Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Ntxw]

A little update on seasonal ACE for the Atlantic basin currently is 36% of normal. Given that the models are not showing anything substantially believable the next week to round out August, unless a surprise long tracked large hurricane develops in the next 7 days it's quite possible we will start September with a ACE value below 30%. Between now and peak ACE averages begins to rise substantially.

[caneman]

Thanks NT

A little update on seasonal ACE for the Atlantic basin currently is 36% of normal. Given that the models are not showing anything substantially believable the next week to round out August, unless a surprise long tracked large hurricane develops in the next 7 days it's quite possible we will start September with a ACE value below 30%. Between now and peak ACE averages begins to rise substantially.

Now, these are undeniable facts. We are in fact off to a slow start and unless we hit a period of hyperactivity there will likely be missed forecasts.

[otowntiger]

Thanks NT

A little update on seasonal ACE for the Atlantic basin currently is 36% of normal. Given that the models are not showing anything substantially believable the next week to round out August, unless a surprise long tracked large hurricane develops in the next 7 days it's quite possible we will start September with a ACE value below 30%. Between now and peak ACE averages begins to rise substantially.

Now, these are undeniable facts. We are in fact off to a slow start and unless we hit a period of hyperactivity there will likely be missed forecasts.

From a hurricane "enthusiast" standpoint that is bad news - boring! But from a property owner and person who loves people its nice to know we could possibly have a significantly sub average season. I don't want to see my insurance rates go any higher and while in the process of trying to sell one house and buy another I'm for less excitement in this department. Having said all this we could have only one hurricane all season but if it is a major one that hits just the wrong area it won't matter how un-busy the rest of the season is.

[ninel conde]

Thanks NT

A little update on seasonal ACE for the Atlantic basin currently is 36% of normal. Given that the models are not showing anything substantially believable the next week to round out August, unless a surprise long tracked large hurricane develops in the next 7 days it's quite possible we will start September with a ACE value below 30%. Between now and peak ACE averages begins to rise substantially.

Now, these are undeniable facts. We are in fact off to a slow start and unless we hit a period of hyperactivity there will likely be missed forecasts.

i think missed forecasts are a given now.

[ronjon]

The tropics are heating up as evidenced by the GOM and western caribbean disturbances. Will only be a matter of time. We don't need models when you can see it with your plain ole eyes! Some of these same things were said about previous hyperactive seasons at this point...too funny. I've been around long enough that it happens almost like a light switch being flicked on.

[TheStormExpert]

The tropics are heating up as evidenced by the GOM and western caribbean disturbances. Will only be a matter of time. We don't need models when you can see it with your plain ole eyes! Some of these same things were said about previous hyperactive seasons at this point...too funny. I've been around long enough that it happens almost like a light switch being flicked on.

Yeah the MJO seems to already maybe be working its way from the E. Pacific into the GoM, and W. Caribbean. Of course this is just my unprofessional thoughts.

[ROCK]

The tropics are heating up as evidenced by the GOM and western caribbean disturbances. Will only be a matter of time. We don't need models when you can see it with your plain ole eyes! Some of these same things were said about previous hyperactive seasons at this point...too funny. I've been around long enough that it happens almost like a light switch being flicked on.

agree....even today the EURO shows developement in the MDR next week...just like a light switch...

[LarryWx]

Well, today is still another in a long strong of days in which the Euro ens. mean predicts the strongest peak/near peak season MJO phase 1 at least since the 1979 phase 1 peak that occurred when David and Frederic formed. This is being forecasted for the last few days of this month and into early Sep. after a few days of phase 8. The GFS ens. mean is fairly similar.

Ivan of 2004 formed during phase 1 though it was only barely outside the circle.

Since 1995, a pretty high ~25% of days in phase 1 during Sep. have had a TC genesis (highest of any phase). To put that into perspective, that's at the rate of 7 TC's per Sep. vs. the 1995-2012 rate of 5 TC's per Sep. for all MJO phases, combined. Also, 5 of the 7 Sep's since 1995 that have been in phase 1 have had a TC genesis during phase 1. When considering all of this, keep in mind that this would, assuming halfway decent validated model forecasts, be the strongest phase 1 by a very wide margin for early to mid Sep. since 1995. All of the others were just outside the circle. The only one far outside the circle since 1995 in Sep. (similar to what's being forecasted) was LATE in Sep. (1999).

There have been only 29 days in phase 1 in Sep. since 1995. Only seven of the 18 Sep.'s have had a portion in phase 1. Seven TC's formed during these 29 days: four H's and 3 TS's. 4 of these 7 hit the CONUS with Ivan the strongest hit.

So, I'm curious if anyone here who has a good feel for the MJO has an opinion about this. Is the quiet going to continue and this likely be one of the few phase 1's since 1995 that hasn't produced a TC even if it has the very strong amplitude that is being forecasted? Arguably, the MJO would be about as favorable as it can be in Sep. considering the combo of phase 1 AND it being very strong. Or is it going to get active?

[Alyono]

I almost wonder if this is going to be another 1977 at this rate. We must consider that ALL basins have below average activity this year.

Perhaps we have a global quiet year. Happens from time to time

[Yellow Evan]

I almost wonder if this is going to be another 1977 at this rate. We must consider that ALL basins have below average activity this year.

Perhaps we have a global quiet year. Happens from time to time

We just had one in 2010 IMO.

[SFLcane]

Just a matter of time now...

[Alyono]

2010 ACE was well above average in the Atlantic in 2010. I think 1977 had well below for all basins

[RL3AO]

2010 ACE was well above average in the Atlantic in 2010. I think 1977 had well below for all basins

You can catch it on the left side of Maue's 12 month running average for global hurricanes.




Also, the 24 month running ACE total is quite impressive too. Shows that the past five years as been almost at 1970s levels, mostly thanks to the West Pacific.

[hurricanehunter69]

The basin looks like it's starting to heat up. Check out the vigorous wave out of the NW Caribbean, cruising into the gulf. This wave looks like it might merge with the already 20% disturbance in the N gulf? Also, check out the remnants of Erin....Ex Erin is lookin better and moving in an increasingly better environment. Finally, check out how the MDR is moistening up, and squeezing out the stable air. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[ConvergenceZone]

I almost wonder if this is going to be another 1977 at this rate. We must consider that ALL basins have below average activity this year.

Perhaps we have a global quiet year. Happens from time to time

You could be right. I can't believe how lucky the US has been without having a major hurricane strike land. It's really hard to say though if there will be a major hurricane even over water this year..... I do think we will get a at least 2 hurricanes though between now and November, but hard to say if any will be majors.

[Alyono]

I almost wonder if this is going to be another 1977 at this rate. We must consider that ALL basins have below average activity this year.

Perhaps we have a global quiet year. Happens from time to time

You could be right. I can't believe how lucky the US has been without having a major hurricane strike land. It's really hard to say though if there will be a major hurricane even over water this year..... I do think we will get a at least 2 hurricanes though between now and November, but hard to say if any will be majors.

US sure wasnt lucky last year! Large "weaker" hurricanes can be more destructive than small, intense ones

[Ntxw]

I almost wonder if this is going to be another 1977 at this rate. We must consider that ALL basins have below average activity this year.

Perhaps we have a global quiet year. Happens from time to time

Couldn't have said it better. I know some people get annoyed that posters sometimes pick on the Atlantic for being slow and blah but right now this is true for ALL basins. The WPAC is barely producing half of a normal season there, they aren't even producing what a normal EPAC group would put out. So all this dry air, sinking air and what not is not limited to the Atlantic.

Except for the CPAC, something otherworldly has been happening there

[ConvergenceZone]

I almost wonder if this is going to be another 1977 at this rate. We must consider that ALL basins have below average activity this year.

Perhaps we have a global quiet year. Happens from time to time

You could be right. I can't believe how lucky the US has been without having a major hurricane strike land. It's really hard to say though if there will be a major hurricane even over water this year..... I do think we will get a at least 2 hurricanes though between now and November, but hard to say if any will be majors.

US sure wasnt lucky last year! Large "weaker" hurricanes can be more destructive than small, intense ones

I meant as far as a major hitting land. I just can't believe how incredibly lucky the US has been to avoid MAJOR cane landfall for so many years. It almost defies odds and is difficult to comprehend....

[ConvergenceZone]

I almost wonder if this is going to be another 1977 at this rate. We must consider that ALL basins have below average activity this year.

Perhaps we have a global quiet year. Happens from time to time

Couldn't have said it better. I know some people get annoyed that posters sometimes pick on the Atlantic for being slow and blah but right now this is true for ALL basins. The WPAC is barely producing half of a normal season there, they aren't even producing what a normal EPAC group would put out. So all this dry air, sinking air and what not is not limited to the Atlantic.

Except for the CPAC, something otherworldly has been happening there

Yea, when the NHC predicts a real active year, I just pretty much ignore it and this season is a good reason why I ignore it....

[Alyono]

I meant as far as a major hitting land. I just can't believe how incredibly lucky the US has been to avoid MAJOR cane landfall for so many years. It almost defies odds and is difficult to comprehend....

the point is... you are focusing on majors when majors mean nothing. Does not really matter what the peak winds are in a very small portion of the storm