WPAC: Tropical Storm Kong-rey (14W) (Nando, PAGASA)

[mrbagyo]

91w is lucky to survive the strong easterly wind shear yesterday...
GFS's precip forecast is quite scary ( no more LUZON landfall ) - another soaking for southern Luzon and Mindoro Island.

XPQ23 KNES 250328
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 25/0232Z

C. 10.9N

D. 128.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM INITIAL POSITION. DT=1.0 BASED ON 2/10 BANDING. MET
AND PAT ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON

[mrbagyo]

PAGASA upgraded it to trpical depression
Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Tropical Depression "NANDO"
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Sunday, 25 August 2013

The low pressure area East of Dinagat Islands has developed into a tropical depression and was named "NANDO".

Location of Center: 290 km East of Borongan City
(as of 10:00 a.m.)
Coordinates: 11.2°N, 128.6°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 45 kph near the center
Movement: North Nortwest at 13 kph

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5 - 15 mm per hour (moderate - heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.

[vrif]

Latest OSCAT pass.

[RobWESTPACWX]

My video update from earlier today, some thoughts on this new storm and the very real threat of floods it brings across Manila.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qM6hWl3x6cI[/youtube]

[mrbagyo]

TXPQ23 KNES 250936
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 25/0832Z

C. 11.9N

D. 126.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO lack of well
defined circulation center. what can be found in long loop of vis imagery
is very elongated so ending fixes.system may become better organized
after it moves west of the Philippines.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON


WEST???

[mrbagyo]

[Pleasing05]

is it just me or is this storm tracking more westwardly?

[vrif]

JTWC upgraded this TD to 14W already.

edit: They call it TD 14W.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 15.9N 126.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 126.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.5N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.9N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.1N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.4N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 23.4N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 25.7N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 29.5N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 125.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI 250130Z AUG 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW
250130).//
NNNN

[vrif]

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.5 /1005.0mb/ 25.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.5 1.5 1.5

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Another weak storm... I wish this could be a typhoon to help our ACE! [which is just ½ of average]

[vrif]

Upgraded to TS KONG-REY

WTPQ20 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1315 KONG-REY (1315) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 16.0N 125.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 270600UTC 19.0N 124.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 280600UTC 21.1N 123.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 290600UTC 23.2N 122.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[vrif]

OSCAT pass.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (KONG-REY) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REMAIN SHEARED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 261712Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE SHEARED
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH NO OVERALL IMPROVEMENTS TO STRUCTURE OVER
THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
IMAGERY WITH FAIR TO LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO SOME AMBIGUITY IN THE IR
LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY
AMPLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 14W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 14W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STR THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS JAPAN, IS MODIFYING THE STR INTO A MORE
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION WHICH WILL CAUSE TD 14W TO TAKE A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. VWS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO HAMPER THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NEXT DAY. AFTER WHICH,
SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS VWS SHOULD RELAX AS THE SYSTEM
ENTERS THE BREAK OF THE STR, AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES.
C. AT TAU 72, TS 14W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD
AND ACCELERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER
DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM EASTERN CHINA. INCREASING VWS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL
INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING DURING THIS PERIOD AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO ACCELERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST, MAKING LANDFALL WITH
KYUSHU AFTER TAU 96 WHILE CONTINUING TO TRANSITION AND COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120 AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
JAPAN. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF
CONTINUING TO THE LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE AFTER TAU 48 AND OTHER SLIGHT
VARIATIONS IN TRACK SPEED AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD CORE
SYSTEM. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

another textbook wind-sheared tropical cyclone...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (KONG-REY) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO REMAIN
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 262259Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH SHEARED CONVECTION AS THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM HAS REMAINED STEADY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVE IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES AND IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE STORMS CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET
BY AMPLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 14W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 14W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STR THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS JAPAN, IS MODIFYING THE STR INTO A MORE
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION WHICH WILL CAUSE TS 14W TO TAKE A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. VWS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO HAMPER THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST BUT SHOULD
START TO SLIGHTLY RELAX IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
SLOW INTENSIFICATION.
C. AT TAU 72, TS 14W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD
AND ACCELERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER
DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM EASTERN CHINA. INCREASING VWS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL
INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING DURING THIS PERIOD AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO ACCELERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST, MAKING LANDFALL WITH
KYUSHU AROUND TAU 96, WHICH WILL INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING WHILE THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRANSITION INTO COLD CORE SYSTEM. EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU 120 AS TS 14W MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN JAPAN. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
ECMWF CONTINUING TO THE LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE AFTER TAU 48 AND SOME
OTHER SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN TRACK SPEED AND THE EXTENT OF THE RECURVE
AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD CORE SYSTEM. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE EARLY TAUS
AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF CONSENSUS DUE TO THE TERRAIN OF JAPAN IN THE
LATER TAUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[vrif]

WTPQ20 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1315 KONG-REY (1315)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 18.3N 123.8E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 20.7N 122.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 290000UTC 23.7N 122.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 300000UTC 26.9N 122.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

WTPQ30 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 1315 KONG-REY (1315)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 270000 UTC IS FAIR.
TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

ASCAT pass

[RobWESTPACWX]

O ya, this storm very naked for most of today. Shear will most likely be the big story with it. Even in the long range models say the center line moving towards Okinawa. But this photo below fail to mention how sheared the rains and winds will be by that time.

[RobWESTPACWX]

O ya, this storm very naked for most of today. Shear will most likely be the big story with it. Even in the long range models say the center line moving towards Okinawa. But this photo below fail to mention how sheared the rains and winds will be by that time.