Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[blp]

The European model keeps recurving the system before reaching the islands
12Z run
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... ml#picture

That may be but it's not recurving it well east and we are talking medium to long-range still.

Plus after it passes a little north of the islands I see it gradually bending back WNW and the trough is pulling out of the Western Atlantic by 240 hours.

A long way to go with this one folks with where it ends up, assuming it develops.

Here is the 12Z ECMWF loop showing the bend back to the WNW just north of the islands:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

Yes, there appears to be a narrow ridge that will build back in. If the system stays weak it may get trapped and allow for strengthening in the Bahamas. I posted this on the global model thread. The August anomaly shows a small ridge that has persisted off the southeast coast.

[hurricanes1234]

How favourable are conditions in its forecasted path?

[blp]

Well the FIM7 has it very near the Euro position.

[Fego]

12z ECM moves pouch 25L closer to the NE Caribbean than yesterday 12z run. Still at a safety distance, thoug.

Sent from my SGH-M919 using Tapatalk 2

[gatorcane]

Well the FIM7 has it very near the Euro position.

Yeah saw that. The FIM later goes on to send it north but that is 240+ hours from now and alot can change with the synoptics. Looks how crazy the FIM is getting with this system suggesting there might be very favorable conditions in Western Atlantic at that time. Fun times ahead on this one I feel!

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Seems to me that this wave has model support pretty much across the board with the GFS being the weakest.

[blp]

Even the normally conservative Ukmet has jumped in.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Even the normally conservative Ukmet has jumped in.

http://img829.imageshack.us/img829/1836/5oa.gif

Should be invested quite soon. With model support, broad circulation and convection.

[AtlanticWind]

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 29m
Winds are out of the NW at 40W, 10N. Strongest wave of the year in central Atlantic looks primed to develop slowly.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

All, please remember to include the disclaimer when linking to an amateur posters forecast.

In addition, if you can add the URL tags (see the button above the posting box) it will cause links to open a new window or tab.

Thanks.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Unofficial Forecast for 25L:

Here is the likely scenario for now thru late this week



And this weekend we may have a potential TC east of the islands. The orange path is what I'm considering the most likely scenario as of today and the two yellow paths are less likely but possible scenarios. Strength-wise I have little to say but my best guess at the moment is this peaks anywhere from 50kts-70kts.



Disclaimer below

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[floridasun78]

i expect circle by 8pm or 2am leewards may need watch tropical wave soon if get closer to them

[floridasun78]

Unofficial Forecast for 25L:

Here is the likely scenario for now thru late this week



And this weekend we may have a potential TC east of the islands. The orange path is what I'm considering the most likely scenario as of today and the two yellow paths are less likely but possible scenarios. Strength-wise I have little to say but my best guess at the moment is this peaks anywhere from 50kts-70kts.



Disclaimer below

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

you see as fish??

[HurricaneDREW92]

Unofficial Forecast for 25L:

Here is the likely scenario for now thru late this week

http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/7167/5o1v.png

And this weekend we may have a potential TC east of the islands. The orange path is what I'm considering the most likely scenario as of today and the two yellow paths are less likely but possible scenarios. Strength-wise I have little to say but my best guess at the moment is this peaks anywhere from 50kts-70kts.

http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/4874/1678.png

Disclaimer below

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

you see as fish??

Yes, but very close to the US East Coast. We will have to keep an eye on it

EDIT: Not a fish for Canada

[floridasun78]

Unofficial Forecast for 25L:

Here is the likely scenario for now thru late this week

http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/7167/5o1v.png

And this weekend we may have a potential TC east of the islands. The orange path is what I'm considering the most likely scenario as of today and the two yellow paths are less likely but possible scenarios. Strength-wise I have little to say but my best guess at the moment is this peaks anywhere from 50kts-70kts.

http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/4874/1678.png

Disclaimer below

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

you see as fish??

Yes, but very close to the US East Coast. We will have to keep an eye on it

well east my state florida how you know going turn their? high weaking on west side?

[HurricaneDREW92]

well east my state florida how you know going turn their? high weakening on west side?

Strengthening storm feels the weakening to its north and recurves sharply. Obviously it might be weaker than I anticipate it to be, ridging might be stronger etc which is why I included the yellow paths.

[cycloneye]

Convection has persisted even in the DMIN period.

[Alyono]

latest GFS keeps it as a broad low through 138 hours. Seems reasonable given the environment. May not be favorable until it enters the eastern Caribbean

[Alyono]

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 29m
Winds are out of the NW at 40W, 10N. Strongest wave of the year in central Atlantic looks primed to develop slowly.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

What would he call Chantal, Dorian, and Erin? They developed east of where this thing is.

He should not make outlandish statements and stick to science

[Portastorm]

I would encourage folks here to follow our pro mets closely, carefully reading their posts and enjoy getting the free education.

Follow others at your own risk.

That blue tag means something around here. Just sayin'.