Global model runs discussion

[boca]

it looks like thr tropics will get interesting but the east coast trough looks like it will protect us.

Why do you say that? Are you looking at a map that shows the trough during a time when these storms are forecast to move through?

What Im saying is that it seems like in a 7 to 10 day cycle the east coast trough has been in place as of late,but yes I probably am jumping the gun til we actually have a system out their to track.It more of Im hoping the east coast trough is there to cause a recurvature.

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

2 storms within 7 days.

[SoupBone]

it looks like thr tropics will get interesting but the east coast trough looks like it will protect us.

Why do you say that? Are you looking at a map that shows the trough during a time when these storms are forecast to move through?

What Im saying is that it seems like in a 7 to 10 day cycle the east coast trough has been in place as of late,but yes I probably am jumping the gun til we actually have a system out their to track.It more of Im hoping the east coast trough is there to cause a recurvature.

It's really no big deal. It's the same as people seeing a system developing that far out. Same exact thing.

[meriland23]

it looks like thr tropics will get interesting but the east coast trough looks like it will protect us.

GFS is quite literally, all over the place with the track. The projected intensity is about as consistent as it gets (every run is consistently showing stronger storms) but they do not have a good handle on the projected path yet. 06z showed a storm hitting the NE coast, 12z showed a storm that fished no where near the EC. It has been kind of flip flopping like this for a while, which leads me to believe it will all come down to specific things GFS couldn't really possibly figure till this storm gets going, and doesn't have so far ahead to look (speed of storm, current strength, placement)

[boca]

Once we get a storm to track out there,then we can worry about there the trough or ridge will be but it seems to be on a 7 day cycle as of lately.

[TheStormExpert]

Here in FL especially S. FL all the wet weather and afternoon storms have been on the W. Coast unlike last year or even the past several years! This is due to a constant E. to W. flow which would be due of a stronger than average W. Atlantic ridge (Bermuda High). That's what I think.

[jlauderdal]

Here in FL especially S. FL all the wet weather and afternoon storms have been on the W. Coast unlike last year or even the past several years! This is due to a constant E. to W. flow which would be due of a stronger than average W. Atlantic ridge (Bermuda High). That's what I think.

we had our rains in june and july, aug been very dry..will see how the bermuda high is in 10 days

[gatorcane]

Wow look at the system the 18Z GFS shows in the eastern Atlantic at 192 hours

[blp]

Wow look at the system the 18Z GFS shows in the eastern Atlantic at 192 hours

[]http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/3715/3gkn.png[/img]

It shows a much weaker system with the first one and more ridging. The euro was also weaker with development on the 12z.

[ninel conde]

18Z drastically weakened the first "storm", will later runs drop the 2nd one as well? euro showing no storms through 240. GFS may just be showing climatology. that first wave has an awful lot of dry air to deal with and maybe later runs will drop any storms.

[gatorcane]

Wow look at the system the 18Z GFS shows in the eastern Atlantic at 192 hours

[]http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/3715/3gkn.png[/img]

It shows a much weaker system with the first one and more ridging. The euro was also weaker with development on the 12z.

Yeah I noticed that, we are commenting in the "Tropical Wave Emerging From Africa Thread".

[tolakram]

Here's the vertical instability data and some analysis of the air in the MDR.

You can see that over 48 hours the instability is approaching and exceeding normal in some areas.



The graph representing the entire MDR shows this rise.



Here are saved images of the mid and upper water vapor.

[Blown Away]

Finally seeing action from the models...IMO we will see a bust on the predicted storms #'s and a bust on the prediction of landfalls...Nearly all the model runs have shown recurve with slight chance of NE Caribbean and extreme NE CONUS impacts...JMHO only and no knock on the experts b/c I'm certainly not one...

[Hammy]

18Z drastically weakened the first "storm", will later runs drop the 2nd one as well? euro showing no storms through 240. GFS may just be showing climatology. that first wave has an awful lot of dry air to deal with and maybe later runs will drop any storms.

You might be looking at a very outdated run, 12z still shows at least one storm developing around 168-192 hours

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/f168.gif
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/f192.gif

Nearly all the model runs have shown recurve with slight chance of NE Caribbean and extreme NE CONUS impacts

yet another indication that this will probably fit into a 2001-type season when all is said and done.

[ninel conde]

18Z drastically weakened the first "storm", will later runs drop the 2nd one as well? euro showing no storms through 240. GFS may just be showing climatology. that first wave has an awful lot of dry air to deal with and maybe later runs will drop any storms.

You might be looking at a very outdated run, 12z still shows at least one storm developing around 168-192 hours

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/f168.gif
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/f192.gif

Nearly all the model runs have shown recurve with slight chance of NE Caribbean and extreme NE CONUS impacts

yet another indication that this will probably fit into a 2001-type season when all is said and done.

all i see on the euro is an area of slightly lower pressure. i see nothing indicating a well developed storm.

[CrazyC83]

What's that low that the GFS wants to develop off the east coast later this week - is that tropical in nature? It does go over the Gulf Stream...

[Hammy]

all i see on the euro is an area of slightly lower pressure. i see nothing indicating a well developed storm.

as many others have pointed out, the free version of the euro is very low resolution, as well as a very conservative model--the mere fact that it shows anything given how poor it is at forecasting genesis is in itself fairly significant.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

What's that low that the GFS wants to develop off the east coast later this week - is that tropical in nature? It does go over the Gulf Stream...

Looks extratropical, or perhaps at most subtropical, at least to me. A nor'easter type of system in most respects.

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[Alyono]

all i see on the euro is an area of slightly lower pressure. i see nothing indicating a well developed storm.

as many others have pointed out, the free version of the euro is very low resolution, as well as a very conservative model--the mere fact that it shows anything given how poor it is at forecasting genesis is in itself fairly significant.

the pay version of the EC also does not show significant development

of course, it has been el stinko all year

[Alyono]

all i see on the euro is an area of slightly lower pressure. i see nothing indicating a well developed storm.

as many others have pointed out, the free version of the euro is very low resolution, as well as a very conservative model--the mere fact that it shows anything given how poor it is at forecasting genesis is in itself fairly significant.

the "free" version of the EC has the same resolution as does the pay version. The only difference is the pay version has far more variables and more time stamps