Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean (Pouch 24L)

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CalmBeforeStorm
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Re: Re:

#61 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Sat Aug 24, 2013 6:56 am

ninel conde wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Latest saved SAT image. Looking better and if this keeps up, should get a mention by NHC in the next outlook or two:

http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/9796/6o66.jpg


there isnt anything there right now. the part of the wave that might have developed is over the cape verdes totally devoid of clouds.

A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N25W TO 8N25W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT
There is convection right at the spot of the 1009 low.
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 24L)

#62 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 24, 2013 7:01 am

NHC still does not mention this wave in the 5 day outlook.
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 24L)

#63 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Sat Aug 24, 2013 8:57 am

Looks pretty good and has model support, must say Im suprised at the lack of mention in the 5 day Outlook.
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 24L)

#64 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 24, 2013 9:01 am

HurricaneDREW92 wrote:Looks pretty good and has model support, must say Im suprised at the lack of mention in the 5 day Outlook.


The model support is for pouch 25L.
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 24L)

#65 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Sat Aug 24, 2013 9:06 am

cycloneye wrote:
HurricaneDREW92 wrote:Looks pretty good and has model support, must say Im suprised at the lack of mention in the 5 day Outlook.


The model support is for pouch 25L.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

The CMC develops it some.
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#66 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 24, 2013 1:12 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2013

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 20N24W TO
A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N28W MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRES AREA ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
AS INDICATED BY THE GOES-R RGB AIRMASS PRODUCT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AND IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 28W-32W.
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#67 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 25, 2013 8:33 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 25 2013

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 20N31W TO
9N33W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AS INDICATED BY THE GOES-R RGB AIRMASS PRODUCT...
AND SSMI IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 30W-35W.
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 24L)

#68 Postby wxman57 » Sun Aug 25, 2013 8:47 am

cycloneye wrote:
HurricaneDREW92 wrote:Looks pretty good and has model support, must say Im suprised at the lack of mention in the 5 day Outlook.


The model support is for pouch 25L.


That's correct, Luis. Models are developing 25L which is just reaching the coast of Africa, not 24L.
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#69 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 25, 2013 1:36 pm

2 PM TWD.


TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 21N33W TO
11N33W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE N AND S PORTIONS OF THIS WAVE
ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE WHILE DRIER AIR IS BEING
INTRODUCED TO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS MOVING BENEATH AN
UPPER LOW WHICH IS GENERATING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
THE WAVE FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 31W-35W. OTHERWISE NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.
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#70 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 26, 2013 5:14 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2013

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/37W TO THE SOUTH OF
23N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN
33W AND 37W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 34W AND 39W.
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#71 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 26, 2013 1:35 pm

SAL's story continues with this twave. By the way, the title could be edit as we're monitor a twave in Central Atlantic. Thanks to you moderators :)


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 26 2013

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N41W TO 24N38W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MAXIMUM OF TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH
REGION FROM 13N-24N BETWEEN 33W-41W AND COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB
TROUGH AXIS WITH A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 22N39W.
THE WAVE LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME DUE
TO THE PRESENSE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC.
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#72 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 26, 2013 2:03 pm

which one are you all talking about in here ?
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Re:

#73 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 26, 2013 2:07 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:which one are you all talking about in here ?


24, as identified on the CIMSS map http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
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Re: Re:

#74 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 26, 2013 2:14 pm

tolakram wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:which one are you all talking about in here ?


24, as identified on the CIMSS map http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/


ok, been mentioned in both threads... pretty sure you all have noticed the weak low that has formed. looking at the models there is support from all the models though run to run consistency is a little off. however from the looks of it the models are not dealing with the inclusion of energy from the east associated with either pouch 25L or a piece of energy between the two. looking at the 12z euro vorticity you can clearly see 3 pieces of energy... pouch 25 and area between and then 24. appears the energy from 24 and the other vorticity is what the euro and cmc are doing and what the gfs was doing the other day. watch 24 for convection to build as the sal surge passes and the vorticity merges .. right now 24 is lagging back and eventually either gets kicked wnw or gets squashed by the larger 25..



12z euro vorticity
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

cmc
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2013082612&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Aug 26, 2013 2:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Pouch 24L)

#75 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 26, 2013 2:21 pm

It could be this is the one that the euro develops and sends NW, I'm just not sure. The euro vorticity map is not available for free yet but basically it strengthens vorticity and then sends the whole mess NW and eventually recurves. No reason for it to shoot NW unless it developed, so the only question is; is this pouch 24, 25, 24+25, or 24.5? :)

edit: Woops, I see it can be had for free, thanks.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Pouch 24L)

#76 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 26, 2013 2:23 pm

tolakram wrote:It could be this is the one that the euro develops and sends NW, I'm just not sure. The euro vorticity map is not available for free yet but basically it strengthens vorticity and then sends the whole mess NW and eventually recurves. No reason for it to shoot NW unless it developed, so the only question is; is this pouch 24, 25, 24+25, or 24.5? :)


here you go euro vorticty :)
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html
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#77 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 26, 2013 2:26 pm

notice even the gfs merges the energy from the east sending 24 in to the carrib though it does not deepen it like the other models. the system behind it is either 25 or another pouch.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013082612&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation
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#78 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 26, 2013 8:36 pm

8 PM Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 24N41W TO 14N41W
MOVING NW 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION
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Re:

#79 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 27, 2013 2:00 am

Gustywind wrote:8 PM Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 24N41W TO 14N41W
MOVING NW 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION


yeah nothing to write home about. models are a bit indecisive as to how it all plays out. only time will tell..
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Re: Re:

#80 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 27, 2013 6:20 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
Gustywind wrote:8 PM Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 24N41W TO 14N41W
MOVING NW 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION


yeah nothing to write home about. models are a bit indecisive as to how it all plays out. only time will tell..

Right :) it's dry for this twave as its weather forecasts. Wait and see.
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