Northern Gulf

[Dean4Storms]

To close to land.

Area of lowest surface pressure is currently in the central to east central Gulf where some vorticity has increased this morning.

I'm not saying this will develop, it does bear watching if convection persists and grows out over the central and east central Gulf.

[wxman57]

Since you are here WXMN57. Do you see things changing in the tropics soon? IF so, why and how?

August 2014? There ARE signs that the at least the Gulf/Caribbean will become more favorable for development by this time next week. Models don't show any development though.

[Dean4Storms]

As wxman57 pointed out this is the northern extent of a TWave and headed westward. Not out of the question that you could get a quick developer out of this if the convection deepens and takes off. Going to be moving right over 30C + SST's.

[ninel conde]

Since you are here WXMN57. Do you see things changing in the tropics soon? IF so, why and how?

August 2014?

still 9/6/3 for the rest of the season?

[Dean4Storms]

A lower pressure area certainly passed this buoy west of Naples, FL earlier this morning.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

[wxman57]

still 9/6/3 for the rest of the season?

As I said yesterday, 9/6/3 is impossible. 9/4/3 is possible. We're already had 5 named storms that were not hurricanes. I think we could see 12-14 named storms, still.

[ninel conde]

still 9/6/3 for the rest of the season?

As I said yesterday, 9/6/3 is impossible. 9/4/3 is possible. We're already had 5 named storms that were not hurricanes. I think we could see 12-14 named storms, still.

sorry, i thought you said that you were going with 14/6/3 for the season now which would be 9/6/3 for the rest of the season.

[wxman57]

Checking surface reports in the eastern Gulf, I can identify a surface trof (inverted) along 87W. Pressures in the area of squalls are approaching 1019mb. Not very low. Should keep an eye on the storms for any signs of consolidation and persistence.

[hurricanekid416]

Where is this thing going towards Texas or Florida

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-87&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[Stormlover2012]

Texas

[ROCK]

Where is this thing going towards Texas or Florida

doesnt look like its in a hurry to move anywhere...

[Hurricaneman]

I think if it persists it may be lemoned this evening and maybe if it maintains until tomorrow it may be invested

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[tolakram]

Nearby buoys, from east to west.

Overview: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

[tolakram]

Saved shear analysis.

[Hammy]

pressures don't seem to be falling, and are rising if anything.

[wxman57]

pressures don't seem to be falling, and are rising if anything.

I noticed that. Pressures rose a bit in the last few hours. 12Z GFS moves the vorticity into the TX coast by sunrise on Saturday. I see NHC mentioned it on the new outlook. 10% chance. Probably about right. Should weaken as it progresses westward, at least that's what the GFS does with the vorticity center over the next 48 hrs.

[tolakram]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED WHILE THE TROUGH
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER PASCH

[ROCK]

I see some mid level rotation...if you speed the loop up...

go to the 1KM view and animate 10 frames.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Stormcenter]

Here's an interesting loop of the NE GOM disturbance.


http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12