Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[ninel conde]

The FIM model is not nearly as bullish as yesterday either.

So looking at the last 24 hours, the "big three" (GFS/ECMWF/FIM) have all become less bullish with this wave. Only the CMC has gone the other way but we know that it is the CMC afterall

240 hours from now shows a strong tropical wave now passing through Puerto Rico and the Eastern Caribbean but no cyclone becomes of this any longer:

doesnt look like it develops the other storm the gfs shows either.

[ROCK]

A) its the FIM9 which is experimental B) its freakin 10 days out C) sorry to say the season is not over

that about covers it...

[Blown Away]

A) its the FIM9 which is experimental B) its freakin 10 days out C) sorry to say the season is not over

that about covers it...

Seems like the board has been saying give it another 10 days for a month...

[tolakram]

The FIM model is not nearly as bullish as yesterday either.

So looking at the last 24 hours, the "big three" (GFS/ECMWF/FIM) have all become less bullish with this wave. Only the CMC has gone the other way but we know that it is the CMC afterall

240 hours from now shows a strong tropical wave now passing through Puerto Rico and the Eastern Caribbean but no cyclone becomes of this any longer:

Well, I'm not sure if this is "this" wave or a combination of this and Pouch 24L, but I would say the Euro is more bullish than the previous run.



This is the 12Z vorticity, but it shows a wave with improving vorticity and moving NW instead of west, which tells me it will develop, at least minimally.

So in short, there is very little consensus at the moment. I wonder what they will do at 8PM? Maybe 0/20% and let it ride a day?

[gatorcane]

So in short, there is very little consensus at the moment. I wonder what they will do at 8PM? Maybe 0/20% and let it ride a day?

This is where 5-day forecasts get tricky especially since the real system might be the one the GFS develops right off of Africa in about the 3-4 day timeframe which eventually recurves. There is no mention of that from the NHC. BTW, is there a pouch designated for this one?

We may see them mention this one and drop the development chances some within the 5-day timeframe for pouch 25L (what is being discussed in this thread) since we have yet another run of the GFS (18Z rolling now) with no development within 5 days.

With the old way neither would have been mentioned at this point.

[Alyono]

I see the GFS making the system a tropical depression in 5 days from the plot you posted

[hurricaneCW]

I have a strong feeling this one will develop as it approaches the islands or west of 50-55W and I wouldn't be surprised if models start getting more bullish in future runs.

[Alyono]

GFS seems to stall the system in the central Caribbean as a TD/weak TS... then lifts the system very slowly north into the subtropical western Atlantic.

Could mean a massive flood for Haiti... but of course, it is after the truncation

[cycloneye]

18z GFS ends here.

[HurricaneDREW92]

18z GFS ends here.

http://oi39.tinypic.com/jq59b9.jpg

Strong TS/Minimal Cat 1 riding up the east coast. Something to keep an eye on.

[jlauderdal]

A) its the FIM9 which is experimental B) its freakin 10 days out C) sorry to say the season is not over

that about covers it...

Seems like the board has been saying give it another 10 days for a month...

i said happy hunting in august at the end of july and so far its been a big frown

[cycloneye]

No change in % but Stacey explains some details.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE TROPICAL
WAVE INTERACTS WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES INTO THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[HurricaneDREW92]

TD Friday Night/Saturday is my best guess. Forecast beyond then is the system hits 50kts south of Haiti, emerges north of Haiti at 30/35kts, heads north peaking at 65kts, clips Cape Cod at 50kts. Landfall made in East Maine at 40kts and becomes a remnant low in central Maine. This is of course a guess

[Gustywind]

Anybody notice how the NHC is tired ??! ... because of the weather forecast of tonight mentions Sunday 205 PM:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WDAT.shtml?


TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
19N22W TO A WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR 9N 25W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/
CONVECTION.

[Gustywind]

That's a big mistake and hoping that a correction should come quickly .

[TheStormExpert]

I'm curious why they haven't even bothered to highlight the area with a yellow circle yet? It really makes little sense to me.

[gatorcane]

18Z FIM-9 back on board with development. Here is how this run ends at 168 hours (high resolution FIM):

[Alyono]

FIM also shows another low latitude TD behind it

[TheStormExpert]

Keeping everything I got crossed that this is a trend.

[gatorcane]

Something else I am noticing when I look at the global models is that there is a pretty good ridge they are all now keeping over the Western Atlantic north of the Caribbean islands for at least the next 8-9 days.

Remember just a couple of days ago the GFS (as an example) was showing a large trough over the Western Atlantic around 144 hours by this weekend. That is no longer the case at looks like.

What this means is that should something get going here east of the Leewards later this week as models think might, certainly need to watch it very closely as it could track a ways west before possibly starting a recurve path.

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