change and something could head into the gulf, up the EC, or miss completely. Can't even tell you how many times I have seen the GFS track change in 10 hrs let alone 300+.

That's true but these long-range runs exists so we can get a feel or idea of what things might look like out there in the long-range, and the GFS has shown before it can get the idea about a genesis correct way out in advance as far as 300+ hours out way before the system that forms the cyclone even exists. Of course nobody really should be put much faith in a model run that is 300+ hours out with regard to system specifics such as how strong a system may be where it will hit or what exact track it will take. Once we get beyond about 7 days and especially 10 days, it certainly becomes markedly less reliable in predicting genesis.

[Portastorm]

There is too much faith in the model runs this far out. None of these even exist yet, not even a wave or disturbance associated. Don't doubt though it is a sign that things might ramp up, but this is a needle in a haystack sort of situation guessing what day/hour/ and where they will go. In 300+ hours, the whole setup can change and something could head into the gulf, up the EC, or miss completely. Can't even tell you how many times I have seen the GFS track change in 10 hrs let alone 300+.

That's true but these long-range runs exists so we can get a feel or idea of what things might look like out there in the long-range, and the GFS has shown before it can get the idea about a genesis correct way out in advance as far as 300+ hours out way before the system that forms the cyclone even exists. Of course nobody really should be put much faith in a model run that is 300+ hours out with regard to system specifics such as how strong a system may be where it will hit or what exact track it will take. Once we get beyond about 7 days and especially 10 days, it certainly becomes markedly less reliable in predicting genesis.

Comments and posts which include speculation on long-range weather are common when we do not have active systems in the basin. It gives folks something to look at and comment on. Most people here understand that they shouldn't be boarding up their windows if they see a Cat 5 heading their way at 300 hours on the 6z GFS run. Of course, everyone should have carried out their seasonal hurricane prep anyhow by this time and should be ready to do such things on short notice.

As gatorcane said, we look to these model runs at this point for trends and for an idea on what things MIGHT look like down the road.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The 18z GFS develops a tropical cyclone off Africa in 3-4 days that tracks westward for a time before recurving in the open Atlantic as an intensifying hurricane.

[Gustywind]

Hey peeps, all those posts from, Meriland, Gatorcane, Porstastormand are very nice and educative as their analysis. It's always a pleasure to read them.

[tolakram]

The 18z GFS develops a tropical cyclone off Africa in 3-4 days that tracks westward for a time before recurving in the open Atlantic as an intensifying hurricane.

Coming off Africa at or below 10 lat and skirting up the African coast? That's low, I wonder if it's a feedback issue.

[Hurricaneman]

The 18z GFS develops a tropical cyclone off Africa in 3-4 days that tracks westward for a time before recurving in the open Atlantic as an intensifying hurricane.

Coming off Africa at 10 lat? That's low, I wonder if it's a feedback issue.

nope, because if you look at the spin on satellite this will come off near there if it doesn't move more northerly at emergence

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

Levi Cowan discusses this in his latest video and makes some excellent points. Recall that the ECMWF predicted a slow Atlantic season many months ago. It actually has been correct so far but for the wrong reasons. The ECMWF forecasted above normal pressures across the Atlantic basin. But pressures in the Atlantic especially far eastern Atlantic are not high but lower than normal. The problem is a lack of disturbances and alot of dry stable air still out there. The MJO should hit in about 10 days from now based on what the long-range CFS and ECMWF models are showing. That MJO should be what sparks things and really gets things going out there as far as Cape Verde development is concerned. I suspect over the next week or so, models will begin to really zone in more and more on development in their medium to long range picking up on the MJO pulse.

link to video:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... of-august/

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[meriland23]

Levi Cowan discusses this in his latest video and makes some excellent points. Recall that the ECMWF predicted a slow Atlantic season many months ago. It actually has been correct so far but for the wrong reasons. The ECMWF forecasted above normal pressures across the Atlantic basin. But pressures in the Atlantic especially far eastern Atlantic are not high but lower than normal. The problem is a lack of disturbances and alot of dry stable air still out there. The MJO should hit in about 10 days from now based on what the long-range CFS and ECMWF models are showing. That MJO should be what sparks things and really gets things going out there as far as Cape Verde development is concerned. I suspect over the next week or so, models will begin to really zone in more and more on development in their medium to long range picking up on the MJO pulse.

link to video:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... of-august/

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree totally. Plus the sal has delayed development for quite some time. It was a huge burst of dry air, would take a while for the dust to settle.. (pun intended). There are factors in play, but IMO, this is kind of the quiet before the storm so to speak. Given the dry and stable air around the ATL has limited development/slowed development, the reason for it's development and what would drive or intensify these storms is still very much there. The ATL wants to desperately ramp up, but the dry air is smacking it on the hand. Once that settles in about a week, I expect a complete 180 .. a very strong and consistent rest of the season. I imagine it will more than make up for lost time.. but this is just a opinion haha.

[supercane4867]

00Z GFS has nothing through day 6

192HR two wave

[Yellow Evan]

Anyone here wanna guess how many storms GFs shows this run?

Answer: 1

A short lived TS that pulls a Chantal and becomes a wave.

[Riptide]

Anyone here wanna guess how many storms GFs shows this run?

Answer: 1

A short lived TS that pulls a Chantal and becomes a wave.

As far as I'm concerned, these individual runs are just background noise.

[fci]

I know that the positive MJO dictates a lot of the activity but I recall that there was supposed to be a positive MJO sometime in the past few weeks but didn't see anything really heat up in the Tropics. I can't remember where I saw the post with the prediction about the MJO but it seems like in Late July there was discussion that in a "few weeks" the cycle would come around. Didn't see it happen though.
Someone with more information can correct me or remember when the cycle has been positive thus far this season and the resulting lack of development.

[ninel conde]

Anyone here wanna guess how many storms GFs shows this run?

Answer: 1

A short lived TS that pulls a Chantal and becomes a wave.

wow!! no sign of a pattern change or the dry air going away. i remember back in the old days when i would get up on a aug/sept day and be excited to look at the models and satellites. now i just hope to a shower somewhere in the tropics.

[tolakram]

Anyone here wanna guess how many storms GFs shows this run?

Answer: 1

A short lived TS that pulls a Chantal and becomes a wave.

Did you see the euro now showing back to back hits on the Baja peninsula?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation

[Stormcenter]

Looks "right now" like Labor Day weekend will be unusually quiet in the tropics. IMO

[Bocadude85]

Looks "right now" like Labor Day weekend will be unusually quiet in the tropics. IMO

6z GFS has a storm hitting the Leeward Islands Labor Day weekend.