Upper Low Over FL Straits: 0% / 0%

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Re: Upper Low Over FL Straits: 10% / 10%

#41 Postby StormTracker » Tue Aug 27, 2013 10:36 pm

Been watching this thing since this am thinking it might be a sleeper(no model support)! This time of year, you never know...ST
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Re: Upper Low Over FL Straits: 10% / 10%

#42 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 27, 2013 10:42 pm

This looks interesting as of now, even T'storms around the possible center according to radar
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppa ... r_keys.gif

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Re: Upper Low Over FL Straits: 10% / 10%

#43 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 27, 2013 10:46 pm

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

Key west....radar...looks like a mini TS... :D
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Re: Upper Low Over FL Straits: 10% / 10%

#44 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 27, 2013 10:52 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if this beat pouch25 to invest 96L status

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#45 Postby MGC » Tue Aug 27, 2013 11:45 pm

Just looking at the Key West radar you would go WOW....with time the ULL could bore down to the surface. Something to watch for sure....MGC
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#46 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 28, 2013 12:13 am

MGC wrote:Just looking at the Key West radar you would go WOW....with time the ULL could bore down to the surface. Something to watch for sure....MGC


its not a "boring" down ... more a convective process of lowering pressure at the surface. the density of the upper atmosphere is not enough to "work" to the surface in that sense.... however it can aid convection that eventually ( do to dynamical processes) develop a surface circ that eventually if either the upper low propagates far enough away or weakens allows the surface circ to deepen... all that said.. the radar out of key west is looking not far above the surface there appears to be at least some development of a lower level circ. it however has a long way to go.
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#47 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 28, 2013 12:26 am

Yeah, Aric it has way to go still. However, Key West radar clearly shows a mid level circulation moving through the Middle Keys currently. Pressure at Marathon at this hour was at 1015.8 mb, not very low but pressures there earlier on Tuesday was at 1017 mb, so slight drop.

We will see what happens on Wednesday. The system will enter the SE GOM and if it can buid convection, it will definitely help the process of getting this at the surface as time progresses. A system to watch for sure.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Aug 28, 2013 12:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Upper Low Over FL Straits: 10% / 10%

#48 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Aug 28, 2013 12:28 am

Made a gif loop.
Image
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Re: Upper Low Over FL Straits: 10% / 10%

#49 Postby hiflyer » Wed Aug 28, 2013 3:16 am

Still 10% at 2am per NHC but sure does look interesting after this slow summer..grin! Either way gonna be a poor day in the Keys for suntans. KMTH dropped from 30.02 to 29.95 over past 6 hours...Marathon...which is midway down the Keys. KEYW=Key West went from 30.02 to 29.96 at the far end of the Keys. Up on the mainland KMIA, Miami International, did a 30.03 to a 29.96
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#50 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Wed Aug 28, 2013 6:16 am

Feeder band setting up over SE Florida. Kinda weird cause only tropical cyclone's bring feeder bands like this over here.
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Re: Upper Low Over FL Straits: 0% / 0%

#51 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 28, 2013 6:41 am

Down to 0%-0%.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION...AND NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
WHILE IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Re: Upper Low Over FL Straits: 0% / 0%

#52 Postby abajan » Wed Aug 28, 2013 8:08 am

cycloneye wrote:Down to 0%-0% ...
That about sums up the season so far. lol
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#53 Postby Frank2 » Wed Aug 28, 2013 8:32 am

The bands moved northward overnight and we are now overcast with occasional rain - as others said the ULC/MLC spin looked impressive on radar but seems to have weakened a bit in the past couple of hours...
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Re: Upper Low Over FL Straits: 0% / 0%

#54 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Aug 28, 2013 8:55 am

ok, am I crazy? Uh, don't answer that!!! Did this make a right turn overnight? IIRC, it was moving WNW to NW yesterday and now it looks like it is going up the spine of the peninsula.
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Re: Upper Low Over FL Straits: 0% / 0%

#55 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:09 am

vbhoutex wrote:ok, am I crazy? Uh, don't answer that!!! Did this make a right turn overnight? IIRC, it was moving WNW to NW yesterday and now it looks like it is going up the spine of the peninsula.



the NAM has it drifting up the spine as well...really hasnt moved all that much for a few days. Steering flow for surface features would suggest a northern drift.....
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Re: Upper Low Over FL Straits: 0% / 0%

#56 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:13 am

Story of this season most times, watching mid and upper level lows for entertainment because there is nothing else going on in the tropics. :lol:
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#57 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:21 am

The steering flow is weak currently, and the system did resume a more northward drift the past several hours. Look like a wet day in store for the extreme southern peninsula. No development expected, especially now that this Mid-Upper Low appears headed to move up the spine of the peninsula for the time being. Just another rainmaker for the southern peninsula.
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Re: Upper Low Over FL Straits: 0% / 0%

#58 Postby LaBreeze » Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:32 am

Local met is saying that this is going north and will only be a rainmaker for Florida - rest of Gulf is protected by the high and its dry air.
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Re: Upper Low Over FL Straits: 0% / 0%

#59 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:44 am

LaBreeze wrote:Local met is saying that this is going north and will only be a rainmaker for Florida - rest of Gulf is protected by the high and its dry air.



there is a naked LLC in the middle of the GOM moving towards TX....:) trying to be positive...
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