Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[SFLcane]

Next 2 weeks or so looks like any threat from cv storms should recurve. But as always its all about timeing

[yzerfan]

Remember that there is some unlucky soul living in the center of the cone of any cane.

Unless you're talking Hurricane Bret (1999) where none of the 150 residents of Kenedy County, Texas were really close to anything seriously dangerous from the not terribly large Cat 4 storm. ($15 million in total damage for a landfalling major hurricane really is pretty marginal.)

[Hammy]

I've noticed that the development potential has gradually decreased in the Pacific while increasing in the Atlantic.

[SFLcane]

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=PMDMRD&max=61

Excerpt:

POTENTIAL TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE ATLANTIC ADDS ANOTHER LAYER OF UNCERTAINTY
TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. THE CLIMATIC STATE IN THE ATLANTIC FAVORS
ENHANCED TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT ONE TO THREE WEEKS. BASED ON
THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT BLEND, STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT REGION OF
THE ATLANTIC WOULD BE FAVORED TO RECURVE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, ALTHOUGH THE
EXTRATROPICAL/TROPICAL INTERACTION INVOLVED ALWAYS INCREASES UNCERTAINTY.
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES; SUCH A
SYSTEM IS FAVORED TO RECURVE, THOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT THE IMPACT, IF
ANY, MIGHT BE ON THE EASTERN CONUS.

[ninel conde]

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=PMDMRD&max=61

Excerpt:

POTENTIAL TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE ATLANTIC ADDS ANOTHER LAYER OF UNCERTAINTY
TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. THE CLIMATIC STATE IN THE ATLANTIC FAVORS
ENHANCED TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT ONE TO THREE WEEKS. BASED ON
THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT BLEND, STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT REGION OF
THE ATLANTIC WOULD BE FAVORED TO RECURVE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, ALTHOUGH THE
EXTRATROPICAL/TROPICAL INTERACTION INVOLVED ALWAYS INCREASES UNCERTAINTY.
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES; SUCH A
SYSTEM IS FAVORED TO RECURVE, THOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT THE IMPACT, IF
ANY, MIGHT BE ON THE EASTERN CONUS.

makes sense as long as the east coast trof holds firm.

[hurricaneCW]

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=PMDMRD&max=61

Excerpt:

POTENTIAL TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE ATLANTIC ADDS ANOTHER LAYER OF UNCERTAINTY
TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. THE CLIMATIC STATE IN THE ATLANTIC FAVORS
ENHANCED TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT ONE TO THREE WEEKS. BASED ON
THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT BLEND, STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT REGION OF
THE ATLANTIC WOULD BE FAVORED TO RECURVE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, ALTHOUGH THE
EXTRATROPICAL/TROPICAL INTERACTION INVOLVED ALWAYS INCREASES UNCERTAINTY.
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES; SUCH A
SYSTEM IS FAVORED TO RECURVE, THOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT THE IMPACT, IF
ANY, MIGHT BE ON THE EASTERN CONUS.

makes sense as long as the east coast trof holds firm.

The warm, well above normal NW Atlantic waters are going to add resistance to strong troughs digging too far south or sticking around too often as warm waters often promote more ridging. I think if a disturbance manages to get far enough west that it could be a problem for the east coast. The wave in the central atlantic will be one to watch for sure.

['CaneFreak]

Potential pattern over the next 8-14 days as suggested by CPC. Looks like a recurve pattern. HOWEVER, PLEASE NOTE: recurve does NOT mean NO threat to the US east coast as mentioned by the previous poster.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

[beoumont]

ITCZ looking healthy:

Today's saved pic, for comparison.

A common sequence of events that takes place from mid-August to mid Sept:

A. The ITCZ shifts northward
B. Convection flares up along the ITCZ from Africa to near the Antilles
C. ITCZ becomes cellular, with area(s) of concentrated convection
D. Tropical cyclone(s) develop

We'll see if the sequence completes itself this time, or aborts.

[Hammy]

another sign that things are headed towards more activity as this is probably the most active I've seen the ITCZ in some time.

edit: latest WV shows thunderstorms developing along a wave smack dab in the middle of the dry slot in the MDR, further evidence that the atmosphere is moistening.

[ninel conde]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... t_THDV.gif

instability has broken above the normal line.

[chaser1]

This "TONGUE IN CHEEK" post reflecting the current season & what remains ahead, is meant to insert a tad of humor during this present peak of season - lull. The following actual excerpts were truly from an online article regarding SAL conditions, from yesterday (and obviously taken out of context for you listening.....er.... READING PLEASURE )

: AFRICAN DUST CLOUDS WORRY CARIBBEAN SCIENTISTS
(http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireSt ... s-20084157)

Each summer, microscopic dust particles kicked up by African sandstorms blow thousands of miles (kilometers) across the Atlantic to arrive in the Caribbean, limiting airplane pilots' visibility to just a few miles and contributing to the suffering of asthmatics trying to draw breath....

The phenomenon has been around as long as there's been sand in the Sahara Desert. But it's attracting ever more attention from regional scientists who say the clouds have grown.......

In recent days and weeks a particularly large cloud dusted eastern Caribbean islands, made for hazy skies and intense, tangerine-tinted sunsets off Havana, drifted over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and was detected as far away as Wyoming....

While the clouds have mostly been treated as a meteorological curiosity by TV newscasts, scientists say periodic masses of dust may have important climactic consequences, even hindering hurricane formation to some degree. NASA has been sending unmanned drones into tropical storms this year to study the phenomenon....

Scientists say they contain trace amounts of things like metals, microorganisms, bacteria, spores, pesticides and fecal matter......

Wait a moment, WHAAAA? FECAL MATTER?? Well, there you have it folks?! What "really" has been the biggest factor impacting tropical cyclone development and intensity? Global Warming, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, "El Nino", the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation)???? Nope, turns out there's a darker & dirtier condition behind why tropical cyclone development might be becoming hindered!

The next "latest Tropical Cyclone Enthusiast newly discovered catch phrase" impacting tropical cyclone activity:
"SALFDQ" (SAL Fecal Density Quotient)!

I can see it in the media now...."NOAA scientists recently noting the latest in a series of SAL outbreaks, have lowered earlier seasonal predictions of an active season". Not unlike the oft tossed around (slightly amended) phrase "Crap flows downhill", scientists further noted "...furthermore unusually high densities of fecal matter have not only continued to be measured in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, but further observations indicate a potential brown residue tainting the sea surface waters, may be responsible for the 1-2 degree temperature drop basin wide....". When reporters further questioned about the long term global implications to tropical cyclone development, one scientist requesting to remain anonymous indicated that, "... data was still inconclusive (and) newest model data recently analyzed might have "sniffed out" whether this latest trend in decreased cyclone activity might continue....". He further went on to indicate that, prior to any announcement of discovery scientists might seek to "flush out" recent 6Z & 18Z data runs given concerns of contaminated data.

[NDG]

No wonder the last dust cloud that made it here to central FL smelled like crap, lol
j/k

[ninel conde]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue3m
For first week of September, 8-day GFS 12z tropical wind swath forecast looks dead. pic.twitter.com/a0lUdqdXJN

i guess things will be even worse when the MJO leaves.

[Ntxw]

ACE currently sits at 31% of normal in the Atlantic. In the next few days we are likely going to drop below 30%. This would make the Atlantic the quietest basin in the globe relative to average regarding this matter.

For those following the MJO, it's pretty well defined and moving through EPAC and W Atlantic.

[Hurricane Alexis]

If the MJO produces limited activity, I will jump on the season bust bandwagon. It just doesn't feel like this season will pick up enough like some are saying.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

I wonder that if it has anything to do with the GFS quiting down some in that it does not show the MJO to be that strong in phase 1 if anything dying out in phase 1, compared to the Euro which shows a stronger MJO from phase 1 into phase 2.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'm not sure what's going on now. The ENSO is cool Neutral, Vertical instability is at its highest point in who knows when, wind shear is below average, sea surface temperatures are above average, the Intertropical Convergence Zone is higher north in latitude than normal, the Gulf of Guinea and Indian Ocean are cooler relative to average, the African monsoon season has been wetter than normal, there has been little Saharan Air Layer, and a strong MJO pulse is amplifying across much of the Atlantic. Yet it's late August and the global models show nothing noteworthy. I don't understand it. We're missing something very important, and obviously very effect, given the lack of activity. If we don't see a big burst in activity in early September, seasonal forecasts will bust.

[Ntxw]

Lack of El Nino . That's what I think anyway it's just going to deteriorate year by year until a good one shows up. Global problem since 2009 *cough*

[Hurricaneman]

I'm not sure what's going on now. The ENSO is cool Neutral, Vertical instability is at its highest point in who knows when, wind shear is below average, sea surface temperatures are above average, the Intertropical Convergence Zone is higher north in latitude than normal, the Gulf of Guinea and Indian Ocean are cooler relative to average, the African monsoon season has been wetter than normal, there has been little Saharan Air Layer, and a strong MJO pulse is amplifying across much of the Atlantic. Yet it's late August and the global models show nothing noteworthy. I don't understand it. We're missing something very important, and obviously very effect, given the lack of activity. If we don't see a big burst in activity in early September, seasonal forecasts will bust.

IMO its about the temps at the 200mb level being too high causing poor lapse rates making for a low number of t-storms and probably is a major cause for no real development in the MDR but it could be something else that has been missed

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[South Texas Storms]

I'm not sure what's going on now. The ENSO is cool Neutral, Vertical instability is at its highest point in who knows when, wind shear is below average, sea surface temperatures are above average, the Intertropical Convergence Zone is higher north in latitude than normal, the Gulf of Guinea and Indian Ocean are cooler relative to average, the African monsoon season has been wetter than normal, there has been little Saharan Air Layer, and a strong MJO pulse is amplifying across much of the Atlantic. Yet it's late August and the global models show nothing noteworthy. I don't understand it. We're missing something very important, and obviously very effect, given the lack of activity. If we don't see a big burst in activity in early September, seasonal forecasts will bust.

I agree and am very surprised at how the global models don't show much at all developing out there in the next 2 weeks. Something must be missing. Usually around this time of year, the globals are showing at least one big storm developing. Nothing is really even consistently in fantasy range either. So weird.