ATL: FERNAND - Renmants - Discussion

#241 Postby **brunota2003** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 5:40 pm

The 52 knot one still had rain rates of 20 mm. I use 10 mm as my baseline, anything over maybe 12 starts getting into reduction territory, anything 10 and under is good as long as it isn't flagged...11 and 12 can go either way.

#242 Postby **RL3AO** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 5:43 pm

Center is very close to the coast. Appears to be about 20 miles south of the NHC position.

#243 Postby **NDG** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 5:44 pm

RL3AO wrote:Guys...will you please ignore SFMR. Look at the flight level winds. They will give you better and more consistent data.

Flight level winds still support for them to upgrade it to a Tropical Storm, my guess 50 mph.

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#244 Postby **ozonepete** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 5:45 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Nice shot from AMSUB satellite. Kind of looks like an eyewall forming.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... W.90pc.jpg

yeah radar also showing what may be the beginning of a eyewall feature.

Amazing how frequently you can see rapid intensification in the BOC, even that close to land. Sure looks like it's trying to form an eyewall.

#245 Postby **NDG** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 5:47 pm

RL3AO wrote:Center is very close to the coast. Appears to be about 20 miles south of the NHC position.

Yes, I estimate it to be around 30 miles east of Veracruz, should be making landfall in the next 3-4 hrs, IMO.

Hammy · #246 Postby **Hammy** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 5:48 pm

NDG wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Center is very close to the coast. Appears to be about 20 miles south of the NHC position.

Yes, I estimate it to be around 30 miles east of Veracruz, should be making landfall in the next 3-4 hrs, IMO.

looks like they got there just in time for the peak.

#247 Postby **brunota2003** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 5:49 pm

We have Fernand!

#248 Postby **brunota2003** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 5:51 pm

000
WTNT61 KNHC 252247
TCUAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
645 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM FERNAND...

AROUND 630 PM CDT...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS IN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAD INCREASED TO AT LEAST 45 MPH...
75 KM/H...MAKING THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM FERNAND (PRONOUNCED
FAIR-NAHN).

A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 700 PM CDT...2300
UTC...TO INCREASE THE 12-HOUR INTENSITY TO 50 KT AND TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE CURRENT
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF 630 PM CDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 95.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

#249 Postby **Ntxw** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 5:56 pm

Very Barry-esque looking and almost similar tracks, latest satellite view

#250 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 6:08 pm

What are the chances of this pulling a Humberto (2007)?

#251 Postby **lester** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 6:08 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:What are the chances of this pulling a Humberto (2007)?

With it being very close to land...almost no chance.

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #252 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 6:15 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:What are the chances of this pulling a Humberto (2007)?

It only has a few more hours before landfall. I maintain that we'll get a moderate tropical storm out of this. 50-60 mph.

Perhaps if it had moved a little slower over the past 24 hours, it would've approached hurricane intensity.

#253 Postby **ozonepete** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 6:37 pm

I agree. It's just too late. If it had another 12 hours I'm pretty sure it would have since it's definitely been building an eyewall in the mid-levels. (Although the NHC is saying 12 hours til landfall that seems way too long given the forward speed and distance from land.)

#254 Postby **Alyono** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 6:42 pm

ozonepete wrote::uarrow: I agree. It's just too late. If it had another 12 hours I'm pretty sure it would have since it's definitely been building an eyewall in the mid-levels. (Although the NHC is saying 12 hours til landfall that seems way too long given the forward speed and distance from land.)

that 12 hours is from 1800 UTC. The first forecast point is 0600 UTC

SeGaBob · #255 Postby **SeGaBob** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 6:43 pm

NHC is forecasting it to reach 60mph winds...So maybe a moderate TS.

#256 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 6:51 pm

Recon has 1003.1mb with a 22 kt SFMR, so pressure likely 1001mb now.

#257 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 6:54 pm

Radar center looks to be north of the recon center.

#258 Postby **tolakram** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 6:58 pm

live loop

vis http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-95&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

ir http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-95&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=5

latest

#259 Postby **ozonepete** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 7:08 pm

Alyono wrote:
ozonepete wrote::uarrow: I agree. It's just too late. If it had another 12 hours I'm pretty sure it would have since it's definitely been building an eyewall in the mid-levels. (Although the NHC is saying 12 hours til landfall that seems way too long given the forward speed and distance from land.)

that 12 hours is from 1800 UTC. The first forecast point is 0600 UTC

Thanks, Alyono. My bad.

Cyclenall · #260 Postby **Cyclenall** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 7:10 pm

I stopped watching the tropics for about 4+ days and its been a week since a full check and a short-lived TS name taker comes right when I check in. I was expecting nothing but this isn't that large of a step from that.

CrazyC83 wrote:What are the chances of this pulling a Humberto (2007)?

2%.

lester wrote:With it being very close to land...almost no chance.

Your right for the wrong reasons, Humberto was close to land when it was exploding but I thought the overall structure of him 10 hours before landfall was amazing to begin with so he was set properly for the blow-out.

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:What are the chances of this pulling a Humberto (2007)?

It only has a few more hours before landfall. I maintain that we'll get a moderate tropical storm out of this. 50-60 mph.

Perhaps if it had moved a little slower over the past 24 hours, it would've approached hurricane intensity.

There's that line again, getting closer to becoming a weather ciche. Most of the time its "would be a hurricane."

ATL: FERNAND - Renmants - Discussion

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