Global model runs discussion

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6161 Postby weatherwindow » Tue Aug 27, 2013 4:00 am

chaser1 wrote:Okay, just curious here.......what was the name of that "new" model (well, new to many of us here anyway) that had been referenced earlier in the season - I think from Brazil; Anyone happen to know what "it's" crystall ball was indicating for its Atlantic basin mid-term forecast (I seem to remember that it might have been even more geared towards a long term forecast rather than short term)??

Good morning, Chaser
The good news is the model name is BRAMS 4.2(Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modelling System)..the bad news is that I cant access it, believe it is password protected....hope that is of some help...Grtz from KW, Rich
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6162 Postby USTropics » Tue Aug 27, 2013 4:12 am

weatherwindow wrote:
chaser1 wrote:Okay, just curious here.......what was the name of that "new" model (well, new to many of us here anyway) that had been referenced earlier in the season - I think from Brazil; Anyone happen to know what "it's" crystall ball was indicating for its Atlantic basin mid-term forecast (I seem to remember that it might have been even more geared towards a long term forecast rather than short term)??

Good morning, Chaser
The good news is the model name is BRAMS 4.2(Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modelling System)..the bad news is that I cant access it, believe it is password protected....hope that is of some help...Grtz from KW, Rich


You can access the input data at their ftp location or here: http://brams.cptec.inpe.br/input_data.shtml

It's on a Gaussian grid, so you need to use a program like Unidata offers to open them.
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ninel conde

#6163 Postby ninel conde » Tue Aug 27, 2013 6:26 am

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=180hr

through 180 GFS shows weaker recurving low. the more important thing it shows is a strong east coast trof which will limit development in the GOM and west carib.

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... /slp48.png

384 shows another recurving low and an area of lower pressure near florida. once again there is a strong east coast trof and a rather deep winterlike low over eastern canada. assuming this is close to right, and im sure it will change alot in coming days, then such a strong trof will string out anything trying to develop in the gom or sw atlantic.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... hour=240hr

on a somewhat more positive note the euro has a weak low south of bermuda and it would seem it may be blocked from recurving.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=168hr

cmc would seem to back up the euro as it has a storm in a position at 168 that could end up where the euro has it at 240. 06 GFS is a more recent run though so we need to see where this is at 12Z
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6164 Postby weatherwindow » Tue Aug 27, 2013 9:24 am

Good morning, all...the discussion of the CV cyclones and their historical tracks led me to go back to NHC archives and Unisys(1851 to present) and pull out the significant systems forming at or east of 35degW(which is 1000km western limit for CV designation). Significant here is defined to be a US, Canadian or Caribbean landfall of a Cat 1 or stronger hurricane. The list is longer than you may think. Obviously, few of these systems reached hurricane strength east of 35degW. I certainly agree with UST that a stronger system is likely to recurve east of the Caribbean.

1866-Nassau, Bahamas cat 4 Oct 2
1871-Fort Pierce, Fl cat1 Aug 25
1893-New York, NY cat 1 Aug 26
1893 Savannah, GA cat 3 Aug 28
1893 HiltonHead, SC cat 3 Oct 13
1899 San Ciricao Puerto Rico cat 4 Aug 8, Nassau cat 3 Aug 13, Outer Banks NC cat 3 Aug 19
1906 Antigua, Anguilla, St Martin cat 2 Sept 2
1915 Galveston, TX cat 4 Aug 17
1928 San FelipeII Puerto Rico cat 5 Sept 13, Nassau, Bahamas cat 4 Sept 16, Palm Beach, Fl cat 4 Sept 17
1933 Outer Banks, NC cat 2 Aug 23, Norfolk, VA cat 1 Aug 23
1938 Long Island, NY cat 3 Sept 21, New Haven, CT cat 3 Sept 21
1947 Great Abaco, Bahamas cat 4 Sept 17, Fort Lauderdale, Fl cat 4 Sept 17, New Orleans, LA cat1 Sept 19
1952 Able Charleston, SC cat 2 Aug 31
1953 Carol Nova Scotia, CA cat 1 Sept 8
1955 Connie Outer Banks, NC cat 1/2 Aug 12
1960 Donna Antigua cat 4 Sept 5, Turks and Caicos cat 3 Sept 6, Marathon, Fl cat 4 Sept 10, Outer Banks cat 2 Sept 13, Long Island, NY cat2 Sept 13
1961 Esther Cape Cod, MA cat 3 Sept 26
1963 Flora Jacmel, HA cat 4 Oct 4, Guantanamo, CU cat 3 Oct 5, Great Inauga, BA cat 2 Oct 9
1964 Dora Jacksonville, Fl cat 3 Sept 13
1966 Inez Guadeloupe cat 3 Sept 27, Jacmel HA cat 3 Sept 30, Santiago CU cat 3 Sept 30, Nassau, BA cat 1 Oct 4, Key Largo, Fl cat 1 Oct 5, Tampico, MX cat 3 Oct 10
1967 Beulah Martinique TS Sept 7, Cancun, MX cat 2, Brownsville cat 5 Sept 20
1979 Frederic Antigua TS Sept 3, several TS/TD landfalls, Pascagoula MS/Dauphin Island, AL cat 4 Sept 13
1980 Allen St Lucia cat 3 Aug 4, Jamaica cat 3 Aug 6, Brownsville, TX cat 3 Aug 10
1985 Gloria Outer Banks, NC cat 2 Sept 27 Long Island,NY cat 2 Sept 27
1989 Hugo Guadeloupe cat 4 Sept 17, Puerto Rico cat 4 Sept 18, Charleston, SC cat 4 Sept 22
1992 Andrew Eleuthera, BA cat 5 Aug 24, Elliot Key, Fl cat 5 Aug 24, Homestead, Fl cat 5 Aug 24, Morgan City, LA cat 4 Aug 26
1995 Luis Antigua cat 4 Sept 5
1996 Bertha Wilmington, NC cat 2 July 12
1996 Fran Wilmington, NC cat 2 Sept 5
1998 Georges Nevis cat 3 Sept 21, St Croix cat 2 Sept 21, Puerto Rico cat 3 Sept 22, Punta Cana, DR cat 3 Sept 22, Port au Prince, HA cat 1 Sept 23, Guantanamo, CU cat 1 Sept 24, Key West, Fl cat 2 Sept 25, Pascagoula, MS cat 2 Sept 29
2003 Fabian Bermuda cat 3 Sept 5
2003 Isabel Outer Banks, NC cat 2
2004 Frances Great Abaco cat 2 Sept 3, Hutchinson Island, Fl cat 2 Sept 5, Panacea, Fl TS Sept 7
2004 Ivan Grenada cat 3, Cabo Corrientes, CU cat 5 Sept 13, Gulf Shores, AL cat 3 Sept 16
2007 Dean Martinique cat 2 Aug 17, Majahual, MX cat 5 Aug 21, Tecolutla, MX cat 2 Aug 22
2008 Ike Turks and Caicos cat 4 Sept 7, Great Inagua cat 3 Sept 7, Banes, CU cat 4 Sept 8, Punta La Capitana, CU cat 1 Sept 9, Galveston, TX cat 2 Sept 13
2010 Earl Nova Scotia cat 1 Sept 4

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/

Mods if you want to move this feel free 8-)
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6165 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 27, 2013 11:23 am

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6166 Postby SoupBone » Tue Aug 27, 2013 12:07 pm

I know it isn't part of the models discussion, but thanks USTropics for the recurve explanation. I enjoyed the reading. And Hammy, what's the predicted timeframe on that wave emerging in the latest GFS?
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6167 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 27, 2013 12:33 pm

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

12Z NAVGEM shows 4 areas of interest....
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6168 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 27, 2013 12:36 pm

SoupBone wrote:And Hammy, what's the predicted timeframe on that wave emerging in the latest GFS?


sometime Thursday by the looks of it.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6169 Postby blp » Tue Aug 27, 2013 12:58 pm

This is the pattern so far this month with regards to the 500MB anomaly. Interesting that there has been some higher than normal ridging off the southeast US coast. If anything were to get past 70W it could be trouble for the US. Of course, this will change in September.

Image
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ninel conde

#6170 Postby ninel conde » Tue Aug 27, 2013 2:23 pm

euro seems to have dropped the weak low. not seeing much through 240
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Re:

#6171 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 27, 2013 2:35 pm

ninel conde wrote:euro seems to have dropped the weak low. not seeing much through 240


What source are you using?

12Z euro still shows compact vorticity in about the same place, curving NE of the islands (Pouch 25) and another storm moving NW from Cape Verde. You can see it, for free, here: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

The biggest clue the Euro sees development is not pressure circles but the fact it's shooting the vorticity NW instead of keeping it moving with the lower level flow, which would be west.

Once again there is a well defined vorticity blob on the gulf, this time at 72 hours.
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Re: Re:

#6172 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 27, 2013 3:06 pm

tolakram wrote:12Z euro still shows compact vorticity in about the same place, curving NE of the islands (Pouch 25) and another storm moving NW from Cape Verde. You can see it, for free, here: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

The biggest clue the Euro sees development is not pressure circles but the fact it's shooting the vorticity NW instead of keeping it moving with the lower level flow, which would be west.

Once again there is a well defined vorticity blob on the gulf, this time at 72 hours.


So if this all plays out, is it looking likely for at least three storms in the next ten days?
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Re: Re:

#6173 Postby ninel conde » Tue Aug 27, 2013 3:28 pm

tolakram wrote:
ninel conde wrote:euro seems to have dropped the weak low. not seeing much through 240


What source are you using?

12Z euro still shows compact vorticity in about the same place, curving NE of the islands (Pouch 25) and another storm moving NW from Cape Verde. You can see it, for free, here: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

The biggest clue the Euro sees development is not pressure circles but the fact it's shooting the vorticity NW instead of keeping it moving with the lower level flow, which would be west.

Once again there is a well defined vorticity blob on the gulf, this time at 72 hours.


im not seeing any well developed storms

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... hour=240hr

thats 240 and it shows nothing. 12 hours ago it did show an actual weak low south of bermuda but it has since dropped it. its perplexing because the euro emsembles are what is showing such a positive MJO, yet the OP shows no storms that i can see on the map provided. it does show a developing storm in the east pac so it can indeed show actual surface lows and it had one south of bermuda at 0Z.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6174 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 27, 2013 3:42 pm

the EURO is showing significant development in the medium and long range thats a good sign that things are heating up out there.
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Re: Re:

#6175 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Tue Aug 27, 2013 3:48 pm

ninel conde wrote:
tolakram wrote:
ninel conde wrote:euro seems to have dropped the weak low. not seeing much through 240


What source are you using?

12Z euro still shows compact vorticity in about the same place, curving NE of the islands (Pouch 25) and another storm moving NW from Cape Verde. You can see it, for free, here: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

The biggest clue the Euro sees development is not pressure circles but the fact it's shooting the vorticity NW instead of keeping it moving with the lower level flow, which would be west.

Once again there is a well defined vorticity blob on the gulf, this time at 72 hours.


im not seeing any well developed storms

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... hour=240hr

thats 240 and it shows nothing. 12 hours ago it did show an actual weak low south of bermuda but it has since dropped it. its perplexing because the euro emsembles are what is showing such a positive MJO, yet the OP shows no storms that i can see on the map provided. it does show a developing storm in the east pac so it can indeed show actual surface lows and it had one south of bermuda at 0Z.



It still shows the CV system beginning in 3 days.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html
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Re: Re:

#6176 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 27, 2013 4:02 pm

ninel conde wrote:im not seeing any well developed storms

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... hour=240hr

thats 240 and it shows nothing. 12 hours ago it did show an actual weak low south of bermuda but it has since dropped it. its perplexing because the euro emsembles are what is showing such a positive MJO, yet the OP shows no storms that i can see on the map provided. it does show a developing storm in the east pac so it can indeed show actual surface lows and it had one south of bermuda at 0Z.


the model resolution on the FSU site is extremely poor, and not seeing anything at 240 hours also not set in stone as an indication of what will happen, as the forecast accuracy drops the further out you go.

All evidence, increasingly so, is that the tropics will likely become active very soon, probably before the week is out even.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6177 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 27, 2013 4:34 pm

Some saved maps of the 12Z run. I'm interested in reviewing these in a few days to see what actually happens.

72 hour vorticity, with blob in the western Gulf and coming off the African coast.

Image

96 hours from now showing a low pressure area off the African coast.

Image

192 hours showing vorticity NE of the Islands, which may be Pouch 25.

Image

All images from: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6178 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 27, 2013 4:37 pm

Oh, and check out the current instability. Some kind of seasonal record if it manages to cross over to above normal! :D

Image
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6179 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Aug 27, 2013 5:03 pm

Stepping on a small soapbox but here goes:

Sign of the times that what the 12z Euro depicts is considered "significant development." Not picking on anyone in particular here but (aside from Typhoon Utor apparently) I don't recall the Euro consistently showing not even a closed isobar and the reality being a well developed hurricane. What these anemic model runs are telling me (GFS & Euro) is that the environment will be marginally favorable for the Pouch 25 to develop. Not saying that will not change but I just can't wrap my brain around thinking we have significant development on the way but the only thing you see in the models is an area of enhanced vorticity. It's 2013, not the 1990s. If a major hurricane were to be out in the basin a week from now shouldn't the models be showing this and not a 1008mb low?

Now stepping away from the models, looking at Pouch 25, I don't see why this system shouldn't "go" being the time of year it is. GFS and Euro both say "meh." Outright bizarre year and I can't remember seeing anything like this season in the years I've been following storms.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6180 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Tue Aug 27, 2013 5:05 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Stepping on a small soapbox but here goes:
Sign of the times that what the 12z Euro depicts is considered "significant development." Not picking on anyone in particular here but (aside from Typhoon Utor apparently) I don't recall the Euro consistently showing not even a closed isobar and the reality being a well developed hurricane. What these anemic model runs are telling me (GFS & Euro) are that the environment will be marginally favorable for the Pouch 25 to develop. Not saying that will not change but I just can't wrap my brain around thinking we have significant development on the way but the only thing you see in the models is an area of enhanced vorticity. It's 2013, not the 1990s. If a major hurricane were to be out in the basin a week from now shouldn't the models be showing this and not a 1008mb low?

Now stepping away from the models, looking at Pouch 25, I don't see why this system shouldn't "go" being the time of year it is. GFS and Euro both say "meh." Outright bizarre year and I can't remember seeing anything like this season in the years I've been following storms.


Very bizarre year. I've been watching every single storm in the atlantic since '05-'06 and off and on throughout '03 and '04. Of course, I been watching at the time things blew up :lol:
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