Global model runs discussion

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Gustywind
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Re: Re:

#5901 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 21, 2013 8:32 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Looks "right now" like Labor Day weekend will be unusually quiet in the tropics. IMO



6z GFS has a storm hitting the Leeward Islands Labor Day weekend.

Any link to provide this? Thanks.
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tolakram
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Re: Re:

#5902 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 21, 2013 8:38 am

Gustywind wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Looks "right now" like Labor Day weekend will be unusually quiet in the tropics. IMO



6z GFS has a storm hitting the Leeward Islands Labor Day weekend.

Any link to provide this? Thanks.


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_81.png

from: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5903 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Aug 21, 2013 8:40 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Looks "right now" like Labor Day weekend will be unusually quiet in the tropics. IMO



6z GFS has a storm hitting the Leeward Islands Labor Day weekend.


No it doesnt. I looked at it and labor day weekend shows in the poor resolution 276hrs+ and it shows enhanced rainfal but no storm. I am assuming when you say storm you meant in terms of tropical cyclone nature. If you meant regular daytime thunderstorm then i guess ur right

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5904 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 21, 2013 8:45 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Looks "right now" like Labor Day weekend will be unusually quiet in the tropics. IMO



6z GFS has a storm hitting the Leeward Islands Labor Day weekend.


No it doesnt. I looked at it and labor day weekend shows in the poor resolution 276hrs+ and it shows enhanced rainfal but no storm. I am assuming when you say storm you meant in terms of tropical cyclone nature. If you meant regular daytime thunderstorm then i guess ur right

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE



The actual landfall occurs on September 6th but the storm is approaching the Leewards during Labor Day Weekend.
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ninel conde

#5905 Postby ninel conde » Wed Aug 21, 2013 9:35 am

oh, 384 out
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Re:

#5906 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:06 am

Stormcenter wrote:Looks "right now" like Labor Day weekend will be unusually quiet in the tropics. IMO


Excellent! I will be vacationing in the Dominican Republic that weekend and I'm praying for no Tropical interference!!! :D :flag:
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Re:

#5907 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:07 am

ninel conde wrote:oh, 384 out



In the other thread you were talking about dry air being around on September 10th.. thats 480 hours out.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5908 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 21, 2013 11:00 am

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_81.png

shows a moderate-intensity storm around the islands.
Last edited by tolakram on Wed Aug 21, 2013 11:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed image tags
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#5909 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 21, 2013 12:46 pm

12Z GFS pushing back the timing even further.

Seems like there is a very good chance that there will be nothing through the end of August and even beyond
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#5910 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Aug 21, 2013 12:57 pm

So much for this above average season. Is the MJO where it is supposed to be? Big Joe said it was getting into a position where it was prime for development
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5911 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 21, 2013 1:02 pm

Caution those that think this season is over things can change very quickly in the tropics and i still expect activity to ramp up later this month especially into sept.
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#5912 Postby Ntxw » Wed Aug 21, 2013 1:17 pm

The MJO is waking up from the dead, yes. It can be seen over the CPAC and moving into the EPAC. However these models perform poorly forecasting the strength of the MJO. We'll just have to wait and see how it progresses but as others have mentioned you need something to take advantage of the rising air. Have to wonder how much of that will be helped by the Indian Ocean (think African ITCZ feed) Monsoon, if any. It's been quiet there.
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#5913 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Wed Aug 21, 2013 1:39 pm

Almost better to have some smaller storms disrupt the gulf just to bring the temps down. if nothing comes through, then that water temp just keeps going up, so that when something can get going, it has loads of fuel to work with. when those fronts start dipping their toes in the GOM and the tails spawn storms, they'll be in jacuzzi water at this rate.
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ninel conde

Re: Re:

#5914 Postby ninel conde » Wed Aug 21, 2013 5:53 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
ninel conde wrote:oh, 384 out



In the other thread you were talking about dry air being around on September 10th.. thats 480 hours out.


but the dry air has been a multi-year permanence now.
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Re:

#5915 Postby ninel conde » Wed Aug 21, 2013 5:54 pm

Alyono wrote:12Z GFS pushing back the timing even further.

Seems like there is a very good chance that there will be nothing through the end of August and even beyond


yep, euro nothing, GFS nothing. sept10 is the peak day and so far we arent an even bet to have a cane anywhere in the basin that day.
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Re: Re:

#5916 Postby SouthFloridian92 » Wed Aug 21, 2013 5:57 pm

ninel conde wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
ninel conde wrote:oh, 384 out



In the other thread you were talking about dry air being around on September 10th.. thats 480 hours out.


but the dry air has been a multi-year permanence now.


What's been causing all of this dry air?
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Re: Re:

#5917 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 21, 2013 6:05 pm

ninel conde wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
ninel conde wrote:oh, 384 out



In the other thread you were talking about dry air being around on September 10th.. thats 480 hours out.


but the dry air has been a multi-year permanence now.


Ok season is over no hurricanes will form... :spam: We are just into the REAL SEASON anything before that in my book is just bonus. Numbers aren't of importance just takes 1 storm.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5918 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Wed Aug 21, 2013 6:06 pm

GFS 18Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

:bored: :sleeping:
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5919 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 21, 2013 6:10 pm

An Erin type system :lol:

Image
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#5920 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 21, 2013 6:10 pm

only a weak TS hat immediately recurves on the 18Z GFS

it is more than 10 days away
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