2013 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Start of Juliette



Will it pan out like the last runs?



CMC not GFS showing high-end TS



Not too shabby.



CMC wants to show a hurricane.



First major! About time



Still decently intense system. Less of land threat.



Goodbye.



Shut down for a while?

[supercane4867]

Start of Juliette

It maybe develop from the tropical wave currently in the Caribbean

[Kingarabian]

Very low pressures forecasted all over the East Pac... Too bad instability sucks.

[Yellow Evan]

Very low pressures forecasted all over the East Pac... Too bad instability sucks.

it still does?

Now, everyone's morning model fix.



Start of uh Juliete.



Cute little system



Decent hurricane



Peak



Gone

Now on to CMC:

Also, there is this

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD.

[hurricanes1234]

So then this means the same 969 mbar storm which we called 'major' is now forecast to peak at 987 mbar, am I correct?

[Yellow Evan]

So then this means the same 969 mbar storm which we called 'major' is now forecast to peak at 987 mbar, am I correct?

No, it is forecast to peak at 981 mbar after looking at it further but models change every run.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS run is boring, so I am not going to post anything other than its peak.

[hurricanes1234]

This looks like 975 mbar could be a 105 mph or 110 mph storm. Near major hurricane strength.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

This looks like 975 mbar could be a 105 mph or 110 mph storm. Near major hurricane strength.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Knowing models, 975 mbar likely corresponds to around 100 knts. As I told you, the pressure wind relationship with global models is a little screwy.

[supercane4867]

First major hurricane of the year?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... pac_69.png

[Yellow Evan]

12z CMC shows Juliette (unfortunately) blasting into BCP midday between Los Cabos and Cabo San Lucas

But on to 0z GFS



Very favorable setup IMO.



RI



Peak



Weakening



Gone

[Yellow Evan]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. WHILE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT BEGINS
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND INTERACT WITH THE DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE
TO THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[hurricanes1234]

This could really be our first Category 3! But where would this system originate? Is it from the area of low pressure expected to form beyond 48 hours?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

This could really be our first Category 3! But where would this system originate? Is it from the area of low pressure expected to form beyond 48 hours?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes.

[Yellow Evan]

Latest runs have been boring from both the GFS and CMC.

[Yellow Evan]

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Yellow Evan]

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[supercane4867]

WOW

[hurricanes1234]

Is this run predicting a 957 mbar storm? That is a strong Category 3 or weak Category 4!

What area of interest is this expected to form out of? Is it the low that is expected to form south of the southern coast of Mexico by early next week?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Development of Juliette/Kiko



Is this even possible?




First major of the season! After showing like 5 strait runs of Juliette being a TS.



Still pretty intense



Re-intensifies again. Will it bend to the north?



A bit of a long lived Hilary 11-type major.



Still TS at that latitude?