Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[ozonepete]

the NAVGEM has been showing 2 areas consolidating in prior runs...which took awhile to do...maybe this is what it was seeing....

I think they had it right.

[hurricaneCW]

The longer it takes to consolidate, the further west it'll end up. It'll probably take a few days for it to get better organized but I think it should get an invest tag soon. At least the convection has been persistent.

[StormTracker]

the NAVGEM has been showing 2 areas consolidating in prior runs...which took awhile to do...maybe this is what it was seeing....

ROCK has kicked the EURO to the curb! He's ROCKing the NAVGEM this season! I'm with you bro, this may be the "breakout" season for the newly revised & "tricked-out" NOGAPS!It seems to be in the groove with the other models at this point and maybe it can see something that the other models miss and gain some "brownie-points"!!!

[ROCK]

the NAVGEM has been showing 2 areas consolidating in prior runs...which took awhile to do...maybe this is what it was seeing....

ROCK has kicked the EURO to the curb! He's ROCKing the NAVGEM this season! I'm with you bro, this may be the "breakout" season for the newly revised & "tricked-out" NOGAPS!It seems to be in the groove with the other models at this point and maybe it can see something that the other models miss and gain some "brownie-points"!!!

lol...yeah I have been hugging the NAVGEM this year....got a cool name and an upgrade this year. It did see Fernado before the GFS and EURO...

[StormTracker]

the NAVGEM has been showing 2 areas consolidating in prior runs...which took awhile to do...maybe this is what it was seeing....

ROCK has kicked the EURO to the curb! He's ROCKing the NAVGEM this season! I'm with you bro, this may be the "breakout" season for the newly revised & "tricked-out" NOGAPS!It seems to be in the groove with the other models at this point and maybe it can see something that the other models miss and gain some "brownie-points"!!!

lol...yeah I have been hugging the NAVGEM this year....got a cool name and an upgrade this year. It did see Fernado before the GFS and EURO...

Fernado? More like Fernada(get it--nada)? LOL! "Fernand"

[ROCK]

well he did go to MX....

[Alyono]

0Z GFS seems to be continuing the trend from the 18Z toward less development. Basically little change in organization through 114 hours from its current state.

Chances are, this NEVER develops during the next 5 days. Remember, the NHC is giving this a 70 percent chance of not developing. I am giving it a 65 % chance of not developing. The odds are not in this system's favor

[Hurricaneman]

0Z GFS seems to be continuing the trend from the 18Z toward less development. Basically little change in organization through 114 hours from its current state.

Chances are, this NEVER develops during the next 5 days. Remember, the NHC is giving this a 70 percent chance of not developing. I am giving it a 65 % chance of not developing. The odds are not in this system's favor

and to add to your point earlier, it looks healthy on satellite but the wave axis is 4 to 5E of where that convection is making a not so healthy system

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

Yes... pay attention to the surface feature not the convection. If the surface feature has the dynamics, it will be the feature to watch. Just think back to Fay and how good it looked on satellite. The center was about 200 miles west of the beautiful convection. That surface center was what developed.

[Alyono]

GFS is merely a wave through the islands.

Think I'll be more worried the important things, like the start of college football this weekend, as well as looking for a house for myself and my fiancée

[Hurricaneman]

heres the thing with the GFS, its the weakest of all the models including the UKMET so is the GFS going to win this on with little to no development or are all the other models going to put the GFS to shame

based on organizational trends I'm more likely to believe in some development between 50 and 60W

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

GFS is similar to the EC. EC also indicates no development (then again, EC develops NOTHING)

[hurricaneCW]

Yea the gfs isn't really doing much with it and the next system is trending weaker, it looks more like an Erin type storm now that quickly goes to the NW and doesn't strengthen that much.

I'm not really sure what's going on right now, the instability has come back, the MJO is favorable, wind shear is at least near normal, and yet the models aren't really bullish on anything. All of the forecasters are saying that things will be getting active, even very active and we're likely to see hurricanes soon and yet it doesn't look that way for some reason.

Now I'll be patient until say September 15 and see how things really turn out, but something is not quite right in the Atlantic this year, maybe it'll be a late season. That's certainly a possibility given all that heat content and warm waters that have yet to be touched.

If things don't heat up like many are expecting then they'll be plenty to research about that's for sure.

[supercane4867]

00Z NAVGEM

[Alyono]

Canadian has a system east of the islands in 180 hours.

The models are developing different disturbances. Often a sign that nothing will develop out of the mess... or that anything that does develop will be a weak system

check that... the Canadian just takes FOREVER to start the westward progression of this disturbance. I do not believe this solution

[Aric Dunn]

unfortunately the models as usual do a poor job with multiple energies/waves interacting. the trough axis is somewhat discernible but no where near defined enough giving background mess ( lack of a better term) TPW gives a better picture though not related the surface trough. convection of course is key an until there is enough of that.. the models really are not going to do well hence the back and forth they are notable for. all the model talk is mute.. Fernand barely even had any model acknowledgement but developed. need to give it a couple more days...

[Hammy]

It is getting interesting the last few hours with decent to heavy convection firing closer to the circulation area as opposed to near the ITCZ, so its at least trying to go. Most convective wave we've seen in weeks certainly.

As far as the models go, they are proving so back and fourth that by now I feel like a cat chasing a laser pointer when I check them.

[Alyono]

Yea the gfs isn't really doing much with it and the next system is trending weaker, it looks more like an Erin type storm now that quickly goes to the NW and doesn't strengthen that much.

I'm not really sure what's going on right now, the instability has come back, the MJO is favorable, wind shear is at least near normal, and yet the models aren't really bullish on anything. All of the forecasters are saying that things will be getting active, even very active and we're likely to see hurricanes soon and yet it doesn't look that way for some reason.

Now I'll be patient until say September 15 and see how things really turn out, but something is not quite right in the Atlantic this year, maybe it'll be a late season. That's certainly a possibility given all that heat content and warm waters that have yet to be touched.

If things don't heat up like many are expecting then they'll be plenty to research about that's for sure.

easy answer... it is something GLOBAL. There is a reason that ALL basins have below normal activity this year. I just do not know what that reason is at the present time. However, what is known is that there are far more factors than just upper winds, moisture, and SST. Low level winds are big, as are any local temperature inversions, tropopause temps, as well as many small scale processes

[abajan]

I would be very surprised if the next TWO still had development potential at 0% and 30%. This thing looks very healthy.

You and me both. They will definitely bump it up.

SURPRISE!

The mass of convection has all but vanished. Certainly not what I expected (especially at Dmax).

[Extratropical94]

I would be very surprised if the next TWO still had development potential at 0% and 30%. This thing looks very healthy.

You and me both. They will definitely bump it up.

SURPRISE!

The mass of convection has all but vanished. Certainly not what I expected (especially at Dmax).

Yeah, big surprise

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALMOST MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT
10 TO 15 MPH.