Northern Gulf

[ROCK]

get that MLC look again....ugh....what a tease...

I guess I will check some buoys...

[baytownwx]

850mb vorticity has really increased this morning

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

[Portastorm]

850mb vorticity has really increased this morning

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

If you look back for 24 hours, it appears to have done the same thing yesterday. Some strong vorticity built up and then dissipated. Seems similar today.

[baytownwx]

850mb vorticity has really increased this morning

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

If you look back for 24 hours, it appears to have done the same thing yesterday. Some strong vorticity built up and then dissipated. Seems similar today.

Though, it probably won't do much but hopefully bring us good rains, this is the strongest I've seen the vorticity associated it. Come on rain

[Portastorm]

Yep. Agreed. I hope it keeps that vorticity as it moves onto the Texas coast. The healthier it is, the better for us.

[HurriGuy]

Radar doesn't do this system justice. Here in south cental LA we have been getting nonstop sheets of rain all morning. It just feels like a system is approaching.

[Portastorm]

Radar doesn't do this system justice. Here in south cental LA we have been getting nonstop sheets of rain all morning. It just feels like a system is approaching.

Based on NOLA radar, there appears to be a circulation/rotation about 25-30 miles south-southeast of NOLA.

[TexWx]

Radar doesn't do this system justice. Here in south cental LA we have been getting nonstop sheets of rain all morning. It just feels like a system is approaching.

Quit Bragging

Has this blob moved 1 degree West in 24 hours?

[LaBreeze]

I'm in Vermilion Parish, just west of Vermilion Bay, and it has become increasingly breezy over the morning. Now, I can see darker clouds on the eastern horizon and the clouds are moving fairly quickly from NE to SW.

[HurriGuy]

Almost all the rain we have gotten hasn't even been picked up on radar.

[vbhoutex]

get that MLC look again....ugh....what a tease...

I guess I will check some buoys...

Ok, you've had an hour to check the buoys. What is your verdict?

edit @ 12:10pm cdt - definitely no hint of any surface reflection and pressures are steady or rising. Now to check several radars.

[HurriGuy]

I basically live NW about 70 miles inland of the MLC and its been shower after shower all morning. Still none of it is being picked up by radar. So nice to see this deep tropical moisture though. Trying to push it on through to Texas!

[HurriGuy]

Yeah that pressure isn't anywhere close to dropping. Winds still out the east. Just looks like a soggy weekend.

[wxman57]

Absolutely no evidence of an LLC in the vast number of surface obs across the NW Gulf. Not too much of a trof axis, either. Pressures are abnormally high out there for this time of year, too (1015mb-1018mb). Development still unlikely but hopeful for rain in TX.

[Extratropical94]

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[thetruesms]

Hi True. Actually to clarify this, CIMSS is allying with NASA's HS3 Project where they are sending, or considering sending in drones. Here's the link to the project page: http://espo.nasa.gov/missions/hs3/content/HS3_0

I attached an image of CIMSS main tropical page with the notice circled. So from now on whenever there is a possible developing area they will tag it as an invest and you can click on that "I" symbol on the map and get some pretty good local info including satellite images. Bottom line is all 3 of the Atlantic invests they have now are real areas that they feel could develop. I am not so sure about this new one but the other two near Africa have scheduled drone flights for today and tomorrow.

Oh good, the pouch naming is being held across field projects. I'm glad this did not die with PREDICT, and is living on in HS3 and hopefully into the future. I rather like it.

Also, that explains the HS designator. I probably should have connected the dots on that on my own.

[vbhoutex]

Absolutely no evidence of an LLC in the vast number of surface obs across the NW Gulf. Not too much of a trof axis, either. Pressures are abnormally high out there for this time of year, too (1015mb-1018mb). Development still unlikely but hopeful for rain in TX.

What is making you still hopeful for rain for us in SE TX Wxman? Maybe I am just a pessimist or maybe it is semantics, but when I say rain, I mean more than the dribbles we have gotten from the last few "storms" that came through my area of Houston. Last graphic I saw showed Harris County in the 0.25"-0.50" range which in this drought is like spitting on a hot sidewalk and watching the steam.

[Stormcenter]

Yeah I know pressures are high and no west winds but again it sure looks interesting.


http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GOM&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20130824&endTime=-1&duration=12

[Sanibel]

Obviously trying to curl-up. A weak center (or coincidental vort) is visible sliding west by Vermilion Bay.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

There is nothing out there. Just got back from new Orleans and never even rained once. What rain you see on radar is drying up over land. Lake Ponchartrain had white caps this morning and now nothing but a light easterly breeze. Too many are getting fooled by satellite presentation this year it seems.