Northern Gulf

#41 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 1:10 pm

Here I go again ...

Hey gang, please use the URL command when you are going to include a link to another website, ok?! It is the rules and all. :wink:

LaBreeze · #42 Postby **LaBreeze** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 1:11 pm

Isn't this "blob" expected to move westward across the GOM? Local met stated a slight increase in showers due to this. Can use the rain.

#43 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 1:17 pm

I see the NHC mentioned it. Yes, this is headed westward La Breeze.

#44 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 1:25 pm

Here's a sat pic with surface obs plotted. I identified the trof axis. Pressures still high in the region - 1016mb to 1018mb. Could produce wind gusts 45-50 kts at some of the offshore platforms in the next 24 hours, but that's about it.

#45 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 1:30 pm

Looks better than 92L from last week.

wxman57 wrote:Here's a sat pic with surface obs plotted. I identified the trof axis. Pressures still high in the region - 1016mb to 1018mb. Could produce wind gusts 45-50 kts at some of the offshore platforms in the next 24 hours, but that's about it.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/NEGulf.gif

#46 Postby **northjaxpro** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 1:31 pm

The moisture from that trough in the GOM is dumping plenty of heavy rain here in Northeast Florida. Got a report from a friend who lives down near the World Golf Village in St Johns county and over 4.25 inches was measured down there, which prompted NWS Jax office to issue Flash flood warning in that portion of the area. Also was a report of a waterspout south of Ponte Vedra around noon today.

#47 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 1:59 pm

See some pressure drops at the buoys east of the mouth of the MS, if the convection can persist you never know.

caneman · #48 Postby **caneman** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 2:18 pm

That is right Dean. On visible it has that Pinwheel look. BEARS watching.

bohaiboy · #49 Postby **bohaiboy** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 2:21 pm

Our weather information group states same thing, moving westward with wind gusts as high as 50-60 mph in squalls. Hopefully it will skirt the coast and bring some needed rain to us here in South Texas.

JGrin87 · #50 Postby **JGrin87** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 2:28 pm

It appears there is at least some sort of spin with this system, whether it be at the surface, I do not know.

#51 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 2:37 pm

There is an MLC south of Pensacola but don't see any evidence of anything at the surface thus far.

hurricanekid416 · #52 Postby **hurricanekid416** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 2:46 pm

Could this be like eduoard in 2008

#53 Postby **StormTracker** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 2:56 pm

Possibly...

#54 Postby **Frank P** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 3:04 pm

Nice flare up of thunderstorms in the southeast section of the blob developing right now......

Javlin · #55 Postby **Javlin** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 3:18 pm

Well I may stand correct(not the last time) if you speed up the loop to max on the RGB looks like some kind of rotation is happening most likely MLC of sorts.No way but W it looks with the what I call a zonal front line to the N? Hope it works out to rain TX

RGB loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html
EUS loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

#56 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 3:19 pm

Any rotation is definitely not at the surface, as surface obs indicate only a trof axis.

stormhunter7 · #57 Postby **stormhunter7** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 3:26 pm

i sorta disagree,

and am trying to get more evidence that there is a surface low now

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

go to 1km and click NW Florida Phndle... and do a 24 loop. there is a surface swirls 86.2w 29.0n? (area) very small swirls, below mid levels and upper level clouds... and deep convection appears on the way?

#58 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 3:35 pm

stormhunter7 wrote:i sorta disagree, and am trying to get more evidence that there is a surface low now

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

go to 1km and click NW Florida Phndle... and do a 24 loop. there is a surface swirls 86.2w 29.0n? (area) very small swirls, below mid levels and upper level clouds... and deep convection appears on the way?

I can see the rotation you're looking at. I'm looking at quite a few surface obs across the NE Gulf. There's a ship near 29N/86.2W with a SE wind at 15 kts and 1016.1mb pressure. WSW of there a ways is another ship with an ESE wind and another with a SE wind. About 6-8 ships in the region, none of which indicates any LLC. It's often very hard to say that a circulation seen by satellite exists at the surface. Surface obs don't lie, though.

ROCK · #59 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 4:17 pm

nothing at the surface yet.....you would know if it did. it would bust out some -80C hot towers as it is sitting on one of the hottest parts of the basin... 8-)

ROCK · #60 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 4:28 pm

18Z NAM wants to make this into a 1012 closed low into mid-Texas coast.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

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