Global model runs discussion

[Hammy]

GFS has now been persistent in developing something near the end of the month, and has now gone several runs without dropping or delaying development. I've seen it before but if it continues through all of today there will likely be some truth to it.

[Alyono]

GFS also keeps pushing back the development time frame... making it highly suspect

[Fego]

Now we have the consistency that we were looking: GFS keeps delaying development. Still don't see a clear pattern but I guess time will be the best way to confirm any outlook.

[Hammy]

I'm not quite sure where the development is getting delayed at this point, of the last five runs it shows, if anything, the point of the next storm being pushed foward gradually:
22/06: nothing
22/12: 1008mb at 01/12z
22/18: 1001mb at 31/18z
23/00: 1005mb at 31/12z
23/06: 1004mb at 31/00z with 997mb at 31/06, which is the first time since late Aug was near the end of the run that I've seen <1000mb shown by GFS on that date.

If anything the runs have at least been consistent (and even going back before yesterday) of essentially waking up the Atlantic on 8/31.

[ninel conde]

Lots of bark but no bite. IMO

i aint heard alot of barking, lol. not even from mr bastardi.

[PTrackerLA]

Wow I think we finally have some consistency between the GFS and Euro. Hour 240 of the 12z GFS is strikingly similar to 240hrs of the 00z Euro with two systems in the MDR. Could this finally be lift off for the season? Both are at low latitudes which would indicate a potential threat to the islands as well..

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has no hurricane that develops thru September 8.

[Hammy]

12z GFS has no hurricane develops thru September 8.

I don't quite see this nothing that was referred to.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013082312/gfsfull_pres_wind_atl_65.png GFS continues to show development on the last day of the month
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013082312/gfsfull_pres_wind_atl_72.png

[Steve]

GFS, both 06 and 12z (but especially 06z) shows a piece of energy splitting off from a trough and hanging around the eastern Gulf states and finally milling around the Gulf. It's low resolution by that point, but it makes sense that there will be at least a North-Central/Northeast Gulf threat in early September.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=wnatl&cycle=20130823%2012%20UTC&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fourpan=no&imageSize=M

I haven't run it on other levels beyond MSLP, but the indication is clear. Also, I wanted to add to everyone who keeps posting how dead the season has been so far, that the surface troughs that have been coming down to the Gulf Coast most of the summer may be doing some of the work to disburse the heat into the temperate zones. The local evidence is the ridiculous saturation from SE LA through the entire SE US. The warm air is out front/east of the troughs and is probably partly responsible for the evacuation of heat.

[blp]

The CMC prefers the wave in front for development while the GFS prefers the one behind.

12z CMC

[WeatherEmperor]

12z GFS has no hurricane that develops thru September 8.

that is getting close to record territory at least for the period from 1995 to present.

I am really curious where you will be when the season actually does breaks out. ....just because the GFS shows no hurricane doesnt mean squat. The GFS isnt about intensity. Everyone who knows about that.

Rock. I wanted to add something to this. 10 days ago I was looking at the GFS and it showed nothing through 240hrs. Here we are 10 days later and it was right...there is nothing out there. The fact that the gFS today barely shows anything for the next upcoming 10 days could be right. You and I both know that we wont go stormless from here until the end of the season. Obviously there will be more tropical cyclones from now until November. The point is that until the models come together and agree on increased development posibilities, we cant just sit here and say that things will get active. Climatology isnt enough. Mjo forecasts arent enough. We need model output to show development. We need to focus on model trends and consistency and not on the "it will become active soon" mentality.

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[tolakram]

STAY ON TOPIC PLEASE

Let's discuss model runs and thoughts directly related to those runs and NOT the season.

[ROCK]

maybe so Ricky but I know an uptick when I see one...GFS be damned...we have all seen lulls before but what gets me is just because the GFS doesnt see anything doesnt mean a hill of beans. It never saw Felix or Dean...and when it finally did see them they were 1010MB lows....

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

ECMWF continues hinting development in the Central Atlantic for the upcoming week

Here's the 12Z link
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... ml#picture

[ROCK]

ECMWF continues hinting development in the Central Atlantic for the upcoming week

Here's the 12Z link
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... ml#picture

yep...thats what I call an up-tick in activity if the EURO is showing it....

[USTropics]

The Euro is notorious for not developing systems in the MDR/Deep tropics due to a resolution issue. So when I see the Euro beginning to show an increase in activity in ~240 hours, I take note. While the message is don't look at the models outside of 5 days, accuracy is extremely poor (and this is true), trends become important, especially as we enter the peak of the season. Below, I took the 3 models that have extended range forecasts (GFS, EURO, FIM), which all show an increase in activity in ~240 hours.

GFS:


Euro:


FIM:

[Hammy]

latest GFS run out, shows development now on Aug 30 as opposed to 31st
[url]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013082318/gfsfull_pres_wind_atl_58.png[\url]
995mb on Aug 31
[url]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013082318/gfsfull_pres_wind_atl_64.png[\url]
989mb on Sep 2
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013082318/gfsfull_pres_wind_atl_68.png

consistency for development at month's end continues, and with the Euro starting to hint at development this could be when the Atlantic wakes up from its long summer nap.

[sunnyday]

Is there an idea where this one might be headed IF it does materialize?

[Alyono]

the GFS only develops anything after the resolution truncation

Would not read too much into it

[Alyono]

Is there an idea where this one might be headed IF it does materialize?

similar evolution to Fred 2009 according to the GFS... quickly sheared and dissipates