Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[Alyono]

this time, it looks to be shredded over Hispañiola

[Aric Dunn]

Like a ocean wave breaking

['CaneFreak]

Potential pattern over the next 8-14 days as suggested by CPC. Looks like a recurve pattern. HOWEVER, PLEASE NOTE: recurve does NOT mean NO threat to the US east coast.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

[NDG]

Not sure if it has been mentioned yet, but instability is finally rising close to average at the Tropical Atlantic region.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

Would be surprised if the NHC does not give at least 10 percent chance in the 48 hours on the 8pm update

[HurricaneDREW92]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

Would be surprised if the NHC does not give at least 10 percent chance in the 48 hours on the 8pm update

Must say, its looking mighty fine. I dont see why not, what with all the model support and convection mantaining through DMIN.

[cycloneye]

No change in the %.

A TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AROUND THE END OF THE
WEEK OR WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE... NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Alyono]

one issue may be that the greatest vorticity may be well north of the convection. This may be why the models are only indicating slow and limited development with the system.

It's a disorganized mess right now and even if it becomes a TC, chances are it will remain a disorganized mess

[AtlanticWind]

No change in the %.

A TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AROUND THE END OF THE
WEEK OR WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE... NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

Seems odd that he upper low over florida has a better chance of devolpment in the next 48 hours than this strong wave.

[SFLcane]

one issue may be that the greatest vorticity may be well north of the convection. This may be why the models are only indicating slow and limited development with the system.

It's a disorganized mess right now and even if it becomes a TC, chances are it will remain a disorganized mess

Further west it will go

[TheStormExpert]

Don't understand why they can't at least put a yellow circle up over it? Kind of frustrates me when I look at the NHC's TWO Graphic and don't see a circle for this strong TW but see a circle for an unlikely to develop ULL over the FL straits. Proximity to land is my only guess on this situation.

[ninel conde]

one issue may be that the greatest vorticity may be well north of the convection. This may be why the models are only indicating slow and limited development with the system.

It's a disorganized mess right now and even if it becomes a TC, chances are it will remain a disorganized mess

i pointed that out a few days ago when i observed that the part of the wave that might develop was devoid of clouds at the time. the part of the wave thats going to develop, if it does, is up at 16.5-17n.

[TheStormExpert]

Not sure if it has been mentioned yet, but instability is finally rising close to average at the Tropical Atlantic region.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... t_THDV.gif

A lot of the greatest instability seems to be in the area where Pouch 25L currently is. Huge mass of convection surrounding that area.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

latest GFS keeps it as a broad low through 138 hours. Seems reasonable given the environment. May not be favorable until it enters the eastern Caribbean

Im really curious what makes the enviprnment unfavorable? IMIm

[CalmBeforeStorm]

latest GFS keeps it as a broad low through 138 hours. Seems reasonable given the environment. May not be favorable until it enters the eastern Caribbean

Im really curious what makes the enviprnment unfavorable? IMIm

[Alyono]

Don't understand why they can't at least put a yellow circle up over it? Kind of frustrates me when I look at the NHC's TWO Graphic and don't see a circle for this strong TW but see a circle for an unlikely to develop ULL over the FL straits. Proximity to land is my only guess on this situation.

because it really isn't that strong of a wave at the present time

[Alyono]

latest GFS keeps it as a broad low through 138 hours. Seems reasonable given the environment. May not be favorable until it enters the eastern Caribbean

Im really curious what makes the enviprnment unfavorable? IMIm

my guess is unfavorable low level winds

the vorticity seems to not become concentrated. Could mean a lack of low level convergence

[thetruesms]

Don't understand why they can't at least put a yellow circle up over it? Kind of frustrates me when I look at the NHC's TWO Graphic and don't see a circle for this strong TW but see a circle for an unlikely to develop ULL over the FL straits. Proximity to land is my only guess on this situation.

Only the text product is a 5-day product right now. The graphic is still only through 48 hours. Yes, it's weird. I think they should have introduced the two together, but this is the way they're doing it.

And yes, NHC has put up 0% blobs in the past, but in general they are either a segue to higher percentages in immediately following TWOs, or decaying features on their way out. This wave is neither.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 18N34W TO
A WEAK 1013 MB LOW NEAR 11N33W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

[alienstorm]

if you look at the ramis loop you can see what may look like a mid level circulation at 37w and 9/10N