ATL: FERNAND - Renmants - Discussion

#261 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 7:14 pm

25/2345 UTC 19.3N 95.9W T2.5/2.5 FERNAND -- Atlantic

#262 Postby **ozonepete** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 7:14 pm

Can anyone confirm this? The NWS data has 17.15 inches of rain in the last 6 hours at Vera Cruz?! I can't find METARS for this station with precip amounts. Seems crazy... (And I know sometimes these values can be way off)

#263 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 7:15 pm

50 kt FL winds and 55 kt SFMR in moderate rain (44 kt clean). Supports 45 kt, maybe 50 kt depending on rain rate reductions.

#264 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 7:16 pm

ozonepete wrote:Can anyone confirm this? The NWS data has 17.15 inches of rain in the last 6 hours at Vera Cruz?! I can't find METARS for this station with precip amounts. Seems crazy... (And I know sometimes these values can be way off)

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/sfcobsMMVRVeraCruz2013-08-25til2346_zps624f8f42.jpg

That seems very unlikely unless the station is in an area where terrain influences rainfall.

#265 Postby **NDG** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 7:16 pm

I think they go by cm or mm not inches when they report rainfall totals.

HurricaneRyan · #266 Postby **HurricaneRyan** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 7:21 pm

Fernand is the best looking Tropical Storm of the season so far! That's a good sign!

hurricanes1234 · #267 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 7:31 pm

Is the storm over land now?

#268 Postby **NDG** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 7:31 pm

53 mph wind gust near the coast of Veracruz

Conditions at VERV4 as of
(7:00 pm CDT on 08/25/2013)
0000 GMT on 08/26/2013:
Wind Direction (WDIR): NW ( 320 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 36.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 46.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.64 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.12 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.1 °F
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 38.9 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 40.8 kts

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=verv4

#269 Postby **NDG** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 7:34 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Is the storm over land now?

Not yet, it is still offshore about 20-30 miles east of Veracruz.

#270 Postby **ozonepete** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 7:36 pm

NDG wrote::uarrow: I think they go by cm or mm not inches when they report rainfall totals.

Locally yes, but this is through an NWS application which converts it to inches (see column header). Also there are very high mountains just west of the city so there definitely could be orographic lift going on. Ok, I'll keep looking..

#271 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 7:37 pm

00z Best Track.

AL, 06, 2013082600, , BEST, 0, 191N, 958W, 45, 1002, TS

#272 Postby **NDG** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 7:37 pm

Webcam now shows streets in Veracruz flooding.

#273 Postby **brunota2003** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 7:38 pm

Look at the Continous winds and peak gust for the hour. 40 knot winds (I think those are 10-minute winds), with a gust to 53 knots during the hour! So already gusts to 60 mph!

#274 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 7:46 pm

Based on a mix of surface and SFMR data, I would put the intensity at 50 kt right now personally.

#275 Postby **ozonepete** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 7:46 pm

This may very well be legit. If so, holy cow! But still looking for METARS...

#276 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 8:04 pm

Nearly closed eyewall on radar...

#277 Postby **ozonepete** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 8:05 pm

Ok, it's definitely not legit since the 9PM EDT report shows 35 inches, lol.

jinftl · #278 Postby **jinftl** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 8:22 pm

Is it centimeters of rain and not inches - labeled incorrectly? That would be a bit more reasonable - still a deluge of a foot of rain if so

ozonepete wrote:Ok, it's definitely not legit since the 9PM EDT report shows 35 inches, lol.

weatherwindow · #279 Postby **weatherwindow** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 8:23 pm

ozonepete wrote:
NDG wrote::uarrow: I think they go by cm or mm not inches when they report rainfall totals.

Locally yes, but this is through an NWS application which converts it to inches (see column header). Also there are very high mountains just west of the city so there definitely could be orographic lift going on. Ok, I'll keep looking..

Good evening, Pete...perhaps, that total is not as outlandish as it first appears...the site averaged a bit under 3in/hr for six hours...obviously torrential but conceivable given that the long axis of the main feeder band set up over coastal Veracruz state. Running roughly wnw to ese, that relatively stationary band set up early this afternoon, training thunderstorms along the axis with the individual storms moving ese at 25-30kts. If that scenario verifies, I believe it could account for the ~18inches of accum rainfall. Does that sound reasonable to you, Pete?....Grtz from KW, Rich

PS Just saw the 35 inch total, now that I cant account for :oops:

#280 Postby **supercane** » Sun Aug 25, 2013 8:24 pm

Here are the raw METARs as asked for, ozonepete:

MMVR 260057Z RTD 27025G35KT 3/4SM RA SCT008 BKN010CB OVC070 24/24 A2973 RMK 63505 8/97/
MMVR 260006Z 28030G40KT 1/2SM RA HZ BKN008CB OVC070 24/24 A2975 RMK 8/37/ VRBL CONDS
MMVR 252346Z 33020G30KT 1/2SM RA HZ BKN008CB OVC070 24/23 A2975 RMK SLP074 57013 981 61715 8/37/ VRBL CONDS

Source: NCAR-RAP Real-Time Weather Data found at http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/

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