ATL: FERNAND - Renmants - Discussion

[HurricaneDREW92]

Feels like somethings just about to pop. Now wouldnt be the slightest suprised if this is 90kt at landfall.

Lets not get crazy now.

Someones gotta jump the gun Honestly though, we have a conductive basin, the MJO, a quickly organizing system. 80-90kts is out there but considering we have 24+hrs over water, its achievable.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I doubt this becomes a hurricane before landfall. The curvature of the coastline has certainly helped spin-up this cyclone, but it does not have much time before moving ashore and there are no signs of an inner core...something needed for rapid intensification. I wouldn't doubt a moderate...maybe strong...tropical storm though.

[Sanibel]

Close to TS Dvorak IMO.


Total guess: Bordeline hurricane at landfall.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneDREW92]

I doubt this becomes a hurricane before landfall. The curvature of the coastline has certainly helped spin-up this cyclone, but it does not have much time before moving ashore and there are no signs of an inner core...something needed for rapid intensification. I wouldn't doubt a moderate...maybe strong...tropical storm though.

I guess we will have to wait for recon

[Dave]

Still waiting for take off...or an hdobs to show they have taken off...

[Hammy]

no takeoff yet--did they cancel due to proximity to land like they did with Barry?

[Aric Dunn]

radar showing a organizing system.

very likely a TS atm.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/alvarado/alvarado.php

[HurricaneDREW92]

no takeoff yet--did they cancel due to proximity to land like they did with Barry?

No. VERY doubtful of THAT

[Dave]

They have cancelled before due to land proximity or air space restrictions by other countries.

[Alyono]

NHC only increased the chance of development to 70 percent

I'd say that is quite low for a developed TC

[tolakram]

live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

latest

[cycloneye]

70%-70%


SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAVE BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
NEAR 10 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE
SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO TONIGHT OR
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
INTERESTS IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

[Dave]

AF 308 on the runway waiting for takeoff to Invest 95L

[South Texas Storms]

I'm thinking the NHC may start advisories on a TS at 4 pm. We'll see though.

[NDG]

Should had been more like 90% if not 100% on the chances of Development in the last TWO for 95L

[NDG]

AF 308 on the runway waiting for takeoff to Invest 95L

It should take a good 2 hrs to get down to it.

[Dave]

AF 308 on the runway waiting for takeoff to Invest 95L

It should take a good 2 hrs to get down to it.

Right NDG a good 2 hr flight down to it...sit back and relax for awhile....I'm going to put up the obs but only a few pictures for now.

[hurricaneCW]

70%? It looks like a strengthening TS to me at least on satellite. The BOC is always such a hotspot for rapidly organizing systems, but due to land proximity always fail to reach their full potential, Hurricane Stan of 2005 really comes to mind.

[wxman57]

What would the NHC do if recon couldn't fly? They're going to have to make upgrade decisions without recon confirmation occasionally. And with ASCAT so sporadic, there may not be that data either.

[SouthDadeFish]

What would the NHC do if recon couldn't fly? They're going to have to make upgrade decisions without recon confirmation occasionally. And with ASCAT so sporadic, there may not be that data either.

This is why, I believe, every time they gave a 70% chance or higher last year the system developed 100% of the time. They get very conservative when the system is very likely to develop.