How many named systems will form in September?
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145358
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
How many named systems will form in September?
Oh folks,here is the September poll that will close on August 31 at 3:12 PM EDT. I voted for six.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145358
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re:
Gustywind wrote:I voted for 8.because August is the 8th month of the year
This is the September poll.

0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2183
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:04 pm
- Location: Gonzales, LA
Re: How many named systems will form in September?
Well since I first voted for four then decided to drop to three last poll, think I will stay at three for September. I'm in I'll believe when I see it mode now. Conditions haven't changed much, models keep pushing development back, and just tired of listening to just wait two more weeks 

0 likes
- Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3538
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
- Location: Hamburg, Germany
- Contact:
going with two because, at this point, anything beyond that is just a shot in the dark.
0 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- northtxboy
- Category 1
- Posts: 262
- Age: 43
- Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 1:50 pm
- Location: Windom Tx
- Contact:
4/2/1, I think most of them will be Caribbean or Gulf systems.
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1794
- Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:20 am
- Location: Toms River, NJ
Re: How many named systems will form in September?
I went with 5, I'm thinking 5/3/2 for September. I can't believe I said 7 for August, wow that was a complete fail, but I see more people are far more conservative for September than they were for August when most called for 5-6 storms.
While I understand why people are conservative, do note that September is the peak month for storms, the MJO will be here for the peak of the season, vertical wind shear has been below average, and with the MJO, the amount of dry air will continue to gradually fade and storms will form. There's a lot of heat energy that has to get distributed from the tropics to the mid-latitudes so we're bound to see several storms, a few strong ones too.
Without an El Nino, it's hard not to see this season blowing up at some point. If things do bust, then there will be plenty of things to do research on as almost every agency has called for an active season.
While I understand why people are conservative, do note that September is the peak month for storms, the MJO will be here for the peak of the season, vertical wind shear has been below average, and with the MJO, the amount of dry air will continue to gradually fade and storms will form. There's a lot of heat energy that has to get distributed from the tropics to the mid-latitudes so we're bound to see several storms, a few strong ones too.
Without an El Nino, it's hard not to see this season blowing up at some point. If things do bust, then there will be plenty of things to do research on as almost every agency has called for an active season.
0 likes
- Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3538
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
- Location: Hamburg, Germany
- Contact:
Re:
TheStormExpert wrote:Levi Cowan from Tropical Tidbits posted a quick update today and he thinks things are about to quickly ramp up. He expects at least 4 storms, most likely more than that making September above normal in activity. Off topic but remember last September only had 3 storms!
Not even that, we only had Michael (Sep 03) and Nadine (Sep 10) in September. Oscar formed on Oct 03 and both Kirk and Leslie formed in August, but lasted into September.
Edit:
We will see if this September brings only two storms like last year or decides to get active like in 2007.
Back then Erin (#5) dissipated on August 17, TD6 (Felix) formed in the last hours of August and at the end of September we had Melissa and eventually a season total of 15/6/2.
0 likes
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
- Hybridstorm_November2001
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2811
- Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
- Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
- Contact:
- TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 28
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
I think September will catch a lot of people off guard. We're at the end of August with only one weak tropical storm forming in the month. I don't think many people realize that the main issue this season has been sinking air...leading to a stable environment...as a result of a lack of an MJO pulse and strong Bermuda High though. And I think many people underestimate what the upward pulse of the MJO does to the Atlantic. The large uptick in convective activity across the East Pacific and West Atlantic should be telling. Everything else is primed...wind shear is below average, sea surface temperatures are above average, the ITCZ is much farther north than average, tropical waves emerging off Africa are more convective, etc.
Going with 8 named storms. We'll see how that turns out.
Going with 8 named storms. We'll see how that turns out.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 22 guests