Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[RL3AO]

I meant as far as a major hitting land. I just can't believe how incredibly lucky the US has been to avoid MAJOR cane landfall for so many years. It almost defies odds and is difficult to comprehend....

The term "major" is misleading, because it relies on the outdated Saffir-Simpson scale. Water is what kills people, yet the public solely relies on a windscale to judge potential impacts of hurricanes. By definition, Ike and Sandy were not majors when they made landfall in the US. However, I'd bet people in New Jersey and Texas would argue that those storms made a "major" impact on their lives.

[ConvergenceZone]

I meant as far as a major hitting land. I just can't believe how incredibly lucky the US has been to avoid MAJOR cane landfall for so many years. It almost defies odds and is difficult to comprehend....

the point is... you are focusing on majors when majors mean nothing. Does not really matter what the peak winds are in a very small portion of the storm

Then blame the media and the weather channel for shoving in our faces every year that "the US avoids another major cane from hitting land once again!"..........

[ConvergenceZone]

I meant as far as a major hitting land. I just can't believe how incredibly lucky the US has been to avoid MAJOR cane landfall for so many years. It almost defies odds and is difficult to comprehend....

The term "major" is misleading, because it relies on the outdated Saffir-Simpson scale. Water is what kills people, yet the public solely relies on a windscale to judge potential impacts of hurricanes. By definition, Ike and Sandy were not majors when they made landfall in the US. However, I'd bet people in New Jersey and Texas would argue that those storms made a "major" impact on their lives.

Are you stating that it wouldn't be any worse if a cat 5 hit land as opposed to a cat 1 or 2?? I always thought it would be.......I think I'd rather have a cat 1 hit than a major cat 5 any day of the week.........

[Alyono]

I meant as far as a major hitting land. I just can't believe how incredibly lucky the US has been to avoid MAJOR cane landfall for so many years. It almost defies odds and is difficult to comprehend....

The term "major" is misleading, because it relies on the outdated Saffir-Simpson scale. Water is what kills people, yet the public solely relies on a windscale to judge potential impacts of hurricanes. By definition, Ike and Sandy were not majors when they made landfall in the US. However, I'd bet people in New Jersey and Texas would argue that those storms made a "major" impact on their lives.

So does that mean that it wouldn't be any worse if a cat 5 hit land?? I always thought it would be.......I think I'd rather have a cat 1 hit than a major cat 5 any day of the week.........

a small cat 5 would cause less damage than a large cat 1 because a far small area would be impacted. We've conclusively demonstrated that the past few years

[ConvergenceZone]

a small cat 5 would cause less damage than a large cat 1 because a far small area would be impacted. We've conclusively demonstrated that the past few years

I understand what you are saying....Then bring on the cat 5s!!!!!! I don't feel so bad now for wanting them I would much rather have a cat 5 then as opposed to what people had to go through with Sandy.... Hopefully we will get 1 cat 5 this year anyway....

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Of course, it depends on where the storm hits. I'm sure a small Category 5 hitting Miami would have a price tag and death toll much higher than a large Category 1 landfall in the same location...

[SoupBone]

I meant as far as a major hitting land. I just can't believe how incredibly lucky the US has been to avoid MAJOR cane landfall for so many years. It almost defies odds and is difficult to comprehend....

It doesn't defy odds though, if you consider how old the earth is and how small of a window we've recorded data. It's simply impossible to say that. It's possible that the U.S. went 100 years without a major landfall hurricane, we just haven't been around long enough to have witnessed it, or found evidence to support it.

Just wanted to add, I don't believe we ever went 100 years without a landfall, I'm just saying that it's simply impossible for us to say with any certainty.

[abajan]

I almost wonder if this is going to be another 1977 at this rate. We must consider that ALL basins have below average activity this year.

Perhaps we have a global quiet year. Happens from time to time

Could sunspots (or the lack thereof) be partly responsible for this lack of activity?

[HedwigTramp]

a small cat 5 would cause less damage than a large cat 1 because a far small area would be impacted. We've conclusively demonstrated that the past few years

I understand what you are saying....Then bring on the cat 5s!!!!!! I don't feel so bad now for wanting them I would much rather have a cat 5 then as opposed to what people had to go through with Sandy.... Hopefully we will get 1 cat 5 this year anyway....

How would you react if others were wishing for an "exciting" 9.0 quake in northern California?
Cat 4s and 5s at landfall are nasty beasts and I would be a happy camper if they became extinct.

Remember that there is some unlucky soul living in the center of the cone of any cane.

[Hammy]

a small cat 5 would cause less damage than a large cat 1 because a far small area would be impacted. We've conclusively demonstrated that the past few years

I understand what you are saying....Then bring on the cat 5s!!!!!! I don't feel so bad now for wanting them I would much rather have a cat 5 then as opposed to what people had to go through with Sandy.... Hopefully we will get 1 cat 5 this year anyway....

How would you react if others were wishing for an "exciting" 9.0 quake in northern California?
Cat 4s and 5s at landfall are nasty beasts and I would be a happy camper if they became extinct.

Remember that there is some unlucky soul living in the center of the cone of any cane.

nothing wrong with wanting to watch a hurricane spin in the open ocean far from land.

[MGC]

I'm sure Andrew would still be the damage king if the hurricane had tracked a bit more north and went through Miami instead of Homestead. Lots of expensive real estate up that way. Would be nice if we could get through the 1013 season without a hurricane forming.....MGC

[ConvergenceZone]

a small cat 5 would cause less damage than a large cat 1 because a far small area would be impacted. We've conclusively demonstrated that the past few years

I understand what you are saying....Then bring on the cat 5s!!!!!! I don't feel so bad now for wanting them I would much rather have a cat 5 then as opposed to what people had to go through with Sandy.... Hopefully we will get 1 cat 5 this year anyway....

How would you react if others were wishing for an "exciting" 9.0 quake in northern California?
Cat 4s and 5s at landfall are nasty beasts and I would be a happy camper if they became extinct.

Remember that there is some unlucky soul living in the center of the cone of any cane.

Nope, I've learned tonight that non major's are are much nastier....So if you are going to wish for development, might as well wish for the less nastier of the two....

[Hurricane Alexis]

a small cat 5 would cause less damage than a large cat 1 because a far small area would be impacted. We've conclusively demonstrated that the past few years

I understand what you are saying....Then bring on the cat 5s!!!!!! I don't feel so bad now for wanting them I would much rather have a cat 5 then as opposed to what people had to go through with Sandy.... Hopefully we will get 1 cat 5 this year anyway....

Nope, I've learned tonight that non major's are are much nastier....So if you are going to wish for development, might as well wish for the less nastier of the two....

Low end hurricanes can be extremely devastating but let's not forget that a cat 5 moving right over a major metro area would absolute obliterate the city.

[Alyono]

of course, a direct hit of a small cat 5 would be awful

However, the odds are quite small that it would make the direct hit

as for the season... the large scale pattern simply is not favorable this year. Given what I am seeing in the GFS, I am starting to wonder if we will even get to 15 storms this year

[ninel conde]

of course, a direct hit of a small cat 5 would be awful

However, the odds are quite small that it would make the direct hit

as for the season... the large scale pattern simply is not favorable this year. Given what I am seeing in the GFS, I am starting to wonder if we will even get to 15 storms this year

not close to 15. every day that goes by the gfs pushes back by one day any development. right now im starting to wonder if any canes develop. GFS shows a few lows out to 384 this morning but no canes out to sept 9. rather amazing. MJO, if it really does materialize, might be able to negate the dry air enough for a burst of 2 or 3 storms in sept. im confident the season ends early as the nw flow over the east coast will limit any development in the gom/carib.

[otowntiger]

What activity so far this season??

[ninel conde]

What activity so far this season??

Touche!!

[ninel conde]

time to spread a little cheer from mr bastardi.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 10m

ecmwf ensembles showing 3-5 mb pressure falls in sw atlantic basin means in 11-15 day period. Cap about to come off hurricane season

[psyclone]

I know it's human nature (we see the same behavior in securities markets) but the bearish crowd is probably overplaying their hand a bit here. Suggesting no hurricanes at all form this season? I mean really? When was the last time the Atlantic hurricane season failed to produce a single hurricane? That is absurdly unlikely. Even the El Nino strangled 1997 season managed to hurl a major cane. We'll most certainly get canes and likely at least a couple of majors. Of course that says nothing about whether those storms will impact anyone. On the other hand, with each passing day the bear case becomes more compelling. August has been wasted. It is a key month in the hurricane season and it's been torched. That alone plus the dim prospects on the immediate horizon mean expectations need to be reeled in. the likelihood of my preseason guess of 16-8-4 increasingly looks to have powerball-like odds of coming to fruition. But there's no way I'd throw in the towel at this point.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

What activity so far this season??

Touche!!

double touché