Global model runs discussion

[meriland23]

Not sure why you are expecting consistency at 384 hours. Although, the fact that most GFS runs are developing storms now, instead of showing nothing is the only thing to take away.

Nono, don't have specific expectations for something that far out, but it is interesting to see what trend GFS is taking or leaning towards.

[meriland23]

The GFS is doing this because of a favorable MJO after 10 days is my hunch and may show these systems stronger in later runs

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Yeah, crazy how in less than 24 hrs, they went from thinking there will be one storm to potentially four *if my eyes don't deceive me from the 18z run*

[blp]

Well, I call this a pretty big change for the EURO. I don't know if this was posted before.

July forecast


August forecast

[OuterBanker]

Well, I call this a pretty big change for the EURO. I don't know if this was posted before.

July forecast


August forecast

Just about everyone was a little dubious about the Euro predicting the higher pressures back in July. Glad to see it came around to it's senses.

The lower pressures just off the east coast does concern me a bit though.

[cycloneye]

blp,the EURSIP came out today also with a reversal showing now lower pressures mainly at MDR.

[blp]

blp,the EURSIP came out today also with a reversal showing now lower pressures mainly at MDR.

[]http://oi44.tinypic.com/2qd94cz.jpg[/img]

Indeed, interesting. If correct, could be a late season for us this year. The Euro has not performed well this year in a few areas, I wonder what happened.

[OuterBanker]

Geeze Cycloneye. According to the Eurosip all basins are going to have lower pressures. Looks like activity will ramp up worldwide. Interesting because till now all basins were below average. I wonder if that is about to reverse itself?

[blp]

I read the below from Levi on another board. Could explain why the delay and might reinforce my earlier thinking that the MJO forecasts may be off.

Levi Cowan

The CFS is slower than other models into phases 1 and 2 with the MJO, and perhaps slower is better given the bias in recent forecasts trying to get it there too fast, something Eric Blake just pointed out on Twitter. That may explain why the GFS keeps delaying TC genesis forecasts as well.

[hurricanehunter69]

Well, I would have to say the 18Z GFS is definitely the most active run I've seen this year. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... imageSize=

[ninel conde]

did the 0Z GFS continue to show what the 18z did? i assume by the lack of posts it doesnt. i dont even want to look anymore.

ok, i had to look out to 168

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

nothing thru next fri at least. it does show a deepening east coast and gom trof which would block anything from the US had anything formed and the trof will nullify any efforts for formation in the GOM or west carib. also, its looking clear a big stationary high is going to form for labor day weekend over the central states which will reinforce the east coast trof and the nw flow in the west atlantic. at the very least this will greatly reduce any chance of "close in" development.

[Alyono]

GFS still delaying development

we need to actually get a good disturbance before we start looking at favorable large scale conditions. We dont live in an idealized model where favorable conditions result in spontaneous genesis... we need an incipient disturbance

[cycloneye]

The sleeping giant has awaken with an active MDR in 240 hours.

[ninel conde]

The sleeping giant has awaken with a active MDR in 240 hours.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... z/f240.gif

those are areas of lower pressure, but are they well developed storms?

[tolakram]

Euro a few things at 240 hours now.



Paid Euro shows both those as 1010 lows, but for the Euro just showing something is significant. The Blob near Florida looks to form east of the Georgia SC coast and move SW toward Florida. 240 hours though!

GFS at 240



GFS has something at 180, which is the limit I'm more comfortable with.



Canadian at 180



NavGem has it as well.

Sites

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[ninel conde]

GFS still delaying development

we need to actually get a good disturbance before we start looking at favorable large scale conditions. We dont live in an idealized model where favorable conditions result in spontaneous genesis... we need an incipient disturbance

pretty soon when the GFS shows development at the "end of the run" we will be talking about october. i assume the positive MJO is still coming?

[tolakram]

The sleeping giant has awaken with a active MDR in 240 hours.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... z/f240.gif

those are areas of lower pressure, but are they well developed storms?

The euro usually doesn't show anything, especially when the storms are weak. Persistence is key. I don't think the Euro showing circles at 240 means anything other than the model sees much more favorable conditions in 240 hours.

[cycloneye]

The sleeping giant has awaken with a active MDR in 240 hours.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... z/f240.gif

those are areas of lower pressure, but are they well developed storms?

As my collegue said,this model didn't have low pressures and to have them now is a change.

[ninel conde]

The sleeping giant has awaken with a active MDR in 240 hours.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... z/f240.gif

those are areas of lower pressure, but are they well developed storms?

As my collegue said,this model didn't have low pressures and to have them now is a change.

thats a start at least.

[tolakram]

Here is the 24 and 48 hour vertical instability anomaly charts from http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

I'm not 100% sure what these indicate, the product description is not clear, but I believe it's analyzed over a 24 and 48 hour period. Regardless, as time moves on I think we will see areas of below normal shrinking.

0 to 24 hours


24 to 48 hours

[Stormcenter]

Lots of bark but no bite. IMO