ATL: FERNAND - Renmants - Discussion

[Sanibel]

I put a formula on it that the GOM unfavorability has to mix-out still so it will take a while to get it together. Once it gets all its ducks in a row it can spin-up though.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Looks EXTREMELY close to TD status.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Can someone post a gif of the avn floater please?

[tropicwatch]

Floater link
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95L/flash-avn-long.html

[lester]

Can someone post a gif of the avn floater please?

[HurricaneDREW92]

Floater link
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95L/flash-avn-long.html

You can see its likely a TD.

[tropicwatch]

Station SACV4
EPA & Mexican Government Cooperative Program
Location: 19.174N 96.093W
Date: Sun, 25 Aug 2013 14:00:00 UTC
Winds: N (350°) at 27.0 kt gusting to 29.9 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.86 in and steady
Air Temperature: 81.7 F
Dew Point: 75.7 F

[SeGaBob]

Seems to be wrapping up in the last few frames.






http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


_________________
This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanekid416]

When does recon get there

[HurricaneDREW92]

When does recon get there

Afternoon.

[tropicwatch]

It looks like it is getting close to land. Here is a link to the Alvarado radar:

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/alvarado/alvarado.php

[lester]

When does recon get there

They take off at 1:15pm EDT.

[Alyono]

this has until tomorrow afternoon to intensify

Good morning, Al....assuming a vector, of say, 285...how long would you estimate that this system has before landfall(lets assume 8-10kts)?...Grtz from KW, Rich

moving closer to 295 than 285. landfall is likely between Tampico and Tuxpan

[tropicwatch]

I'd say we have a TD:

Station SACV4 - Sacrifice Island, Mexico Station operated by the US EPA & Mexican Government Cooperative Program
Weather Station
Sutron XPERT payload
19.174 N 96.093 W (19°10'27" N 96°5'34" W
Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 360 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 29.9 kts
Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 35.0 kts

[BigB0882]

I don't remember an Invest not getting a model thread. Is it because this is so far south in the BOC that it has no where to go but quickly into land?

[HurricaneDREW92]

Could they call a TD at 2pm?

[wxman57]

Satellite indicates likely TD/TS. Nothing in the way of obs (sfc/ASCAT/OSCAT) to confirm LLC, though. I measure about 100 miles from the coast of Mexico at a heading of 285 deg, about 150 miles offshore at 295 deg. Landfall likely between sunrise and noon tomorrow, probably as a moderate TS. I expect NHC to initiate advisories this afternoon.

[Portastorm]

I don't remember an Invest not getting a model thread. Is it because this is so far south in the BOC that it has no where to go but quickly into land?

There is now. Populate this link:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115503

[Extratropical94]

Could they call a TD at 2pm?

They could issue a special advisory at any time, but with the recon aircraft that is scheduled to investigate the system in a few hours the NHC is likely going to wait until they have some center passes and dropsonde data.

[RL3AO]

As wxman57 said, it looks like a tropical cyclone on satellite. I'd guess recon will all but confirm it.