Global model runs discussion

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=180hr

18Z GFS not real impressive given its basically the seasons peak. shows an area of lower pressure in the ne carib. also shows the next wave recurving very far east and rather weak. the most important thing it shows is a neg nao with strong high pressure over greenland. no surprise in response to that the atlantic ridge breaks and a strong low is over se canada. i didnt look beyond 180 but it seems clear should the wave in the ne carib develop a path east of bermuda would be most likely. down the line as it turns north and NE i think it might become a hurricane. now, if the wave remains weak it could head further west.

[alienstorm]

Agreed - not very impressive for climo peak of Hurricane Season.

[ninel conde]

Agreed - not very impressive for climo peak of Hurricane Season.

yea, you would expect to see at least 1 well developed hurricane on the models. somewhat perplexing. air isnt as dry, instability is almost normal, not a huge amount of shear, atlantic sst's plenty warm, and the pacific sst's are on the cool side. add to that a more favorable MJO and hopefully the models will start to reflect that.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Quit being such a negative whiner ninel. Business is about to pick up in two weeks.

[Hammy]

Agreed - not very impressive for climo peak of Hurricane Season.

yea, you would expect to see at least 1 well developed hurricane on the models. somewhat perplexing. air isnt as dry, instability is almost normal, not a huge amount of shear, atlantic sst's plenty warm, and the pacific sst's are on the cool side. add to that a more favorable MJO and hopefully the models will start to reflect that.

after failing to develop many of this year's systems in any basin, as well as showing numerous phantom storms, I've lost faith in any of the models beyond 120 hours. Largely for entertainment purposes only at this point.

[supercane4867]

00z GFS showing two high-latitude fish, similar to the last season

[chaser1]

Agreed - not very impressive for climo peak of Hurricane Season.

yea, you would expect to see at least 1 well developed hurricane on the models. somewhat perplexing. air isnt as dry, instability is almost normal, not a huge amount of shear, atlantic sst's plenty warm, and the pacific sst's are on the cool side. add to that a more favorable MJO and hopefully the models will start to reflect that.

after failing to develop many of this year's systems in any basin, as well as showing numerous phantom storms, I've lost faith in any of the models beyond 120 hours. Largely for entertainment purposes only at this point.

Hey Hammy; Well I'd have to "respectively disagree with you on this. Everyone complains how the EURO is simply poor at detecting significant development (myself often included ), yet there has been little significant tropical development that one could fault this model for missing. In fact to better make my point, take a look at the GFS model. So many are claiming that this model has be "neutered" and yet the only thing that has been really neutered thus far, is the Atlantic Hurricane Season. If you think about it, our crazy uncle (model) CMC would have likely forecasted 140 well developed hurricanes by this point in the season, but revisions to its program algorithms have really limited its number of "ghost storms" from a level of "laughable" to simply "excessive".

I think the only models which may soon be eligible for being thrown out the window, are those which were used from January to April that helped some Meteorologists (and many of us perhaps?) determine that this Atlantic season might possibly rival "Armageddon" LOL

[chaser1]

Agreed - not very impressive for climo peak of Hurricane Season.

yea, you would expect to see at least 1 well developed hurricane on the models. somewhat perplexing. air isnt as dry, instability is almost normal, not a huge amount of shear, atlantic sst's plenty warm, and the pacific sst's are on the cool side. add to that a more favorable MJO and hopefully the models will start to reflect that.

after failing to develop many of this year's systems in any basin, as well as showing numerous phantom storms, I've lost faith in any of the models beyond 120 hours. Largely for entertainment purposes only at this point.

Hey Hammy; Well I'd have to "respectively disagree with you on this. Everyone complains how the EURO is simply poor at detecting significant development (myself often included ), yet there has been little significant tropical development that one could fault this model for missing. In fact to better make my point, take a look at the GFS model. So many are claiming that this model has be "neutered" and yet the only thing that has been really neutered thus far, is the Atlantic Hurricane Season. If you think about it, our crazy uncle (model) CMC would have likely forecasted 140 well developed hurricanes by this point in the season, but revisions to its program algorithms have really limited its number of "ghost storms" from a level of "laughable" to simply "excessive".

I think the only models which may soon be eligible for being thrown out the window, are those which were used from January to April that helped some Meteorologists (and many of us perhaps?) determine that this Atlantic season might possibly rival "Armageddon" LOL

[Hammy]

Hey Hammy; Well I'd have to "respectively disagree with you on this. Everyone complains how the EURO is simply poor at detecting significant development (myself often included ), yet there has been little significant tropical development that one could fault this model for missing. In fact to better make my point, take a look at the GFS model. So many are claiming that this model has be "neutered" and yet the only thing that has been really neutered thus far, is the Atlantic Hurricane Season. If you think about it, our crazy uncle (model) CMC would have likely forecasted 140 well developed hurricanes by this point in the season, but revisions to its program algorithms have really limited its number of "ghost storms" from a level of "laughable" to simply "excessive".

I think the only models which may soon be eligible for being thrown out the window, are those which were used from January to April that helped some Meteorologists (and many of us perhaps?) determine that this Atlantic season might possibly rival "Armageddon" LOL

Concerning the Euro it has failed for the most part in all basins. As far as the statement itself I was more referring to all of the models as a whole, the GFS has failed on most of them as well, either failing to develop anything (Fernand being the latest) or developing storms that never happened. I've basically lost my patience with any of them at this point

[meriland23]

Gosh I am so tired of looking at phantom storms of the future on these model runs haha. Would really like to see something physical, and has already come into fruition so we.. and the models really have some foundation to work with.

[pgoss11]

It is really getting frustrating at this point in time. Models pick up on potential systems only to lose them a day later. Condtions are improving in the MDR but nothing is showing up on GFS and Euro for the next 7-10 days. I am officially pissed off.

[meriland23]

GFS 00z run has a interesting track going on here..

165 hr



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

252 hr



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300 hr



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Goes NNW, then straight W to WSW, then NNE

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

it might be that the reason models are showing little of interest is because we are shifting into a winterlike pattern. i have always felt the season would have an early end. 2 things stand out on the 7 day GFS. a HUGE east coast trof and weak atlantic ridging. with that pattern the whole coastline would be safe if anything even developed.

[tolakram]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013082800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr

it might be that the reason models are showing little of interest is because we are shifting into a winterlike pattern. i have always felt the season would have an early end. 2 things stand out on the 7 day GFS. a HUGE east coast trof and weak atlantic ridging. with that pattern the whole coastline would be safe if anything even developed.

That's not a pattern, that's a snapshot of conditions, in this case sea level pressure, at 168 hours. The euro clearly shows high pressure building back in at 240 hours. The statement 'winterlike pattern', when the plains and Ohio valley are expected to be in the upper 80's and 90's doesn't make any sense to me.







All images saved from: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013082800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr

it might be that the reason models are showing little of interest is because we are shifting into a winterlike pattern. i have always felt the season would have an early end. 2 things stand out on the 7 day GFS. a HUGE east coast trof and weak atlantic ridging. with that pattern the whole coastline would be safe if anything even developed.

That's not a pattern, that's a snapshot of conditions, in this case sea level pressure, at 168 hours. The euro clearly shows high pressure building back in at 240 hours. The statement 'winterlike pattern', when the plains and Ohio valley are expected to be in the upper 80's and 90's doesn't make any sense to me.







All images saved from: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

winterlike in that the trofs are getting stronger and more amplified. even on the euro there is still low pressure over se canada.

[Bocadude85]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013082800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr

it might be that the reason models are showing little of interest is because we are shifting into a winterlike pattern. i have always felt the season would have an early end. 2 things stand out on the 7 day GFS. a HUGE east coast trof and weak atlantic ridging. with that pattern the whole coastline would be safe if anything even developed.

Why don't you go post in the winter weather forum? If you look at the 6z GFS and prior runs of the GFS a ridge of high pressure builds in over the atlantic blocking a tropical cyclone(modeled by the GFS) from recurving. Yes this is in the long range but the GFS has been showing this for several runs now. So what I am taking from this is that a ridge will be building in over the east coast in the 10-14 day range and could potentially steer any tropical cyclones in the general direction of the US.

[tolakram]

winterlike in that the trofs are getting stronger and more amplified. even on the euro there is still low pressure over se canada.

The pattern will slowly change, unless winter is cancelled.

I don't think there is any evidence (at least with these model runs) this will end the season early or even lesson the risk to the east coast. In my opinion the east coast risk is always small and dependent on a storm being in the wrong place a the wrong time and getting trapped under a ridge. Sandy was a good example of that. There's also no evidence the season won't end early, but historically neutral and la nina seasons do not.

The models are showing us what they think will happen in the next couple of weeks, and history has shown us that reliability is really limited to the 5 to 7 day range, so lets stick with that.

[caneman]

Not to choose sides but if things keep getting pushed back a week, 10 days, 14 days ,etc.... we will be past the peak of the season. We'll see how it plays out.

[Blown Away]

This season has the potential to be an epic fail with regards to predictions...Maybe 1-2 hurricanes in the global models through mid September...No indication at all that high pressure in place to allow more landfalls...Globals have been good this season not showing significant development and it's hard to go against them now...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

GFS 00z run has a interesting track going on here..

165 hr



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

252 hr



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

300 hr



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Goes NNW, then straight W to WSW, then NNE

When I've seen this pattern set up in the past, I would suspect that the first storm would head on to the north and then NE, and the high pressure would then "ooze" to the south and southwest, strengthening on its southern boundary, to actually be more likely for that 2nd storm to be steered more westerly.

If the two storms were closer, one could follow generally in the path of the other. But in this case, they appear just past that critical distance between them, that would allow the 2nd storm to buck the pattern of the first, as enough space is between them to let that high pressure get squished in between them, almost like if the 1st storm was pushing on it and making it ooze into that direction.

I know, very scientific sounding, haha.