End of Seasonal Forecast Press Releases

[Frank2]

I'm guessing that if this season does continue as quiet as it's been so far, a push is going to be seen to end Seasonal Forecasting - the percentage of forecasts that have been overdone (or underdone) seems to be far above those that are correct, and worse yet, a dire long-term forecast only hurts the public when it comes to unnecessary increases in oil prices and insurance rates - and by fear forces the public to make unnecessary purchases at a time when many are dealing with a decrease in available income...

As we know the media made much of this years forecast and are irritable that "nothing has happened" because it's also their bread and butter when it comes to ratings (especially for the cable news and weather outlets), so this kind of forecasting really only seems to hurt and not help the public, and is why the Directors of my time were very much against this kind of forecasting, correctly saying 30 years ago that dire seasonal forecasts would only be sensationized...

As they also said, there are just too many variables to correctly make a forecast so many months in advance, and they stressed instead that forecasters and researchers continue to improve their short term skills for the times when a system, in their words, "is on the map"...

Frank

[ninel conde]

you make some good points but im sure some useful info comes from long range forecasts. on the other hand, CSU issued a 2 week forecast for aug 16-29 which was basically a nowcast and they didnt get that right. the research should continue but i would say its time to drop long range landfall forecasts. everyones this season will likely not verify. take CSU as an example. since 2006 i am sure they have almost every season predicted an above normal chance of a major hitting the US coast and since 2006 there have been zero landfalls.

[Ntxw]

I have to respectfully disagree. I think season forecasts can be of good use if communicated correctly. No one should take something that far out for gospel, this is the media's fault for hyping and so fixated on numbers. The only way to get better at something is to keep trying and really in the grand scheme this type of forecasting of TC is still young it will take time to get it right. Personally I don't like how numbers gets so much attention and is one area that needs improvement most. Other than that the science behind is solid imo with a some tweaking here and there needed.

[tolakram]

Failure is the best teacher. If this season really does stay slow then looking back and figuring out why may allow these long range forecasts to improve greatly. On the other hand if the season suddenly takes off then there will be some validation to these predictions that right now seem so horribly wrong.

What I do not understand is the CSU 2 week forecasts. Their strength has always been looking at past seasons for indications of the current season. I'm not sure how this figures into the two week numbers.

This thread would be more appropriate closer to the end of the season, otherwise one might appear to be making a 3 month activity forecast.

[WeatherGuesser]

How long has the Farmer's Almanac been publishing annual forecasts?

I've seen some claims of something around 80% accuracy in some areas.

[thetruesms]

Ah, the tired old trope of "Seasonal forecasts aren't accurate". It's like nobody ever sees the Masters blog post he does every year that shows the June and August seasonal forecasts show skill over climo - the August ones typically show significant skill. Anyone who publishes their method for review gets the benefit of the doubt from me.

This is how science works - it's dirty, it's messy, it takes a long time, it's full of steps forwards and backwards, and it's awesome. If we spent our time waiting until something was perfect before using it, we wouldn't bother forecasting beyond 6 hours . . . or less.

[Frank2]

LOL - when a child the Old Farmer's Almanac was our ONLY long-term forecast (well, that and the ground hog), but even then sometimes they were right and sometimes wrong...

True what was said about practice makes perfect (I'm quoting out of context) - if I'd have stopped riding a bicycle after my first skinned knee I've had never become a successful long-distance cyclist decades later...

My thinking is that the NHC and HRD Directors of 30 years ago didn't care for seasonal forecasts for a few reasons - as mentioned earlier one was the tabloid press issue, and another was that the NHC was created as a warning service to the public and does it's best work when in "war room" mode (as they used to say back then), and to place them in a situation that forced them to generate products that would be sensationized really went against their own better judgement...

In my mind, meteorology will always be like most other sciences - always subject to error, not because people are not doing a good job, but because nature in it's creation is incredibly complex...

Frank

[wxman57]

I'd like to point out that the season isn't quite over yet...

[Frank2]

Sure, and a short time from now people will be running me out of town on a rail (LOL), but right now...

[HurrMark]

Here is what my say is...I think that seasonal forecasts are a good idea, but the problem is that the media (like most things) loves to dramatize this (for instance, if they predict 9 hurricanes forming, you will always see some kind of article saying 9 hurricanes...striking the US!) So I think focusing on a descriptive forecast (70% chance of a more-active-than average season, 20% chance of an average season, 10% chance of a less-active-than average season) with a descipition of an "average" season may be more appropriate. Most of the time, the forecasters get this right, so I don't see any issue with that.

The landfall forecasts, however, I think are very questionable, especially considering major landfalls. I do not know the statistics, but let's say since 2006, every year had a 70% forecast of at least one major landfall. Of course, that has not happened at all in the US, and given the current pattern, we may go yet an eighth consecutive year without one. This can be equated to a simple weather forecast of 70% chance of rain each day for eight days straight. The average person would think with this forecast, they would be deluged. Instead, you see some clouds here and there, maybe some looking very foreboding, but in the end, the ground remains dry. Would you have confidence in that forecaster after that stretch of eight days? It would be quite difficult, in my opininon.

[Portastorm]

Sure, and a short time from now people will be running me out of town on a rail (LOL), but right now...

No Frank ... it wouldn't be tropical season on Storm2K without you around!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

seems way early (weeks from the midseason peak yet) to be calling for the end of forecasting for lack of verification to this point. patience old guy.

the numbers could quickly ramp up and verify for the mid and late parts of the season. after all, it is a full SEASONAL forecast, and not just a first half of the season forecast.

oh yeah, and where is our sun spot obsessed guy? isn't the sun's increased activity going to add some oomph too to the pattern now that it is throwing some spot activity in our direction? -at least that was passed years' discussions that I haven't seen yet this year.

[RL3AO]

Its science. They will fail. They will learn from their mistakes. They will get better, and over time the seasonal forcasts will get very good.

People once thought we should not even attempt to forecast tornado threats because it was impossible to do and would just cause panic. I'm glad the right people didn't listen. It took time, but now I'd say were pretty good at it.

[NDG]

I think is the press, oil speculators, ...etc that blow seasonal forecasts out of proportion.
I think they should continue with their research and their seasonal forecasts. If anything I think they need to do a monthly update on their forecasts during the hurricane season, that would help, IMO.

[cycloneye]

I think is the press, oil speculators, ...etc that blow seasonal forecasts out of proportion.
I think they should continue with their research and their seasonal forecasts. If anything I think they need to do a monthly update on their forecasts during the hurricane season, that would help, IMO.

CSU is doing two week updates. (Next one on the 30th)

[NDG]

I think is the press, oil speculators, ...etc that blow seasonal forecasts out of proportion.
I think they should continue with their research and their seasonal forecasts. If anything I think they need to do a monthly update on their forecasts during the hurricane season, that would help, IMO.

CSU is doing two week updates. (Next one on the 30th)

Yes, I am aware of the biweekly forecasts they are doing during the peak season, but I am talking about all agencies updating their forecasts on a monthly basis as the season starts every year.

[Frank2]

I agree that practice makes perfect, but it's the media and financial speculation that's using and abusing the products, and it's hurting the public when a forecast doesn't work out - sure it's a good thing if a busy seaons isn't, but in May no one knows the outcome and despite that fact the media and fiancial centers turn the forecast into a proclimation, and that's the problem...

Too much information can be a bad thing if not used correctly, and that's why we are unable to know the future - if God gave us that ability mankind would not know what to do with it...

I'll never forget what I was doing 5 minutes before learning about 9/11 - complaining about ants on my desk, so life is lived one minute at a time and not 6 months in advance...

P.S. I recall Bill Gray's visit to the NHC in 1984 - not exactly welcome, because he was there to promote his first-ever seasonal forecast (if I recall it was an El Nino year)...

Frank

[Trader Ron]

I think oil speculation is overblown when it comes to forecasting the hurricane season. Light Sweet Crude dropped $10 between April 4 to April 18. Anyone speculating on a busy season is a fool.
Most smart traders wait until a week before the event. By that time, crude is probably a short.

[Stormcenter]

I personally don't think they offer any value and only end up stressing people out.

[RL3AO]

I personally don't think they offer any value and only end up stressing people out.

Medium to long range weather forecasts is of huge use. The people that start to get good at them will make money. Whether it is energy futures or insurance which use them now, I foresee in the near future these forecasts being used by other sectors of business. What if a forecaster could tell Walmart that it would be a very hot summer over certain regions, with high certainty? They could increase their purchases of say bottled water from their suppliers at a better rate. Say two cents off an extra five million cases? Thats $100,000 of extra profit. Would probably pay for an entire meteorology division for three months. I really do think the two week to six month forecast will be the next big business in meteorology.