End of Seasonal Forecast Press Releases

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I agree with you on this frank. I really could care less about the number portion, forget trying to forecasts numbers just say below avg, avg, above avg then update accordingly. I can't wait til the next update comes out to see what they will say. But what I really don't like is what somebody else mentioned some posts above is the storm/hurricane/major landfall risks. Since I live in SE LA I will use the north central gulf coast as an example. This year we were forecast second only behind Florida to see the biggest risk of a landfalling hurricanes and majors. Have barely had a tropical wave move through here so far. With a front and trough affecting the gulf and east coast just about every week the gulf has been extremely hostile and continues to be so. There is no way of knowing this will be happening through August when forecasts are made in April, may, and early June.

[WeatherEmperor]

I agree with you on this frank. I really could care less about the number portion, forget trying to forecasts numbers just say below avg, avg, above avg then update accordingly. I can't wait til the next update comes out to see what they will say. But what I really don't like is what somebody else mentioned some posts above is the storm/hurricane/major landfall risks. Since I live in SE LA I will use the north central gulf coast as an example. This year we were forecast second only behind Florida to see the biggest risk of a landfalling hurricanes and majors. Have barely had a tropical wave move through here so far. With a front and trough affecting the gulf and east coast just about every week the gulf has been extremely hostile and continues to be so. There is no way of knowing this will be happening through August when forecasts are made in April, may, and early June.

Great post cyclone Mike. I think this is what turns people off the most when there is very little activity in the tropics....the higher than normal risk predictions made in the seasonal forecasts and nothing really to show for. I know the season is far from over, but forecasters have a hard enough time forecasting the 5 day forecast of a storm so imagine how much error a season forecast can be.

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[ninel conde]

i would be fine if they dropped any mention of seasonal landfall forecasts. you can have a general idea but nothing more than that. for instance, if you are expecting a central states ridge and summer heat wave there the natural response would be for a east coast trof so recurves would be likely. but like we saw in 2011 with irene it found a brief window of opportunity to hit the coast.

[Frank2]

Glad to see the thread has so many good comments...

Even short-term forecasts are wrong at times - look at the comments made by TWC just 10 days ago, regarding the midwest's cooler than average summer and how TWC said that would continue...

Guess what - the midwest has been baking the past week...

Frank

P.S. One positive thing about this topic that came to mind yesterday concerning the improvements in tornado forecasting - that has helped because within the short term forecast range it improved the forecasting of severe weather and increased the warning times from a few minutes to almost 15, but even then it shows the improvements have been in the very short term, when the weather responsible is already in existence, and not months in advance...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Interesting topic! Whilst I think the scientific community should very much continue research into seasonal forecasting, it might be an idea to limit the available information that's spread to the general public and mass media. Indeed out here in W Pacific, Dr. Chan is a very well respected professor at the Labroratory for Atmospheric Research at City University of Hong Kong. He and his team used to publicly issue seasonal forecasts on typhoon activity but stopped this practice in 2012 after a string of "bad" forecasts. Quote from the website says:

"The TC activity over the western North Pacific has a significant decreasing trend in recent years. Our prediction scheme, which was first developed in 1997, with an improvement in 2001, however does not incorporate this trend and therefore overestimated the TC activity during the last few years. The prediction scheme is currently under revision and we will not issue the forecasts for the TC activity over the western North Pacific in 2012."

I'm sure they still privately develop forecasts but nothing's been made public this year.

[RL3AO]

P.S. One positive thing about this topic that came to mind yesterday concerning the improvements in tornado forecasting - that has helped because within the short term forecast range it improved the forecasting of severe weather and increased the warning times from a few minutes to almost 15, but even then it shows the improvements have been in the very short term, when the weather responsible is already in existence, and not months in advance...

I meant it more in the sense that the guys at SPC are consistently painting areas that get hit my a major outbreak 5 to 8 days in advance. Obviously this is mostly thanks to the improvement of global models, but it is still a noteworthy meteorological advancement.

[Frank2]

True, and an interesting quote from Dr. Chan - perhaps others should follow his lead and just keep the long-range information within their own circle, since CSU and others have had the same problems, but TWC and AW are in the weather money-making business (TWC names snowstorms, after all) so they are likely not going to like the idea of "less is more" but in reality that's what's needed...

Also interesting about the comment that there is a noteable decrease in cyclone activity - true enough, though of course we'd all immediately think about 2004 and 2005, but it seems those are the exceptions now and not the rule - thankfully...

It was mentioned on one TWC climate change documentary that an increase in the earth's temperature would mean fewer cyclones (based on their meteorological reasons not mentioned here), and perhaps it's true...

When a child we never had seasons that were absent of a hurricane in this part of the world - sure some seasons were less than others, but nothing like we are seeing over the past 30 years...

Frank

[Frank2]

Bump...

[Frank2]

Considering the high numbers at the beginning of the season, so far it's been a busted forecast, but as we know this is not the first time...

[RL3AO]

Even if they fail miserably this season, I still think it is beyond absurd to want to get rid of seasonal forecasts.

[Frank2]

Perhaps they can take a lesson from Dr. Chan and for now keep this product "in-house" until they get better at it - 2006 was another extreme example because most forecasters incorrectly believed it to be a continuation of 2005, but thankfully it was just the opposite...

During my NWS days we had a number of products that were just for the forecasters to use (POPs, etc.) - perhaps that's what's needed here, but unlike the 1980's we live in an age of sensationalism when weather is more entertainment that anything, and the seasonal forecasts are all about that, as the Directors of the 1980's feared they'd become...

Just my opinon here, but again perhaps for now seasonal forecast products need to be withheld from public release because if (if) the current seasonal forecast does bust completely, then next season the public is much less likely to believe anything when it comes to a dire forecast...

Of course yesterday Fox News did give air time to JB who (as usual) said that the coming weeks will see a spike in activity - the man is still at it...

Frank

[mitchell]

this is the media's fault for hyping and so fixated on numbers.

Its not the media's fault. If the University researchers and National Hurricane Center issue press releases and seasonal forecasts with numbers then the media is going to report numbers.

IMO, NOAA can't issue press releases that say this (below) and not expect the media to fixate on the numbers. (The numbers are the meat of the press release)

"The updated outlook calls for a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season. Across the Atlantic Basin for the entire season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook (which includes the activity to date of tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian) projects a 70 percent chance for each of the following ranges:
•13 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including ◦6 to 9 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which
◦3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)


These ranges are above the 30-year seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes."

[Frank2]

I had to laugh yesterday afternoon because during the Saturday morning newscast the local OCM said that because of the DEEP reds in the WV loop there wouldn't be any rain during the day, but at 4:30 yesterday afternoon I was coming out of the supermarket to see a flooding parking lot, because it was pouring cats and dogs....

Everyone coming out of the store was caught off guard and some like myself had an umbrella, but it was raining so hard that I still got wet...

So much for DEEP reds on the WV loop (apparently there was some low level moisture not seen by the young OCM)...

The point is that meteorology will always be an inexact science at best...

So far we've had 9 named systems - 7 weak TS's and two weak Category 1 hurricanes, as opposed to the 14-17 named systems and 3 or more major hurricanes that were predicted back in May so like yesterday's busted forecast the seasonal forecast has turned out to be much different than expected...

God must smile or frown when people try to outguess Him...

Frank

[andrewsurvivor]

I still wouldn't be surprised at all to see a storm in the caribbean threaten us in Oct/Nov. Despite a lackluster season, wouldn't let your guard down just yet. Frontal systems will soon be making their way south which can be a game changer for storms developing to our south especially for Florida.

[Frank2]

Just a guess, but no doubt there will be some serious discussions among the research sector over the winter months as to why the seasonal forecasts were so wrong - my opinion is that they really need to keep these for in-house use only, at least for now...

Back in my NWS days there were forecast products that were for in-house use only, only because they were statisical products that needed forecaster interpretation and were used only as a tool when producing a forecast, but in the seasonal forecast product there's no doubt a problem with how the numbers are determined and to keep issuing bad or erroneous forecasts does nothing for public confidence. You can be sure if the dire forecasts are repeated in a few months not many will pay attention to them, or at least will have the "believe it when I see it" attitude, which means they won't do anything until the system is on the map and on it's way, but ironically that's when meteorology is still at it's best - when the weather is already in existence...

That was shown to be true in the case of the 1993 Superstorm, when the powerful weather system that lead to the event was already crossing the Pacific, but was still 5 or more days away - for certain no one in the Fall of 1992 predicted such a Winter event (at least I don't recall hearing that on TWC or anywhere else), and probably still wouldn't today, but once the responsible weather system exists then it's easier to forecast than weather that is months away from forming...

Frank

[hcane27]

I have thought long and hard about the discussion of keeping long range tropical cyclone forecasts :in house" , and either no landfall forecasts or the same , keeping them "in house". I believe that keeping either of these as "in house" products is not the way to do business , so to speak. The results of studies and process forecasts by groups attempting to forecast tropical systems and their eventual landfalls is cannot justifiably be pushed into the back room anymore than the efforts by the storm chasers who have been chasing , learning , and publicizing their attempts and forecasts for years and which are now being lauded as a "major" advancements in tornado forecasts and safety notification that have saved countless lives. I feel that the continued statements that tropical systems are not of the type that can be predicted well in advance in time are primarily being made by those who either revel in failure because it is not their own , or are a tad jealous when the forecasts turn out because they didn't think of it , or those who , for some reason , truly want to see a major disaster occur (much as those who watch car races for the wrecks) and are angry when it is forecast and doesn't happen. I am not trying to be derogatory to any of the aforementioned groups , just stating my opinion. I am one who is of the belief that the Earth's atmospheric and oceanic systems are closed , and that there are only a certain number of permutations as to cause and effect , begin and end , action and result. That we have so far been unable to determine the necessary factors for deciphering what is happening now , the patterns , and what they all have in common , is no reason to hide them behind the curtain and only allow them to be made seen when they have achieved absolutism and perfection. If those who are trying their best to learn and use that knowledge to make these predictions would only be sure to introduce their forecasts as not necessarily accurate , but an attempt at using what they know to make the prediction process better and thus learn what they are doing wrong or what they are missing in the equation , then the general public should have enough sense to know that they are only attempts at making the light bulb come one , and that it may be a lifetime before those same forecasts can really be accepted as "mostly accurate". They will never be 100% correct , because I doubt we will ever realize a time when we have 100% of the information concerning the variables and the interactions. But then again , I was amazed when we landed men on the moon. Been wrong before and will be again , but I believe we should encourage those attempting the enormous task of forecasting these systems months in advance and applaud them when they are right and wish them well in their endeavors to determine why , when they are wrong.

[chaser1]

.......The results of studies and process forecasts by groups attempting to forecast tropical systems and their eventual landfalls is cannot justifiably be pushed into the back room anymore than the efforts by the storm chasers who have been chasing , learning , and publicizing their attempts and forecasts for years and which are now being lauded as a "major" advancements in tornado forecasts and safety notification that have saved countless lives.....

Couldn't agree more with your entire thought on the subject. In a twist of irony however, I do remember years ago when the "weather establishment" themselves who most frowned upon those actions of storm chasers. Now looking back though, I can better understand the reasoning behind that. In days of past NHC directors, their chief roll was more geared towards observations - public warnings - public safety. I think much of the need for NHC to be "safety spokesperson" for everyone, has been redelegated to Emergency Management divisions and local (municipal authorities). I think that has more appropriately rededicated NWS and/or NHC to the core focus of, well..."forecasting".

Of course, now most often it is the media themselves who are out "in the field" to capture the weather events unfolding, and they seemingly have taken on the dominant role of chastising or pointing fingers at others "potentially exposing themselves to risk" but who share in the same curiosity, wonderment, fascination....whatever one wants to call it. The very fascination to see severe weather unfold and better understand it, is what "is" and what will continue to be the driving force for humanity to strive to better understand and eventually forecast such events. I agree that we shouldn't hide such attempts to forecast better & longer.

My last thoughts on this topic though, are in defense of the media. Just as someone had already posted, I don't like the over-generalization regarding how the seasonal forecast was just so hyped up by the media. Look, as a "weather-nut" myself (and most of you guys too , you gotta know that there were few friends and family that I didn't discuss this years' tropical season's forecast. The sharing or "repeating" of news only becomes sensational when it exaggerated, over-speculated, stretched, or elaborated on. THEN, the general public (or those exposed to the hype) become particularly desensitized to it all. That is when the "cry wolf" syndrome really comes in play. I am willing to beleive that most professional weather departments, agencies, or private firms have no issue with the media's reporting, providing the accuracy in the reporting.

[WeatherWiseGuy]

Frank, I'm with you on this. Pretty much all of us here have more than a passing interest in weather, and in hurricanes in particular. We are much more forgiving and understanding of the scientific process than most of the general public I would venture to say. To me, rolling out these forecasts when it seems they aren't quite ready for prime time serves only to erode the public's confidence in weather forecasting overall. Most people I know who don't have as much interest in the study of weather as we do here, already find the serious business of weather forecasting mildly amusing, especially when a rainy day forecast is blown. Fortunately, forecasters get by with little more than a good natured wink and nod from the public in such cases. I draw the line when we begin forecasting potential catastrophes months in advance and publicize them. As an elementary school educator, I would remind everyone of the Aesop fable, "The Boy Who Cried Wolf". We all know how that turned out.

[Frank2]

I did change the topic to mention the end of seasonal forecast press releases - perhaps not ending the seasonal forecast itself, but definitely at least for now ending the press releases, because as we did see this year they are sensationalized if the press release includes a dire forecast...

Some did bring up good points about the benefit of the research itself, as per tornado research and the improvements made there, but for certain the press release is another issue and better in my opinon just to leave the forecast in-house at least for now and not let it become a tabloid issue...

Sure, the forecast could still leak out to the press, but the forecast could be dealt with in such a way that it would just remain a research paper in the Monthly Weather Review or one of the other scientific journals for those in the field itself and by doing that would leave the media out entirely (from what I learned over the years, the media DO NOT like to inteview researchers or have anything to do with research itself because their work is considered slow and tedious and hard for the public to understand)...

So, perhaps better to have the annual forecast only available for the resesarch community...

Frank

[wxman57]

I've occasionally discussed the seasonal forecasts with Phil Klotzbach. My main point has been that a prediction of a number of named storms is of little value to anyone. People will make incorrect assumptions about the level of risk based on the numbers alone. We've seen many seasons with fewer than 10 named storms but with major impacts. Andrew (1992), Betsy (1965), Alicia (1983) and Audrey (1957) come to mind. And there have been quite "active" seasons with little or no U.S. or Caribbean threat.

I've said that what we really need to attempt to forecast is where the active regions will be across the basin. Basically, what areas may have the greatest risk of an impact? Could the concentration of hurricanes in the vicinity of Florida been predicted in the spring of 2004? Until we can do that, then seasonal predictions don't really have much value. I've attempted to do this with at least some level of success in recent years (not much this year).

The bottom line is that I think seasonal predictions of numbers alone often do more harm than good. The general public will likely misinterpret what the numbers mean. They should be prepared for a possible hit regardless of the prediction. Businesses may incorrectly assume an increased or decreased level of risk based upon the numbers.

However, as a meteorologist I love to hear what my colleagues are thinking about upcoming seasonal activity. I don't think that such forecasts can pass between forecast groups without the media wanting to make a story out of it. It's unfortunate, but I don't think we (forecast groups) can just say that we're not issuing any more forecasts. I think the forecasts, and the attention they garnish, force us to find the flaws in our methods. Why was this year so quiet in all basins? (I think I know)