Tropical Wave Over Central America to enter ePac (Is 95E)

[hurricanes1234]

This thread is for the tropical wave moving over Central America and entering the eastern east Pacific. This is the latest outlook:

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

Is this wave the one the models bring to major hurricane status near the Baja California Peninsula?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Well, this is what I think will happen, The Area of the south coast of Mexico and Guatemala turns North-west and becomes the hurricane that models have been predicting. The T-wave over central america continues to trek on across the ocean becoming Tropical Storm Kiko. We may see a little fujiwara effect between Juliette and Kiko.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

No, the wave has just entered the EPAC. The one over Panama could form though.

[Yellow Evan]

So much for a major.

[Extratropical94]

10/70

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ANY DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

I may be wrong, but don't they use the "NEAR ... percent" term for (near) 0% only, not for 10% like here?

[Yellow Evan]

This will IMO be invested soon.

[cycloneye]

This is Invest 95E. Go to the Invest 95E thread to continue the discussions.