ATL: FERNAND - Renmants - Discussion

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Circulation seemed to have lifted a bit farther north over the past few hours. Good chance this becomes Fernand once it emerges tomorrow. Wind shear is low, ocean temperatures are high, and it has the curvature of the coastline working in its favor. Time will be the main inhibitor.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Latest from TAFB -

[Alyono]

watch for a northward center relocation

that TAFB track is MUCH faster than the guidance indicates

[cycloneye]

50%/50%

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY. WHETHER TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OCCURS OR NOT...THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ
MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 95, 2013082500, , BEST, 0, 180N, 911W, 20, 1007, LO

[TexasF6]

OK, I'll say less useless, IF it brings us (Central Texas) some rain. I'm desperate. Lake Travis is miserably low and we neeed this or any Tropical system to help us out! This remains my hope, for now...

[ozonepete]

Winds have gone from east to northeast at Ciudad del Carmen in the last few hours. So the surface center is probably forming where I circled it. This gives it a better than even chance to get to TS before it hits land again if it stays on a WNW motion.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Im going bullish and going with 60mph TS. You get good conditions like this plus the MJO and you have a chance at fast intensification. TS by 5am is my humble prediction.

[hurricanekid416]

Are there wind reports over 40mph sustained

[ROCK]

the MJO pulse is a week or more away.....but I get what you are saying...I think the NGOM trof is pulling up 95L more into the BOC....you can see mid-level clouds streaming up to the NE towards the NGOM. I also think if the trof ever got going it would interesting to see the interaction between the 2 systems....we would have a bad traffic jam in the GOM....

[HurricaneDREW92]

:uarrow: the MJO pulse is a week or more away.....but I get what you are saying...I think the NGOM trof is pulling up 95L more into the BOC....you can see mid-level clouds streaming up to the NE towards the NGOM. I also think if the trof ever got going it would interesting to see the interaction between the 2 systems....we would have a bad traffic jam in the GOM....

Oh, my bad. I think Ive been watching too much TWC

[Blown Away]

Always amazed how a small area like the southern BOC can be so favorable...Seems like the most active area over the past few years...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

:uarrow: the MJO pulse is a week or more away.....but I get what you are saying...I think the NGOM trof is pulling up 95L more into the BOC....you can see mid-level clouds streaming up to the NE towards the NGOM. I also think if the trof ever got going it would interesting to see the interaction between the 2 systems....we would have a bad traffic jam in the GOM....

Oh, my bad. I think Ive been watching too much TWC

Strong velocity potential has already overspread the West Atlantic, so it doesn't matter either way.

[ozonepete]

You beat me to it, Twx13. I was just about to post that image. The MJO effect is already there in the west Atlantic. And it looks like the atmosphere is beginning to respond.

[hurricanehunter69]

I'll go with this one becoming our first hurricane of the year. Betting on the topography enhancer.

[HurricaneDREW92]

I'll go with this one becoming our first hurricane of the year. Betting on the topography enhancer.

It has such a short time over water that I dont think this is a likely scenario. If this had even 6-12 more hours over water than forecast I wouldnt doubt you.
EDIT: Looks like its over water. Besides intensity, it reminds me of 2012s Ernesto.

[CrazyC83]

Conditions are prime for rapid deepening if it stays over water it seems?

[HurricaneDREW92]

Conditions are prime for rapid deepening if it stays over water it seems?

Yes, for the most part this should pull together fairly fast over the conductive BOC.

[Meteorcane]

:uarrow: You beat me to it, Twx13. I was just about to post that image. The MJO effect is already there in the west Atlantic. And it looks like the atmosphere is beginning to respond.

200 mb Velocity potential is proportional to UL divergence?

[bwjnj]

looks more nw movement than wnw and appears to be coming off shore now, just my opinion