Surface Trough with weak low 1011 mb

[ROCK]

I think so....its been a naked swirl for quite some time....and dove SW into the ITCZ where it has sustained albeit small. It is ahead of the SAL to some degree also. once it gets in the E carib this could be a dark horse. Model might start to pick up on it also by tomorrow if this keeps up...

additionally there is an anticyclone just off to the east of it....shear is light all the way into the carib....good vort and low level convergence...


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2013

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N50W
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 51W AND 54W.

[northtxboy]

Aint lookin to bad this morning

[northjaxpro]

Convection really expanded overnight and indeed it looks good right now. However, I can't forget the fact that it is approaching the Eastern Caribbean and that area of the basin is known to not be too favorable for tropical cyclones to develop at times. We shall see how this system fares. It looks to bring some rain and potential squally weather at the very least to portions of the Isles in a couple of days.

[floridasun78]

it look like going hit south america if dont go nw soon

[tailgater]

Barbados radar, looks very weak ATM.
http://www.barbadosweather.org/RadarPro ... player.php

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N52W
DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN
50W AND 55W.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10.5N52W
DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN
50W AND 55W.

[Gustywind]

Looks like islanders from Barbados and Ste Lucia are surprised by this feature.
Many reports emphasized on the very strong showers and tstorms abatting in these two islands. Moreover, floodings have been reported in Barbados. These sources are from the weathersite of http://stormcarib.com/ .

Barbados reports

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/barbados.shtml


- Barbados
From: "PEQUENEZA,J" <sydmouth at caribsurf.com>
Date: Tue, 27 Aug 2013 08:48:11 -0400

It has never stopped raining since I posted in the early hours of the morning. Thunder and lightening seems to have moved on. 2 inches had fallen by 6am this morning at the airport. Has to be flooding in parts of the island by now.

- Update
From: "PEQUENEZA,J" <sydmouth at caribsurf.com>
Date: Tue, 27 Aug 2013 03:19:26 -0400

It is raining very heavily and the thunder and lightening is all around. Looking at the satellite it is going to be with us for most of the night.


Ste Lucia report

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stlucia.shtml

- What is this?
From: nada sonia <nadasonia825 at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 27 Aug 2013 09:45:24 -0400

I got a phone call after 6 am this morning and only one sentence registered "the river is high". I sprang into action and ventured up the road (in the rain) to see the river about 2 ft from the top of the banks. I just shook my head in utter disbelief. NOT AGAIN!!!!!!


So now as I type this, my stuff is packed in garbage bags on top the table, beds, counters, etc. Why? (In my layman's opinion after living in this area almost my entire life) I live in a flood zone area in Soufriere which was made worse when engineers rebuilt a road with an incline that previously had a gentle slope down to the sea. Whenever the river burst its banks before the water naturally drained into the sea. That was then. Now my common sense tells me if the river ever bursts its banks again, the water now has to go up and over this incline but will first back up and pool in front of my home.

I saw one fb post that the river was going over the bridge in Richfond, Dennery.

So now we are praying that this weather stays away from us by divine intervention.

Stay safe (I cannot say dry because I'm soaked).

Nadia

[abajan]

But is the weather we're getting part of that system? 52W is pretty far to the east.

[Gustywind]

But is the weather we're getting part of that system? 52W is pretty far to the east.

Yeah, you're right, the TWD of 805 AM mentions that:

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 59W AND 61W...COVERING BARBADOS AND APPROACHING THE
ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA

I think that these showers are related to that .

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2013

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N54W
DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN
52W AND 57W.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2013


A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 53W/54W FROM 9N TO 12N DRIFTING
WESTWARD. THE TROUGH IS THE REMNANT OF THE FORMER SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
9N TO 12N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W.