What is interesting is that even with the mjo pulse right now at the doorstep of our basin and all the major models showing a strong pulse in our basin for the next 15-20 days and yet there is no significant change in activity in the 10 day forecast on any of the models. I am wondering if the MJO forecasts might be wrong again and the pulse collapses again or stalls out as it did earlier in the year. The MJO forecasts have not had a good track record this year.That well may be because there isn't very much out there that would traditionally be something they'd latch onto for development. You have a couple of waves across the Caribbean, Atlantic and Africa, but not many. And if you look to the Indian Ocean (see link below), there really isn't much there at all with the exception of clouds streaming across. I don't have any data on this, but maybe there is less monsoonal moisture or maybe the stream is too fast and not allowing for typically stronger pulses we'd expect to see this time of year.
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... iosair.jpgPersonally, I'm not slamming the lid on the season as some posters have been trying to do. It's almost agenda driven, and that seems to happen every year (not referring to you blp). You get some posters who will argue and argue and argue and make it their mission that the season is over before it starts only to see them vanish by early September. Sometimes it goes the other way where people just argue and argue on how hyper a season is going to be only to fade away after nothing happens. I said it a few weeks ago, but this is a bad setup year for the SE US. I fully expect 3 landfalls (of whatever) between MS and NC with other potential hits as outlined then (East Canada/Bermuda and possibly South Texas/Northern Mexico). It's all there and can be reviewed in November to see if I interpreted some of the signals. I'm not trying to be 'right' and don't have an agenda to defend. The setup is simply bad news for later if anything materializes. If not, good for us. We could probably use a break from so many multi-billion dollar hurricane disasters over the last 9 years or so.
Steve
Don't say it too soon. You might jinx it.
