Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[Blown Away]

Considering climo, I think that a 30% chance of an easterly wave developing in late August would be below normal. I'm thinking 40-50% chance would be about normal for this time of year.

What are your thoughts on this wave developing and track beyond 50W??

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye, could we have the latest pic related to Pouch 25L to have a better idea of this feature? Thanks

Here is another look. Convection looking better this morning:

Thanks Gatorcane, that's a very nice one too. We have a better idea of Pouch 25L. Agree that convection is in better shape, if this trend continues during the next 24h, do you think that we could have an Invest from that before Friday? What are your thoughts?

[Blown Away]

Boy that is a good looking wave and moving across the MDR in hurricane season prime time...Normally I would think homerun hurricane in the making, but I'm gun shy when these global models only hint slight development...The next few rounds of model runs should give us a good sense of the conditions beyond 60W...

[Sanibel]

Unimpressive surface feature associated with that wave.

[Blown Away]

JB onboard...

[ROCK]

this looks very impressive at the surface...nice looking wave for August.

[Hurricaneman]

this looks very impressive at the surface...nice looking wave for August.

with the atmospheric conditions after 5 days and the current look of the wave this could become a major player in the Caribbean and those along the SE coast and maybe even the Gulf need to watch this


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS has this becoming a depression by day 6 so the 30% by day 5 is IMO spot on

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[blp]

12z GFS continues to show dissipation now after the 114hr. It is the outlier at this point as the Euro, NAVGEM, CMC, and FIM all have this developing to some degree. I don't know what the GFS is seeing that the others are not.

114hr
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013082712/gfsfull_pres_pcpn_atl_37.png
117hr
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013082712/gfsfull_pres_pcpn_atl_38.png

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-avn.html
~~~~~~
This system is producing more and more deep, concentrated convection. I don't see any reason for this not to develop. It's in a moist environment, the water temperatures are getting warmer as it moves east, wind shear is low and should remain low, and, after all, it is late August.

[abajan]

Looking impressive indeed. I think there's a good chance that the 48 Hour and 5 Day percentages will be higher in the next TWO.

[hurricaneCW]

12z GFS continues to show dissipation now after the 114hr. It is the outlier at this point as the Euro, NAVGEM, CMC, and FIM all have this developing to some degree. I don't know what the GFS is seeing that the others are not.

114hr
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013082712/gfsfull_pres_pcpn_atl_37.png
117hr
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013082712/gfsfull_pres_pcpn_atl_38.png

It definitely doesn't dissipate on the 12z gfs, probably a TD or even a TS by the islands and near PR and I would lean toward a stronger system as models often underestimate the system's true strength. I believe in 2007 the gfs showed a 1008 low for either Dean or Felix when they were in actuality Category 4/5 hurricanes.

[Alyono]

12z GFS continues to show dissipation now after the 114hr. It is the outlier at this point as the Euro, NAVGEM, CMC, and FIM all have this developing to some degree. I don't know what the GFS is seeing that the others are not.

114hr
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013082712/gfsfull_pres_pcpn_atl_37.png
117hr
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013082712/gfsfull_pres_pcpn_atl_38.png

GFS does NOT dissipate it. It develops it in the eastern Caribbean

[hurricaneCW]

12z GFS continues to show dissipation now after the 114hr. It is the outlier at this point as the Euro, NAVGEM, CMC, and FIM all have this developing to some degree. I don't know what the GFS is seeing that the others are not.

114hr
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013082712/gfsfull_pres_pcpn_atl_37.png
117hr
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013082712/gfsfull_pres_pcpn_atl_38.png

It definitely doesn't dissipate on the 12z gfs, probably a TD or even a TS by the islands and near PR and I would lean toward a stronger system as models often underestimate the system's true strength. I believe in 2007 the gfs showed a 1008 low for either Dean or Felix when they were in actuality Category 4/5 hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

Why this is not a invest yet?

[blp]

Brings it back over the Bahamas in 288hr.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013082712/gfsfull_pres_pcpn_atl_71.png

[Alyono]

Why this is not a invest yet?

does it really matter if there is a meaningless SHIPS run made on the system?

[tolakram]

Why this is not a invest yet?

Not sure which blob would be the invest, in my opinion. Vorticity models still showing some confusion ahead prior to development, but at least the 6Z GFS seems to take 95 and keep it intact while picking up some vorticity from the area in front of it.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013082706&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

There's an outside chance now of two named systems before the end of August ... way outside, but still.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS, 192 hours and 348, showing a storm moving NE away from the Bahamas.





Graphics here: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013082712/

[Blown Away]

That was a sharp recurve and the trough seems in place over the EC...