Upper Low Over FL Straits: 0% / 0%

[hurrtracker79]

Quite a bit of mid-level spin and very deep thunderstorms building. Any chance this can become tropical in a hurry?

[Sanibel]

It's in the right place if it does.

[northjaxpro]

This is on the tail end of that frontal bounday which passed through the peninsula during Sunday and yesterday. It is an interesting feature to watch as potential "homebrew"systems like these can develop on the tail end of fronts. Plus, it is sitting over warm waters in the Florida Straits. Convection is building again this morning as there does seem to be a mid-level rotation in that region.

I don't anticpate any development, nor is there any model support for this. However,if convection can maintain and vorticity increase with time, we may have something to watch closely in the short term.

[tolakram]

Visible south of Florida this morning. Upper level low at the moment.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[tropicwatch]

Rotation is evident in radar loops also, caught my eye this morning.

[Dave C]

I just looked at a radar loop from Miami and that is quite interesting to say the least!!!! What do you guys think? Panamatropicwatch beat me by 1 minute LOL

[Bocadude85]

The radar presentation almost looks like a hurricane approaching the keys.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[ROCK]

The radar presentation almost looks like a hurricane approaching the keys.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

man that ULL is wound up tight to have an eye....never seen anything close to this before....

what are the pressures out there?

[northjaxpro]

Pressures are still high in the Florida Keys, ranging in the 1015-1017 mb range checking obs in Marathon and Key West. However, I am curious to see buoys or ship reports that may be closer in that convective mass.

Development will be slow if it happens at all, which I am not anticipating for the near term. Just a curious feature to monitor close to home for now.

[ROCK]

yeah just checked they are high....however you have ENE winds and ESE winds on either side of the mass...no obs directly west of the convection to check for a west wind....

[ROCK]

it sure is close to the surface....man ....look at the vort at different levels...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[northjaxpro]

Yeah Rock I tend to agree with you. The radar imagery is very telling to me. It seems to me that there is a mid-level circulation within that convective mass. I am still trying to find any ship reports in that area. But I have to admit that this system just may be trying to burrow to the surface. These systems can blow up quickly, especially being over some of the warmest water in the basin currently. I still am not anticipating development, but this feature is getting more interesting with time I have to say .

[ROCK]

:uarrow: Yeah Rock I tend to agree with you. The radar imagery is very telling to me. It seems to me that there is a mid-level circulation within that convective mass. I am still trying to find any ship reports in that area. But I have to admit that this system just may be trying to burrow to the surface. These systems can blow up quickly, especially being over some of the warmest water in the basin currently. I still am not anticipating development, but this feature is getting more interesting with time I have to say .

and models cant predict ULL's drilling into the sureface either....very interesting...the MJO in action maybe?

[wxman57]

Pressures continue to rise in the area, up to 1018mb now.

[ROCK]

Pressures continue to rise in the area, up to 1018mb now.

yes we know.... but it sure looked good on radar for a time....

no sure I can buy that reading off that station...MLRF1...doesnt look right. I think the winds are normal and the water temp is almost 90F...

[ROCK]

wind shear is very light over this.....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[TheStormExpert]

Been raining and hearing thunder in NE Palm Beach County all morning due to this UL Low.

[cycloneye]

10% / 10%

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE HIGH AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WHILE IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[northjaxpro]

Well, so I see NHC has marked it as 10 percent and a drift northward. That is reasonable for now. Will watch closely to see if any pressure falls will occur. The system will not be in any hurry to move for now as well.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Sort of a surprise this blossomed.. Weather was expected to be dry today with low cloud cover.