Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[Blinhart]

Yea the gfs isn't really doing much with it and the next system is trending weaker, it looks more like an Erin type storm now that quickly goes to the NW and doesn't strengthen that much.

I'm not really sure what's going on right now, the instability has come back, the MJO is favorable, wind shear is at least near normal, and yet the models aren't really bullish on anything. All of the forecasters are saying that things will be getting active, even very active and we're likely to see hurricanes soon and yet it doesn't look that way for some reason.

Now I'll be patient until say September 15 and see how things really turn out, but something is not quite right in the Atlantic this year, maybe it'll be a late season. That's certainly a possibility given all that heat content and warm waters that have yet to be touched.

If things don't heat up like many are expecting then they'll be plenty to research about that's for sure.

easy answer... it is something GLOBAL. There is a reason that ALL basins have below normal activity this year. I just do not know what that reason is at the present time. However, what is known is that there are far more factors than just upper winds, moisture, and SST. Low level winds are big, as are any local temperature inversions, tropopause temps, as well as many small scale processes

Could it be that meteor that exploded over Russia earlier this year, I know that it sent a lot of dust and other particles into the atmosphere that took a long time to dissipate
.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2013


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W TO THE SOUTH OF
19N...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 17N
BETWEEN 33W AND 41W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN 9 TO 13 KNOTS.

[ninel conde]

im not surprised the southern convection collapsed as i always thought any development had to be further north.

[cycloneye]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE
DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
STILL APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Gustywind]

8M Discussion.


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W TO THE SOUTH OF
19N...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN 9 TO 13 KNOTS.

[OuterBanker]

Not really sure if it is pouch 95, but the 28 00z Canadian has a 984 storm around 68w 25n in 234 (Sept 5). Heading nw at the time. So all haven't given up hope yet.

Of course it is the CMC

[hurricanes1234]

Does this system have the potential to become a hurricane? Or will it most likely be a minimal storm?

[ninel conde]

Does this system have the potential to become a hurricane? Or will it most likely be a minimal storm?

models indicate none of the above but its the peak of the season so its always possible it might find a place conducive for development.

[Blown Away]

Not really sure if it is pouch 95, but the 28 00z Canadian has a 984 storm around 68w 25n in 234 (Sept 5). Heading nw at the time. So all haven't given up hope yet.

Of course it is the CMC

00z CMC, looks like it was a recurve at this position...

[TheStormExpert]

Wow! 12hrs. ago it looked a lot better than now. And to think we were assuming an Invest was soon to come from this. Will this season ever get going?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Not really sure if it is pouch 95, but the 28 00z Canadian has a 984 storm around 68w 25n in 234 (Sept 5). Heading nw at the time. So all haven't given up hope yet.

Of course it is the CMC

00z CMC, looks like it was a recurve at this position...

The recurve would depend on strength of the system at this time. I suspect that the system depicted won't strengthen as fast as shown in the CMC, resulting in a weaker system that isn't so poleward bound at this point. My takeaway here is that there could be a developing/weaker system further south than depicted on a more westerly path at this point in time.
We often see that when the models develop something, they overdo it and the reality is that the storms are weaker and therefor steered by lower level winds (usually heading westward) instead of the upper winds that the stronger storms tap into as well as their tendency to head poleward with more gusto.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Alyono]

wave has done exactly what the reliable models said it would do

little chance of development now it appears

[hurricanes1234]

Might just fizzle out like many of the previous waves. Can someone please explain why the convection is diminishing so rapidly? Thanks.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

wave has done exactly what the reliable models said it would do

little chance of development now it appears

NHC thinks conditions will be better further west which should make everyone concerned....the more west these develop the more islands / CONUS landfall probabilities increase. We saw this in 2005....

[northjaxpro]

Might just fizzle out like many of the previous waves. Can someone please explain why the convection is diminishing so rapidly? Thanks.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Simply, to answer your question, the vast amount of dry, sinking and stable air which is and has been the chief factor in destroying these waves in 2013. The beat just goes on and on about this factor all season long to this point.

[Sanibel]

It seems like successive waves will moisten the ITCZ and once one gets going it will have untapped waters to feed off of.

[Alyono]

wave has done exactly what the reliable models said it would do

little chance of development now it appears

NHC thinks conditions will be better further west which should make everyone concerned....the more west these develop the more islands / CONUS landfall probabilities increase. We saw this in 2005....

Often, NHC ONLY looks at deep shear and sometimes dry air. They use those two factors to determine conditions favorable or unfavorable.

As I previously said... there's far more to it than that

[floridasun78]

wow want from having alot storms to having no storms at all i starting think this season could not get started nhc need do Research on season after it over see why none wave been able get started in late aug

[HurricaneDREW92]

Still feel confident in this scenario

Unofficial Forecast for 25L:

Here is the likely scenario for now thru late this week



And this weekend we may have a potential TC east of the islands. The orange path is what I'm considering the most likely scenario as of today and the two yellow paths are less likely but possible scenarios. Strength-wise I have little to say but my best guess at the moment is this peaks anywhere from 50kts-70kts.



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This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[blp]

Well the model support is still there with FIM, Euro, CMC and Navgem on board with different degrees of strength. Last night's Euro shows a possible scenario were it might get trapped by a building ridge. The fact the Euro still has it has my interest.