Northern Gulf

[Dean4Storms]

Big blow up of convection there this morning especially NE Gulf with an MLC seen on long range radar out of Tally and some vorticity has increased in the east central Gulf this morning.

850mb Vorticity..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Low level convergence increasing a tad...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Pressure dropping.....

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

No model support now but I seem to remember the GEM and NAVGEM doing something here this week from some runs last week. Something to watch anyway if convection grows and persists.

Satellite....http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/go ... h-vis.html

[Stormcenter]

They call it home brew......I'd keep an eye on that area. IMO

[Dean4Storms]

They call it home brew......I'd keep an eye on that area. IMO

There is no shear to speak of and upper level divergence increasing.

Like you said, need to watch this area today.

[N2Storms]

[quote="Dean4Storms"][quote="Stormcenter"]They call it home brew......I'd keep an eye on that area. IMO[/quote]

There is no shear to speak of and upper level divergence increasing.

Like you said, need to watch this area today.[/quote]



I just saw that this morning...there's a lot of precipitation waiting to work it's way on shore and the last thing anyone in the FL Panhandle needs right now is more rain. Our street was under a foot of water Sunday and Monday and I live on a lake and 75% of my backyard was under water. Water is just now receding back to normal levels. Even 2"-3" of quick rain would be problematic.

[Stormcenter]

Latest loop of the area.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[Dean4Storms]

They call it home brew......I'd keep an eye on that area. IMO

There is no shear to speak of and upper level divergence increasing.

Like you said, need to watch this area today.

I just saw that this morning...there's a lot of precipitation waiting to work it's way on shore and the last thing anyone in the FL Panhandle needs right now is more rain. Our street was under a foot of water Sunday and Monday and I live on a lake and 75% of my backyard was under water. Water is just now receding back to normal levels. Even 2"-3" of quick rain would be problematic.

Been in the same boat, literally. I had nearly 18 inches in July and so far this month I'm close to 12" over here in Miramar Bch. Parts of South Walton County still have roads closed and damaged.

[gatorcane]

Here is a graphic of data from a buoy located under the blob. Note the pressures are high and are going up. The whole complex should die off by later this afternoon during DMIN since the pressure is high:

[Stormcenter]

Any large blob in the GOM in August should be monitored. IMO


http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12

[gatorcane]

Pressure dropping.....

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

That buoy is located a few hundred miles south of where the blob is. I wouldn't read too much into a pressure drop here that has anything to do with the blob in the NE GOM.

[caneman]

I would say it is worth watching. See if it holds together. Is it forecast to move inshore soon?

[Stormcenter]

It's the only game in town anyway.

I would say it is worth watching. See if it holds together. Is it forecast to move inshore soon?

[Dean4Storms]

Pressure dropping.....

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

That buoy is located a few hundred miles south of where the blob is. I wouldn't read too much into a pressure drop here that has anything to do with the blob in the NE GOM.

Agree, the whole eastern half needs watching. I wasn't just saying to watch the blob in the NE Gulf.

[tropicwatch]

No indication that anything is at the surface yet ie....pressures, wind direction from buoys and weather stations in the area.

[caneman]

Not yet but worth watching. See if it sits and stews

[northjaxpro]

There is nothing there yet folks. As Gatorcane pointed out, pressures are still fairly high across the Eastern GOM. Tropics are still fairly dead currently.

[caneman]

It's pretty obvious that it's not there yet. It takes time for these things to develop. Anyone know what the wind shear is like?

[wxman57]

This is the top part of the wave now moving into the western Caribbean. It's easy to see this on the 3-day TPW loop. The wave is tilted to the west at the top. Development is unlikely, but it may bring some moisture to Texas this weekend.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[caneman]

Since you are here WXMN57. Do you see things changing in the tropics soon? IF so, why and how?

[Javlin]

To close to land.

[Stormcenter]

Not that close. IMO

To close to land.