Global model runs discussion

[gatorcane]

Has something changed this year with the ECMWF? I know that in past years it has always been a reliable model for tropical cyclone forecasting even with genesis, though normally on the conservative side. We have used the model on this board in the past in helping us figure out if a tropical cyclone will form or not. I can't imagine it would completely miss a significant hurricane if it were to form within say 168 hours in the Atlantic basin. Understandable it misses the type of weak and insignificant systems we have seen so far this year in the Atlantic but are you saying it would probably miss predicting genesis of a significant Atlantic forming system?

[ninel conde]

Has something changed this year with the ECMWF? I know that in past years it has always been a reliable model for tropical cyclone forecasting even with genesis. I can't imagine it would completely miss a significant hurricane if it were to form within say 168 hours in the Atlantic basin. Understandable it misses the type of weak and insignificant systems we have seen so far this year in the Atlantic but are you saying it would probably miss predicting genesis of a significant Atlantic forming system?

maybe there simply hasnt been any well developed systems for it to see. thats why when i keep hearing about how conditions are getting more favorable the first thing i do is check the 240 euro. it has done quite well in my opinion of seeing a rather dried up tropics. still showing nothing.

[Hammy]

Has something changed this year with the ECMWF? I know that in past years it has always been a reliable model for tropical cyclone forecasting even with genesis. I can't imagine it would completely miss a significant hurricane if it were to form within say 168 hours in the Atlantic basin. Understandable it misses the type of weak and insignificant systems we have seen so far this year in the Atlantic but are you saying it would probably miss predicting genesis of a significant Atlantic forming system?

maybe there simply hasnt been any well developed systems for it to see. thats why when i keep hearing about how conditions are getting more favorable the first thing i do is check the 240 euro. it has done quite well in my opinion of seeing a rather dried up tropics. still showing nothing.

There is quite a difference between seeing a moderate intensity storm at 240 hours (quite a ways out to be even close to accurate) and seeing nothing--the Euro has failed to see any of the storms that formed this year beforehand aside from Erin.

[gatorcane]

Yeah but the storms this year in the Atlantic basin so far have all been quite small and weak. If the model can't see these types of systems but can see the significant systems (i.e. the ones we really care about...actual hurricanes), then it's still a good model to use in my opinion. I am curious when a real system (i.e. well-defined hurricane) forms this year if it was able to predict genesis accurately or not.

[ninel conde]

Yeah but the storms this year in the Atlantic basin so far have all been quite small and weak. If the model can't see these types of systems but can see the significant systems (i.e. the ones we really care about...actual hurricanes), then it's still a good model to use in my opinion. I am curious when a real system (i.e. well-defined hurricane) forms this year if it was able to predict genesis accurately or not.

im sure that it will. it has in years past. when the euro and GFS both show a well developed storm then ill take note.

[meriland23]

As Bob Dylan put it .. "Times .. they are a-changin''. I am pretty confident in the consistent prediction of a significant change up coming next week imo. Only thing I would question at this point is whether this extensive lull/long barrier we had will cut the season short (or in half) with less hurr's than expected, or whether mother nature came in late is going to rush to finish her job on time (or go later into the season to make up for lost time). I tend to imagine mother nature this season is a lot like a kid coming in a half hour late for class, and has to finish her assignment (afterschool if need be) before she can go home... interesting analogy, but it was the best I could come up with! This is all just a personal opinion btw.

[tolakram]

Looking at yesterdays 12z run of the euro it had a general splotch of low pressure in the BOC. The vorticity was an oval, but fairly compact.

The euro is never good at predicting a well developed storm prior to formation. I disagree with others that it can't be used at all, but it will rarely show a strong storm. If the euro is showing a blotch of low pressure drifting cross the basin and it's accompanied by an area of vorticity that is fairly compact then it's hinting at development.

We've gone weeks with the euro showing nothing, now it's showing something. That's really all we know.

That's been my experience and is my opinion.

[ROCK]

the EURO showing a closed isobar around a low for multiple runs is a good bet there will be TC genesis. Its never been good at genesis though as I have hugged it for years. Its better with track once a system has formed. So much better that on average over the last 3 years it has out performed the GFS.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Has something changed this year with the ECMWF? I know that in past years it has always been a reliable model for tropical cyclone forecasting even with genesis. I can't imagine it would completely miss a significant hurricane if it were to form within say 168 hours in the Atlantic basin. Understandable it misses the type of weak and insignificant systems we have seen so far this year in the Atlantic but are you saying it would probably miss predicting genesis of a significant Atlantic forming system?

maybe there simply hasnt been any well developed systems for it to see. thats why when i keep hearing about how conditions are getting more favorable the first thing i do is check the 240 euro. it has done quite well in my opinion of seeing a rather dried up tropics. still showing nothing.

That's not really true. The ECMWF has the highest resolution of any global model...if anything, IT should be the one picking up on the weak, short-lived tropical storms, not the others.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

This is how the 00z GFS ends

[USTropics]

Has something changed this year with the ECMWF? I know that in past years it has always been a reliable model for tropical cyclone forecasting even with genesis. I can't imagine it would completely miss a significant hurricane if it were to form within say 168 hours in the Atlantic basin. Understandable it misses the type of weak and insignificant systems we have seen so far this year in the Atlantic but are you saying it would probably miss predicting genesis of a significant Atlantic forming system?

maybe there simply hasnt been any well developed systems for it to see. thats why when i keep hearing about how conditions are getting more favorable the first thing i do is check the 240 euro. it has done quite well in my opinion of seeing a rather dried up tropics. still showing nothing.

That's not really true. The ECMWF has the highest resolution of any global model...if anything, IT should be the one picking up on the weak, short-lived tropical storms, not the others.

The ECMWF does have one of the highest horizontal resolutions at ~25 km (the GFS resolution up to truncation is ~35 km) for the extended range models. The GFDL I believe has a ~10 km resolution and the HWRF has ~5km resolution, but are mainly used for resolving the inner core of systems.

With that said though, there are other revolving issues regarding resolution that creates problems with the ECMWF and cyclogenesis. There was a presentation made at the University of Miami about 3 weeks ago regarding this. Here is an excerpt:

"It is found that errors associated with vorticity, upper-level divergence, low-level convergence, and moisture within and local to easterly waves is a significant source of uncertainty in the genesis forecast. Much of the small-scale error growth and error variance of the ensemble forecast is associated with localized bands of greater vorticity and divergence, likely related to the difficulty in representing convective bands within the tropical wave.. We investigate the degree to which these errors in the mesoscale limit the predictability of genesis forecasts. Lastly, correlations and lag-correlations between errors are presented. ."

You can see the full presentation here: https://ams.confex.com/ams/15MESO/flvgateway.cgi/id/24837?recordingid=24837

[Fego]

Always ending in a very interesting way. Point is that in this run, the GFS doesn't develops the tw/pouch25L. Btw, it sends the tw toward the Caribbean, south of PR.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Just throwing in a quick 2 cents from someone who's been observing the ECMWF handle Wpac TC genesis, we're on our 15th named storm now, and I can remember it forecasting formation of only 1 storm so far and that was typhoon Soulik - it missed all the others as far as I can remember. As others mentioned it kicks into gear nicely when the storms have already formed but for spotting genesis it's so useless I rarely look at it.

Now if it's showing something forming in the Atlantic then that would certainly make me think that it's on to something. Looks like the Atlantic is bursting into life in the models, interesting times ahead!

[ninel conde]

This is how the 00z GFS ends

still not much showing for sept 11, one day after the peak. just 1 storm. im now wondering if the GFS will drop the next storm it shows at day 7.

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... hour=240hr

nothing out to 240. does show rising pressure in the deep tropics.

[Alyono]

Has something changed this year with the ECMWF? I know that in past years it has always been a reliable model for tropical cyclone forecasting even with genesis, though normally on the conservative side. We have used the model on this board in the past in helping us figure out if a tropical cyclone will form or not. I can't imagine it would completely miss a significant hurricane if it were to form within say 168 hours in the Atlantic basin. Understandable it misses the type of weak and insignificant systems we have seen so far this year in the Atlantic but are you saying it would probably miss predicting genesis of a significant Atlantic forming system?

its missed the large typhoons in the WPAC this year

[caneman]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2013082600&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=240hr

nothing out to 240. does show rising pressure in the deep tropics.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2013082600&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=240hr

nothing out to 240. does show rising pressure in the deep tropics.

Has something changed this year with the ECMWF? I know that in past years it has always been a reliable model for tropical cyclone forecasting even with genesis, though normally on the conservative side. We have used the model on this board in the past in helping us figure out if a tropical cyclone will form or not. I can't imagine it would completely miss a significant hurricane if it were to form within say 168 hours in the Atlantic basin. Understandable it misses the type of weak and insignificant systems we have seen so far this year in the Atlantic but are you saying it would probably miss predicting genesis of a significant Atlantic forming system?

its missed the large typhoons in the WPAC this year

There are 3 things that go into making a good model - IMHO. Do they pick up on genesis, and do well with track and intensity (although most models aren't good at intensity). The Euro did beat the GFS in track the last 3 years but not by much (51-49). One thing seems true for this year, there hasn't been much for models to work with.

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=180hr

good news is the 06Z hasnt dropped the next storm yet, though with that pattern its going to recurve at around 40w. the key thing to look for now is can a wave come off the coast and maintain convection?

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2013082600&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=240hr

nothing out to 240. does show rising pressure in the deep tropics.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2013082600&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=240hr

nothing out to 240. does show rising pressure in the deep tropics.

Has something changed this year with the ECMWF? I know that in past years it has always been a reliable model for tropical cyclone forecasting even with genesis, though normally on the conservative side. We have used the model on this board in the past in helping us figure out if a tropical cyclone will form or not. I can't imagine it would completely miss a significant hurricane if it were to form within say 168 hours in the Atlantic basin. Understandable it misses the type of weak and insignificant systems we have seen so far this year in the Atlantic but are you saying it would probably miss predicting genesis of a significant Atlantic forming system?

its missed the large typhoons in the WPAC this year

There are 3 things that go into making a good model - IMHO. Do they pick up on genesis, and do well with track and intensity (although most models aren't good at intensity). The Euro did beat the GFS in track the last 3 years but not by much (51-49). One thing seems true for this year, there hasn't been much for models to work with.

i think the euro has done great in the atlantic this season. if a system of importance were to ever devlop im sure it would show it. the euro has been excellent at seeing the very dry air and it hasnt shown any phantom systems.

['CaneFreak]

Great? It hasn't picked up on hardly one system this year until it already developed. System of importance? So you don't think a LARGE typhoon in the Western Pacific is a system of importance?

i think the euro has done great in the atlantic this season. if a system of importance were to ever devlop im sure it would show it. the euro has been excellent at seeing the very dry air and it hasnt shown any phantom systems.