Northern Gulf

[thetruesms]

:uarrow:

Well, it is ROCK's favorite tropical weather model now. I was just curious.

Regardless of development, it's probably no secret that the entire state of Texas is cheering this disturbance on to grow healthy and happy and rain itself out on our state.

Agreed, hope you guys do get some rain. It was gut wrenching to watch 92L being that close to the Texas coast but all the convection being streamlined by the cold front north towards the northern GOM states/Florida.

Yes, please, take it. We've been inundated this year - 60 of the past 68 days in Tallahassee have seen at least a trace of rain.

[vbhoutex]

Could be wrong but I don't think it is moving west or at all currently.

http://www.wjhg.com/weather/interactiveradar

Surprisingly it also looks like the thunderstorms are winding down as they near the coast. At this point I am not impressed, but wary of the possibilities. Can see the apparent mid-level circulation just off the mouth of the Mississippi. Now going to check the buoys and see if there is any changes since earlier today.

[PauleinHouston]

Greatly appreciate the information...from what I've seen in the past, these pouches frequently are predecessors to an actual numbered invest.

CIMMS has this as an invest (HS26L) already...http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

RAMMB has a floater on it as well...think NHC might have a number for it shortly....http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp

Latest Vis floater: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

The numbering tells you that it is not an actual "Invest", which are operationally numbered from 90-99, but part of the "pouch" designation that came out of the PREDICT field project a couple years ago (http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013.html). The UW site is just using some imprecise terminology.

I actually prefer the pouch idea to track things, as it actually has a physical meaning, rather than the somewhat arbitrary Invest tag, which may or may not actually indicate any real potential for development.

[Dean4Storms]

Heavy rain and winds from the South to 35mph pushing here into Miramar Bch. from this mess.

[txwxpirate]

Here's the latest from our Houston NWS


US National Weather Service Houston-Galveston Texas shared a link.



Keeping an eye on an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Gulf.
National Hurricane Center has a 20 percent chance of development. It is poorly organized and is surrounded by dry air on 3 sides at the present time. This wave should move across the northern Gulf and eventually move over Southeast Texas on Sunday and Monday bringing a good chance for rainfall - possibly even heavy rainfall.

Stay tuned.

[baytownwx]

Brooks Garner from KHOU posted this YouTube video on Facebook:

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=U-xZLsqC--g&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DU-xZLsqC--g

[vbhoutex]

Could be wrong but I don't think it is moving west or at all currently.

http://www.wjhg.com/weather/interactiveradar

Surprisingly it also looks like the thunderstorms are winding down as they near the coast. At this point I am not impressed, but wary of the possibilities. Can see the apparent mid-level circulation just off the mouth of the Mississippi. Now going to check the buoys and see if there is any changes since earlier today.

And my 2nd tour of the day is over. Still no surface circulation present, but am seeing some hints it may be trying. IE, no West winds to the S of the system, but ESE(with one rougue NW)on the E side, with E or ENE on the N side and one N wind on the West side. Pressures are dropping slowly across the entire area, except for at on station I checked. And yes we are cheering in TX for this system to move West and bring us some rain. However, we only want the rain please, nothing else.

[ozonepete]

CIMMS has this as an invest (HS26L) already...http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

RAMMB has a floater on it as well...think NHC might have a number for it shortly....http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp

Latest Vis floater: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

The numbering tells you that it is not an actual "Invest", which are operationally numbered from 90-99, but part of the "pouch" designation that came out of the PREDICT field project a couple years ago (http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013.html). The UW site is just using some imprecise terminology.

I actually prefer the pouch idea to track things, as it actually has a physical meaning, rather than the somewhat arbitrary Invest tag, which may or may not actually indicate any real potential for development.

Hi True. Actually to clarify this, CIMSS is allying with NASA's HS3 Project where they are sending, or considering sending in drones. Here's the link to the project page: http://espo.nasa.gov/missions/hs3/content/HS3_0

I attached an image of CIMSS main tropical page with the notice circled. So from now on whenever there is a possible developing area they will tag it as an invest and you can click on that "I" symbol on the map and get some pretty good local info including satellite images. Bottom line is all 3 of the Atlantic invests they have now are real areas that they feel could develop. I am not so sure about this new one but the other two near Africa have scheduled drone flights for today and tomorrow.

Just one correction/edit: It appeared from their page they were scheduling some flights, but it is not very clear at all. I haven't had time to research it any further.

[Bailey1777]

the circulation represented on the khou video.....what level is that at....the mid?

[Aric Dunn]

it has a ways to go but has a decent chance ..

[Stormcenter]

This is a pretty good radar loop of the area.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=lix&loop=yes

[vbhoutex]

the circulation represented on the khou video.....what level is that at....the mid?

Yes the circulation present with this system is currently at the mid-levels.

[Bailey1777]

thanks VB bring on the rain.

[MGC]

Stiff SE winds have started to blow on the Mississippi Sound this afternoon, the resultant white caps are quite pretty to watch. No doubt a MCL is just off the mouth of the river. Don't appear to be moving much. Given time it could bore down to the surface. Gotta keep watching for a west wind on the rigs down there. IF that happens this thing could spin up quickly.....MGC

[wxman57]

Cloud tops warming and I see an outflow boundary moving westward nearing the mid LA coast now. No pressure falls, and no evidence of an LLC. Development still not likely, but it's something to keep an eye on. With any luck it will bring SE TX some rain on Sunday.

[Aric Dunn]

Cloud tops warming and I see an outflow boundary moving westward nearing the mid LA coast now. No pressure falls, and no evidence of an LLC. Development still not likely, but it's something to keep an eye on. With any luck it will bring SE TX some rain on Sunday.

[img]http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Dist3.gif[/ig]

yep what little bit of organization it tried to get going has ended.. needs to be watched either way

[Stormcenter]

wxman57 didn't you post this earlier.

Anyway I do see a new burst to the sw of the mouth of Miss.

Cloud tops warming and I see an outflow boundary moving westward nearing the mid LA coast now. No pressure falls, and no evidence of an LLC. Development still not likely, but it's something to keep an eye on. With any luck it will bring SE TX some rain on Sunday.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Dist3.gif

[Sanibel]

Could be pseudo-curvature induced by the upper level.

[wxman57]

Organization continues to diminish this afternoon/evening. That's good. Don't need a storm, need rain. And look at all the moisture tracking north into the southern Gulf. That can't hurt our rain chances in Texas.

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%-10%.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN DIMINISHING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THERE ARE NO
INDICATIONS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE
TEXAS AND MEXICO COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT
BEFORE THEN IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.