Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[ronjon]

:uarrow: That was a sharp recurve and the trough seems in place over the EC...

Its more than a week away!

[cycloneye]

0% / 30%

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AROUND THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[OuterBanker]

This is how it ends. Wow!!!

Surf's Up!

One of the first posts on this thread. Sure would solve our lack of surf that we have had all summer.

Of course everyone knows that a 384 is for entertainment purposes only. And it has changed every run since.

Once this becomes an invest this thread will end and be forgotten, but I do have one question.

Has a 384 Ever verified?

[Hurricane_Luis]

This is how it ends. Wow!!!
http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/2366/5unr.jpg

Oh dear, Sandy last year Flash-backs

[Gustywind]

2 PM Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N31W TO
19N29W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. AS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...THE SOUTHERN VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS BECAME
THE DOMINATE FEATURE AND IS CURRENTLY A WEAK AND BROAD CYCLONIC
MONSOONAL GYRE WITH INFLUENCE FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 23W-38W. AS
THE LOW-LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD AS A
WHOLE...UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE WAVE
AXIS WILL SLOWLY FRACTURE ENERGY AWAY FROM THE WAVE TO THE NORTH
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
13N31W TO 08N37W.

[Hammy]

the particular GFS run linked appears to be a few days old.

[Sanibel]

Surface looking better.

[ninel conde]

This is how it ends. Wow!!!

Surf's Up!

One of the first posts on this thread. Sure would solve our lack of surf that we have had all summer.

Of course everyone knows that a 384 is for entertainment purposes only. And it has changed every run since.

Once this becomes an invest this thread will end and be forgotten, but I do have one question.

Has a 384 Ever verified?

thats 2 days old.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

The European model keeps recurving the system before reaching the islands
12Z run
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... ml#picture

[AJC3]

Why this is not a invest yet?

does it really matter if there is a meaningless SHIPS run made on the system?

To some, perhaps not, but it is nice to be able to get invest-centered M/I imagery from POES passes on the NRL TC web site.

[JGrin87]

have no idea why this wouldn't be an invest... looks really good on satellite.

[Gustywind]

Watching Pouch 25L.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... 0659509001

[cycloneye]

have no idea why this wouldn't be an invest... looks really good on satellite.

They may be waiting for persistence of the convection and low pressure to then tag it.

[Gustywind]

have no idea why this wouldn't be an invest... looks really good on satellite.

They may be waiting for persistence of the convection and low pressure to then tag it.

You're maybe right on that Cyloneye. By the way, will the NHC circle it tonight or tommorow? Time will tell...

[hurricanes1234]

Is this expected to become a hurricane? If so, what category?

[AJC3]

Is this expected to become a hurricane? If so, what category?

Way (x 10E10) too early to speculate.

[gatorcane]

Looping the Atlantic-wide view VIS loop this afternoon shows some broad cyclonic turning over the pouch (bottom-right corner of this image):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Certainly has "the look" it is going to make a run at development.

Dry air of the past several weeks looks like it is losing it's grip out there too, which should aid in gradual development of this pouch.

[Riptide]

Mindblowingly awesome compared to what we have seen so far, and yet the NHC has invested little "poof" systems all the time.

[gatorcane]

The European model keeps recurving the system before reaching the islands
12Z run
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... ml#picture

That may be but it's not recurving it well east and we are talking medium to long-range still.

Plus after it passes a little north of the islands the ECMWF is gradually bending the system back WNW and the trough is pulling out of the Western Atlantic by 240 hours.

Here is the 12Z ECMWF loop showing the bend back to the WNW just north of the islands:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[blp]

Interesting that the 12z Euro now really develops the system further east over the CV islands just as the GFS and then has this pouch weaker at the end. On the 00z run the Euro barely picked up on the one further east.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html#picture