ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

No change from the Neutral status for the next few months is what the ENSO models have in their mid August update. Maybe El Nino for next Summer as they creep up at the end.

[Ntxw]

Nino 3.4 came down to -0.4C this week. The little bumps up and down continue in neutral territory.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

JB is calling for a winter like 09-10 which is great for us in Houston but wasnt that a weak el nino year? I honestly cant remember.... Maybe it was weak la nina....

[Ntxw]

JB is calling for a winter like 09-10 which is great for us in Houston but wasnt that a weak el nino year? I honestly cant remember.... Maybe it was weak la nina....

2009/2010 was moderate borderline strong El Nino. It was a blockbuster winter for many east of the rockies. Doubt we will get that in terms of ENSO this year.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

JB is calling for a winter like 09-10 which is great for us in Houston but wasnt that a weak el nino year? I honestly cant remember.... Maybe it was weak la nina....

2009/2010 was moderate borderline strong El Nino. It was a blockbuster winter for many east of the rockies. Doubt we will get that in terms of ENSO this year.

The PDO was not well-defined like it is this year either. We've seen several times...the past few winters actually...that the PDO easily trumps most other factors taken into consideration for the winter.

[Ntxw]

2009/2010 was moderate borderline strong El Nino. It was a blockbuster winter for many east of the rockies. Doubt we will get that in terms of ENSO this year.
The PDO was not well-defined like it is this year either. We've seen several times...the past few winters actually...that the PDO easily trumps most other factors taken into consideration for the winter.

Very much agreed, especially the PDO SST's involved with the NPAC. If the PDO was weaker (even if it was cold) it wouldn't be so overwhelming but the fact is it has been quite strong to cold values the past several years and trumps much of the other signals of late for winter forecasting.

[Ptarmigan]

JB is calling for a winter like 09-10 which is great for us in Houston but wasnt that a weak el nino year? I honestly cant remember.... Maybe it was weak la nina....

2009-2010 was El Nino, a Modoki El Nino. It was moderate/strong El Nino. It had produced one of the coldest winter on record.

[NDG]

JB is calling for a winter like 09-10 which is great for us in Houston but wasnt that a weak el nino year? I honestly cant remember.... Maybe it was weak la nina....

2009-2010 was El Nino, a Modoki El Nino. It was moderate/strong El Nino. It had produced one of the coldest winter on record.

I don't think the '09-'10 cold winter had much to do with the El Niño, which was moderate at best, the cold winter had more to do with the persistent -AO and -NAO and with the combination of the El Niño of course, IMO.

[Kingarabian]

JB is calling for a winter like 09-10 which is great for us in Houston but wasnt that a weak el nino year? I honestly cant remember.... Maybe it was weak la nina....

2009-2010 was El Nino, a Modoki El Nino. It was moderate/strong El Nino. It had produced one of the coldest winter on record.

I think 2009-2010 was a traditional, Eastern Pacific El-Nino.

[Yellow Evan]

JB is calling for a winter like 09-10 which is great for us in Houston but wasnt that a weak el nino year? I honestly cant remember.... Maybe it was weak la nina....

2009-2010 was El Nino, a Modoki El Nino. It was moderate/strong El Nino. It had produced one of the coldest winter on record.

I think 2009-2010 was a traditional, Eastern Pacific El-Nino.

AFAIK No, look at the activity in the CPAC that year.

[Alyono]

those models that immediately show warming probably should be thrown out. Not likely to have a sudden reversal

[Ptarmigan]

JB is calling for a winter like 09-10 which is great for us in Houston but wasnt that a weak el nino year? I honestly cant remember.... Maybe it was weak la nina....

2009-2010 was El Nino, a Modoki El Nino. It was moderate/strong El Nino. It had produced one of the coldest winter on record.

I don't think the '09-'10 cold winter had much to do with the El Niño, which was moderate at best, the cold winter had more to do with the persistent -AO and -NAO and with the combination of the El Niño of course, IMO.

I found that El Nino has a correlation with Arctic Oscillation (AO), but not North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), despite the fact they are similar. It is a negative correlation between AO and El Nino. A warmer El Nino means a more negative AO.

[supercane4867]

Nino3.4 is currently running wayyyyyyyyy into the La-nina territory

[Ntxw]

There are currently westerlies heading through the western ENSO regions of the CPAC. This is associated with the moving MJO/Kelvin wave. It's possible if not likely we'll see a rise in Nino 3.4 soon. How much? My guess is bump up again like we've already seen.

So far this week



Last week, notice the change in winds on the right side

[supercane4867]

Definitely an epic bust for the models that predicted a borderline to full-fledged El Nino

[Ntxw]

It's been awhile since there has been talk of SOI so I'm going to update it a bit today.

SOI average value for last 30 days: 1.25
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SOI average value for last 90 days: 6.3
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Latest daily SOI value: -15.2

August has spent much of the time coming down from the high near Nina values based on 30 day SOI from July. This has been the case for much of last year and this year. Once the SOI is about to reach the threshold of Nino or Nina it halts and reverses. Chaotic as it has been for the most part it has done well predicting neutral values even though at the time ocean temps pointed cold or hot.

[Kingarabian]

SOI has become negative. Go figure.

[Ntxw]

With that Nino 3.4 is up some to -0.1C from the -0.4C.

[Ntxw]

ENSO 3.4 went up a tiny bit, continuing the 2 week trend of warming up slightly as of 9/9.

Nino 1+2: -0.9C
Nino 3: -0.3C
Nino 3.4: 0.0C
Nino 4: 0.1C

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No big changes for SOI of late, remains very neutral and fairly stable as of 9/9.

Average for last 30 days: -1.1
Average for last 90 days: 4.2
Daily contribution to SOI: 6.7

[Ntxw]

ENSO 3.4 remained the same this week.

Nino 1+2: -0.4C
Nino 3: -0.2C
Nino 3.4: 0.0C
Nino 4: 0.0C

There remains a lot of OHC in the northern hemisphere/Pacific, still comparable to values seen during El Nino. However the tropical Pacific remains quite cool as the exception.