Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[hurricaneCW]

And remember that it only takes one storm to make it a deadly and costly season. I'll be patient and see how the MJO plays out, but I have to say that all those active forecasts could be in trouble. Usually things ramp up by now if the forecast is for an active season, the MJO is now affecting the eastern pacific and we are seeing activity pick up there so that gives me hope we'll see something soon.

[Alyono]

For how long have we been saying wait for the MJO?

There are far more important factors than the MJO!

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

I wonder when wind shear would weaken.

[Frank2]

Forget the MJO - this is the OHYO (One Hundred Year Oscillation):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1914_ ... on_map.png

P.S. Seriously, though - looking at the current IR there's just not much moisture out there, though so far we've had a fairly rainy day here in South Florida...

[Frank2]

...make that the 99-Year Oscillation...

[hurricanes1234]

I'll be patient and see how the MJO plays out, but I have to say that all those active forecasts could be in trouble. Usually things ramp up by now if the forecast is for an active season, the MJO is now affecting the eastern pacific and we are seeing activity pick up there so that gives me hope we'll see something soon.

I agree with this statement. I am not saying that the season cannot and would not become more active, but usually, by late August, even if the previous months were quiet, when an active season is forecast, by now, there should at least be developing tropical waves, which is what happened in 2010. There are currently no systems with even a small chance of development in the next 5 days at the very least, and hostile conditions continue to dominate the basin just like they did one month ago, however, the dry air is lessening. But even though conditions may be improving, and we have seen how the Atlantic is extremely volatile, I still think the above-average forecasts may be a bit too high. In my opinion, the only way they would come true is if we have a record active September and October with several hurricanes each month, and at least one major hurricane each month. In addition to this, November must also be active with more than two named storms, if the active forecasts are to come to pass. The best thing is to wait and see, but we've been saying that activity would increase soon since late July. However, anything is possible here. The absolute best part about this inactivity is that landmasses would be spared, and thus, priceless lives would also be saved.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

Moisture over Africa still increasing slowly.

mid-level water vapor, 5 day movie: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... vmid5.html

upper level water vapor, 5 day movie: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... wvhi5.html

[Hammy]

I've done some number crunching with the ACE for comparison, and a few years that had late August starts to the activity, with this year's ACE being about 7-8:

2002 did not have the fifth storm until Sep 2, and nothing in August between Aug 9-29; ACE up to 8/22 was only 3.59
2001 had fifth storm on Sep 2, and again mostly weak storms beforehand, and ACE was 11.55
1988 had nothing from Aug 10-28 as far as named systems, fifth storm in early Sept, and ACE was only 1.54 at this point
1984 literally had no named storms until August 29
1981 had only four storms prior to September, all fairly weak except for Hurricane Dennis, and even with that factored in was still only 9.98
1979 had three storms, and nothing in August until 8/25, and was only 4.74 prior despite having a hurricane by now.

So while not exactly common, there is still ample precedent to have weak activity prior to September and still have an average to strong season.

[sunnyday]

Levi Cowan has a very interesting forecast on his site. He says that things should heat up in about 10 days.

[TheStormExpert]

Levi Cowan has a very interesting forecast on his site. He says that things should heat up in about 10 days.

That's what everybody's been saying for about the past month though!

[TheStormExpert]

The Weather Channel is now reading into the fact that there has been NO hurricanes as of August 21st. They say this is not unusual.
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/no-atlantic-hurricanes-through-august-20130821

[cycloneye]

How many named systems will this strong MJO pulse that all models agree help to form?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

For those saying just wait 10-14 more days the season is not a bust it will pick up. Of course it will eventually pick up. I think I have a better chance to win the powerball then the season going through November without another storm. Its how many more, how long they last, and the intensity of them. Very doubtful we get to the upper teens as forecasted and the amount that actually make landfall in the higher than avg threat areas this year ie Florida and gulf coast. Which with all these fronts and troughs and hostile conditions in the gulf doesn't seem likely either. And yes I know things can and might eventually change but been hearing that for over a month now

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The recent burst of activity in the central Pacific and upcoming activity in the eastern Pacific should be a sign.

[TheStormExpert]

The recent burst of activity in the central Pacific and upcoming activity in the eastern Pacific should be a sign.

Of course the E. Pacific continues to blow through storms like usual every year. Only difference this year is how they are struggling to get very intense due to less instability. I feel like they will end up with more storms this season than the Atlantic will.

[MetroMike]

Yes, welcome to the 2013 Atlantic "Invest Season" They will have to be some eventually its the earths way of transporting the heat out of the tropics.

[TheStormExpert]

Yes, welcome to the 2013 Atlantic "Invest Season" They will have to be some eventually its the earths way of transporting the heat out of the tropics.

I really don't even know why they call it hurricane season anymore. Shouldn't it be storm season?

[WeatherEmperor]

For those saying just wait 10-14 more days the season is not a bust it will pick up. Of course it will eventually pick up. I think I have a better chance to win the powerball then the season going through November without another storm. Its how many more, how long they last, and the intensity of them. Very doubtful we get to the upper teens as forecasted and the amount that actually make landfall in the higher than avg threat areas this year ie Florida and gulf coast. Which with all these fronts and troughs and hostile conditions in the gulf doesn't seem likely either. And yes I know things can and might eventually change but been hearing that for over a month now

I could not agree more. Time is running out and the models have yet to show an increase in activity despite all the mjo favorability talk. I agree that activity will pick up based on climatology alone...but all this talk of increased risk of hurricane strikes and high number of named storms is in jeapordy of not happening. I hate preseason forecasts...hurricane season is hurricane season. People should be prepared no matter what preseason forecasts say

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[Yellow Evan]

For those saying just wait 10-14 more days the season is not a bust it will pick up. Of course it will eventually pick up. I think I have a better chance to win the powerball then the season going through November without another storm. Its how many more, how long they last, and the intensity of them. Very doubtful we get to the upper teens as forecasted and the amount that actually make landfall in the higher than avg threat areas this year ie Florida and gulf coast. Which with all these fronts and troughs and hostile conditions in the gulf doesn't seem likely either. And yes I know things can and might eventually change but been hearing that for over a month now

I could not agree more. Time is running out and the models have yet to show an increase in activity despite all the mjo favorability talk. I agree that activity will pick up based on climatology alone...but all this talk of increased risk of hurricane strikes and high number of named storms is in jeapordy of not happening. I hate preseason forecasts...hurricane season is hurricane season. People should be prepared no matter what preseason forecasts say

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

At first, I was thinking eh, wait a few more weeks before you declare it a bust. But, it's getting too late now. Will activity pick up? Yes. Of course! But will it be enough to get more than 14 storms. Not likely IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

And I'm just not bashing on just hurricane season preseason forecasts. I am the same way with preseason college football polls as well. Its the exact same concept. Its a shot in the dark and always wrong. Its just for hype, ratings, and the almighty dollar

I'm also not declaring it a bust, YET, but the fat lady is starting to clear her throat. Even if a hurricane does manage to develop and make landfall it does not mean the predictions were correct.