Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[floridasun78]

Well the model support is still there with FIM, Euro, CMC and Navgem on board with different degrees of strength. Last night's Euro shows a possible scenario were it might get trapped by a building ridge. The fact the Euro still has it has my interest.

issue that wave weaking fast what will be left of it by islands

[ninel conde]

joe bastardi hasnt given up

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 21m

Tropical wave rolling west near 40w has little convection but circulation evident. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html … Should pick up later in week

[cycloneye]

The Global Hawk jet will go on Thursday to throw dropsondes into the pouch. The models will have data to feed them.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1035 AM EDT WED 28 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-088 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MINOR MISSION CHANGE
A. THE GLOBAL HAWK NA872 WILL FLY A MISSION DEPARTING
WALLOPS AT 29/1100Z. AREA OF INTEREST IS AN EASTERLY WAVE/
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MISSION DURATION IS
25.5 HRS. ALTITUDE 55,000 TO 65,000 FT. PATTERN WILL BE A
A N-S RACE TRACK WITHIN A BOX BOUNDED BY 18.0N 52.5,
8.0N 52.5W, 8.0N 42.5W, AND 18.ON 45.5W. ON-STATION DURATION
11.5 HRS. DROPSONDE TO BE DEPLOYED: 82

http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/

[Alyono]

does the EC have a closed low? It is showing no development if it only has an area of vorticity

[floridasun78]

yes suppose to get active but mother Nature putting hold on that could be this season their been more sal any other season coming off afica that causing wave weaking quick as move west maybe sal is cooling down part of Atlantic that not helping the tropical wave get stronger i starting think their some thing in weather out their that killing wave i hope those hawks send to wave will gave us answer those question i read one going to wave (Pouch 25L) soon

[ROCK]

wave has done exactly what the reliable models said it would do

little chance of development now it appears

NHC thinks conditions will be better further west which should make everyone concerned....the more west these develop the more islands / CONUS landfall probabilities increase. We saw this in 2005....

Often, NHC ONLY looks at deep shear and sometimes dry air. They use those two factors to determine conditions favorable or unfavorable.

As I previously said... there's far more to it than that

interesting, I thought there was more to that....like ssts ect.

I think this will be a player but further down the line closer to PR...sorry Luis...going on NAVGEM guidance...

[ROCK]

does the EC have a closed low? It is showing no development if it only has an area of vorticity

when has the EURO showed any closed low in the ATL this season? lol....it never saw Fernado..

[Hurricaneman]

yes suppose to get active but mother Nature putting hold on that could be this season their been more sal any other season coming off afica that causing wave weaking quick as move west maybe sal is cooling down part of Atlantic that not helping the tropical wave get stronger i starting think their some thing in weather out their that killing wave i hope those hawks send to wave will gave us answer those question i read one going to wave (Pouch 25L) soon

In this case its not the SAL or dry air killing it, its the high temps in the upper atmosphere killing the lapse rates to make clouds grow int thunderstorms in turn you can't have tropical cyclones without thunderstorms

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

Think this wave is DEAD

[cycloneye]

I think this will be a player but further down the line closer to PR...sorry Luis...going on NAVGEM guidance

At this point I will believe it when squalls arrive in San Juan on real time.

[alienstorm]

Interesting they are sending this mission, they must be suspicious of something causing this and they are trying to determine.

[Aric Dunn]

TPW showing a fairly vigorous wave plenty of moisture only a little piece of drier air but hardly enough to cause the convection to collapse. which means there is clearly a stable environment above the wave not allowing deep convection to develop. if that changes then near the island it may have a good chance.

Convection should come back today at some point.

[Aric Dunn]

navy

168hr lol

[Aric Dunn]

no development from the gfs though the track of the wave is similar to the navy
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

and the cmc back on development though it gets going before the islands then curves north quick

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ROCK]

NAVGEM has been doing good this year with genesis...maybe its been lucky but if it goes 2 for 2 this time we have to weigh it more in the consensus.

[cycloneye]

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1400
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND
APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[ROCK]

12Z NAVGEM showing 2 systems now..one direct hit on PR and the other in the Central Carib...sorry Luis...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_31.png

[HurricaneDREW92]

TPW showing a fairly vigorous wave plenty of moisture only a little piece of drier air but hardly enough to cause the convection to collapse. which means there is clearly a stable environment above the wave not allowing deep convection to develop. if that changes then near the island it may have a good chance.

Convection should come back today at some point.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

Convection popping in the NE parts of the wave. Lets see if this popcorn is a trend

Often when you see this it blows up and mantains structure, or blows up and loses it

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 28 2013

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS AN AXIS ALONG 19N38W TO A 1012 MB LOW
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 09N38W AND IS MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS WITHIN A
MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 150 NM OF ITS AXIS.

[Hurricaneman]

Is it me or is this pouch and pouch 24L connected by the same wave, and if so which vortmax will win out, my guess would be this pouch wins out

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products