Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

06z GFS.Very close to NE states. 2001 watch this up there....

Darn Cyclone, I go to sleep yesterday with the models showing very little and then I wake up to this. Thankfully, this is very long range and the early series of end of track solutions expounded by the models seldom ever verifies. I'd be much more worried if it was only say four - three days out, than nearly two weeks away. Still it is something that may require close watching in about eight or nine days.

[meriland23]

What does the overall steering pattern look like?

For 95L it was assumed before to become a fish before it got anywhere near the EC. Now GFS is starting to consistently think it will stay on of below 15 N till it reaches the islands, then heads WNW-NW and drags itself closer along the N-EC.

[Hurricaneman]

I have a feeling this will be lemoned like a 10% 2 day and 30% 5 day by this afternoon and invested tonight or tomorrow

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[SFLcane]

Indeed looks very impressive this morning..moist environment ahead.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has two storms at 126 hours.

[cycloneye]

Indeed looks very impressive this morning..moist environment ahead.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/satellit ... atl_ir.gif

If there is turning,is south of 10N.

[Fego]

If by previous runs, the curve begins right after 55 W.

[cycloneye]

[supercane4867]

Sim-IR showing excellent structure, look at that outflow channel

[meriland23]

Those two storms are significantly more potent this run that 6 hrs ago..

[cycloneye]

171 hours. Definitly stronger run.

[SFLcane]

Indeed looks very impressive this morning..moist environment ahead.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/satellit ... atl_ir.gif

If there is turning,is south of 10N.

yea anything 9-10N is much to my likeing. Models for now though recurve it pretty quickly near 70-75W but plenty of time to watch east coast ridge.

[meriland23]

This is much further south than last run, I would expect the end of this run to hit the NE coast, maybe NY/NJ area? IMO

[gatorcane]

I have a feeling this will be lemoned like a 10% 2 day and 30% 5 day by this afternoon and invested tonight or tomorrow

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It will be interesting to see what the NHC does with this system now that they have the two different development percentages they use for the 5-day outlook and this is the first system we are seeing an Atlantic system with strong model support in the medium range guidance.

Given the strong model support, you would think this gets lemoned pretty soon even though development chances look very low in the 48 hour range.

[SFLcane]

[gatorcane]

252 hours 12Z GFS, saved image:

[Hurricaneman]

This is much further south than last run, I would expect the end of this run to hit the NE coast, maybe NY/NJ area? IMO

Fish storm at 288hrs but looking at the last 4 runs the 18z run yesterday was similar to the 12z run today
the 0z run is up the eastern seaboard, so is the 6Z run so it looks like we have 2 camps, a threat to Bermuda and camp 2 is towards New England but as always I'm taking anything in truncation with a grain of salt so it bears watching

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[storm4u]

recurve

[SFLcane]

no ridge to drive west of 70w..gfs been pretty consistent with that of late.

Bla..

[cycloneye]

What happened to the ridge pattern that was to drive systems thru the Caribbean and SE U.S? Is there a trough in the Eastern CONUS?