Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[Hammy]

Concerning the system off of the southeast, I can't say I'm totally sold yet on anything that far out given how the models have performed, and the GFS has waffled on it already several times. Persistence is the key. Probably the 192 hour mark or less, as far as genesis occurring in that time, would definitely be something of concern if it continues to show up at that point. (just removed post and had to re-post as I erroneously thought it was in the wrong thread )

[cycloneye]

ASCAT pass made at 7:21 PM EDT miss most of the circulation but is easy to see is a broad turning going on at this time.

[Hurricaneman]

Its mostly silliness at this point, but the 372hr on the 0zGFS landfalls this about where Andrea made landfall back in June maybe a little farther SE as a 1002 storm but if you use the resolution its probably a hurricane

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[PTrackerLA]

You can follow the vorticity from this system all the way to landfall in the GOM on the GFS. Pretty interesting.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013082700/gfs_z850_vort_atl.html

[bahamaswx]

Looking good tonight.

[N2FSU]

Convection has really consolidated and persisted overnight, with a very noticeable spin.
First visible shots will be telling.

[cycloneye]

Here is this mornings discussion of wave/pouch 25L from the San Juan NWS.

FOR THOSE THAT HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THE GFS
FORECAST OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY SET TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN NEXT
WEEK...THE LATEST RUN...27/00Z...SHOWED A TROPICAL WAVE...OR
PERHAPS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO BRINGS MOISTURE TO THE AREA AFT 04/00Z...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT WINDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BRING
STRONG GUSTS OF COURSE...AND SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THEN. THE ECMWF 27/00Z RUN SHOWS A SIMILAR STRENGTH SYSTEM PASSING
NORTHWEST OVER 20 NORTH 60 WEST WITH NEGLIGIBLE EFFECT TO THE
LOCAL AREA. THESE MODELS SHOULD RESOLVE THEIR DIFFERENCES WITHIN 3
TO 4 DAYS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE SOLUTIONS TO BE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO AND CURRENTLY LEAN TOWARD THE GFS.

[abajan]

I'm curious why they haven't even bothered to highlight the area with a yellow circle yet? It really makes little sense to me.

I'm curious about that too. Should it not have a yellow circle with "0%" next to it?

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/27W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 24W AND 29W. THE WAVE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE
FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO FORM EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AROUND THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013


...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/28W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 29W AND 32W. THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM WELL TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS.

[cycloneye]

I'm curious why they haven't even bothered to highlight the area with a yellow circle yet? It really makes little sense to me.

I'm curious about that too. Should it not have a yellow circle with "0%" next to it?

The most recent area of interest in the Northern Gulf had a yellow circle with 0% so I dont know either why not now.

[RL3AO]

They're not listing systems in the "OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS..." section on the graphical TWO.

[tolakram]

Here's the latest from the models for what I think is this pouch, or a combination of this and pouch 24.

0Z euro shows a more defined area of low pressure this time.

192 hours or 8 days.





Next is the 6Z GFS vorticity. It shows the main area of vorticity staying south and near the islands at 144 hours, or 6 days.




All the above from http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye, could we have the latest pic related to Pouch 25L to have a better idea of this feature? Thanks

[cycloneye]

Hey Cycloneye, could we have the latest pic related to Pouch 25L to have a better idea of this feature? Thanks

The best image I can post is this RAMSDIS one. Hopefully we have invest soon to get better images from SSD Floater. 25L is at the right of image.

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye, could we have the latest pic related to Pouch 25L to have a better idea of this feature? Thanks

The best image I can post is this RAMSDIS one. Hopefully we have invest soon to get better images from SSD Floater. 25L is at the right of image.

http://oi44.tinypic.com/j5jehf.jpg

Thanks a lot, that's a very good job ( as usual is an euphemisma ). Our members should appreciate this one i tkink.

[gatorcane]

FIM-9 (high-resolution) still liking this system. 168 hour saved image below, system approaching Leewards:

[gatorcane]

Hey Cycloneye, could we have the latest pic related to Pouch 25L to have a better idea of this feature? Thanks

Here is another look. Convection looking better this morning:

[wxman57]

Considering climo, I think that a 30% chance of an easterly wave developing in late August would be below normal. I'm thinking 40-50% chance would be about normal for this time of year.