There have only been three years in the last 30 with no hurricanes through the end of August: 1984, 2001 and 2002. While 2002 had four hurricanes and 1984 had five, 2001 had nine. So it is still feasible that we could still have have a large number of hurricanes. The thing is, thought, that there is little indication that the current patttern will change anytime soon. I think that we still shouldn't make judgments yet based on the model output, but if a week from now (September 3), we still see the same model pattern, the chances of an active season are probably severely reduced.
By the way, only two hurricanes hit the US in those three years (Diana and Lili), and both were weakening category 1 hurricanes.
any one backing off ther #'s?
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Re:
Alyono wrote:I am fully backing off
Something global is keeping ACE WORLDWIDE very very low. Sometimes we get years like this
Whatever it is... it appears clear that we will not have a hyper active season. I do need 7 more storms though as I have a lunch bet. The 0/U was 6.5 and I took the over
"Sometimes" seems to be more common these days, at least per Ryan Maue...
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'CaneFreak
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northjaxpro
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Well, I have waited patiently to post in this thread until now at the end of August to assess the situation out in the tropical Atlantic. My initial numbers for this season was 16/8/4. I think as how things have transpired this season to this point, I think I can reasonably say that we will not see a total of 8 hurricanes in the Atlantic basin for the rest of this season.
SAL and vertical shear has really put the whammy on the basin and despite the projected MJO pulse forecast to reach the Atlantic basin going into September, most of the reliable models do not have any significant threats on the horizon at least for the next 7-10 days. Should this come to fruition, this would lead right into the period near and up to September 10, which according to climatology, is the peak date of tropical activity each season.
It is likely that August will finish with only 2 named storms. We are currently at just 6/0/0 I think with the SAL and vertical shear still persisting as significant factors as we head into the first week or so into September, I think we will only see three to five storms in Sept at the most.
It seems that this year is just not cooperating for having the Cape Verde trackers. I think for the rest of this season, I think the best instability and conducive areas for tropical cyclone development will be across the Western Caribbean, BOC and Southern GOM area or maybe the SW Atlantic basin west of 60 degrees longiitude.
I think we will end up likely at around 12 to 14 storms for the 2013 season, which would make average to barely above average. I think we may see a total of three hurricanes going forward, with just one possibly reaching major status.
So I am saying the rest of this season: 7/3/1
Mother Nature had other ideas in mind for the tropics this season. Definitely not the hyperactive season many had thought this would be. However, remember always that although this season has not been hyperactive, all it takes is just one significant tropical cyclone making impact to unfortunately make this season a bad one. So, putting this into that perspective, let's hope that any major storm that does decide to develop this season will stay harmlessly out to sea.
SAL and vertical shear has really put the whammy on the basin and despite the projected MJO pulse forecast to reach the Atlantic basin going into September, most of the reliable models do not have any significant threats on the horizon at least for the next 7-10 days. Should this come to fruition, this would lead right into the period near and up to September 10, which according to climatology, is the peak date of tropical activity each season.
It is likely that August will finish with only 2 named storms. We are currently at just 6/0/0 I think with the SAL and vertical shear still persisting as significant factors as we head into the first week or so into September, I think we will only see three to five storms in Sept at the most.
It seems that this year is just not cooperating for having the Cape Verde trackers. I think for the rest of this season, I think the best instability and conducive areas for tropical cyclone development will be across the Western Caribbean, BOC and Southern GOM area or maybe the SW Atlantic basin west of 60 degrees longiitude.
I think we will end up likely at around 12 to 14 storms for the 2013 season, which would make average to barely above average. I think we may see a total of three hurricanes going forward, with just one possibly reaching major status.
So I am saying the rest of this season: 7/3/1
Mother Nature had other ideas in mind for the tropics this season. Definitely not the hyperactive season many had thought this would be. However, remember always that although this season has not been hyperactive, all it takes is just one significant tropical cyclone making impact to unfortunately make this season a bad one. So, putting this into that perspective, let's hope that any major storm that does decide to develop this season will stay harmlessly out to sea.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Re:
Alyono wrote:I am fully backing off
Something global is keeping ACE WORLDWIDE very very low. Sometimes we get years like this
Whatever it is... it appears clear that we will not have a hyper active season. I do need 7 more storms though as I have a lunch bet. The 0/U was 6.5 and I took the over
I have wondered why that happens. I know that happened in 1977 where all the basins were below average. I have seen this more recently. I know Pacific is in a cool phase of PDO. Atlantic has SAL and sinking air.
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northjaxpro
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I decided to bump this thread again.
Just curious to see what other Storm2K members revised numbers are now for the rest of the season. I stated 7/3/1 in my revison in my post above a week ago. Now, we can only add a weak Gabrielle to the total for this disappointing season.
Need 6 more storms to happen now to the end of the season. I am starting to hedge on three hurricanes forming the rest of the season, unless we have a very active October in the Caribbean. Heck. we can't even have one hurricane come to life yet and we are at the climatologically peak of the season right now.
Just curious to see what other Storm2K members revised numbers are now for the rest of the season. I stated 7/3/1 in my revison in my post above a week ago. Now, we can only add a weak Gabrielle to the total for this disappointing season.
Need 6 more storms to happen now to the end of the season. I am starting to hedge on three hurricanes forming the rest of the season, unless we have a very active October in the Caribbean. Heck. we can't even have one hurricane come to life yet and we are at the climatologically peak of the season right now.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Hurricaneman
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Re: any one backing off ther #'s?
Pre-Season: 20/7/4 ACE:160
August 28th: 9/2/1 ACE: 85
Today: 8/1/0 ACE: 25
Well to go with a boring and disappointing season, I probably wont go any lower than that.
August 28th: 9/2/1 ACE: 85
Today: 8/1/0 ACE: 25
Well to go with a boring and disappointing season, I probably wont go any lower than that.
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otowntiger
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Re: any one backing off ther #'s?
I cannot remember a more boring insignificant tropical season than this one. It is almost interesting in that it is so quiet. Almost!Hurricane_Luis wrote:Pre-Season: 20/7/4 ACE:160
August 28th: 9/2/1 ACE: 85
Today: 8/1/0 ACE: 25
Well to go with a boring and disappointing season, I probably wont go any lower than that.
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gatorcane
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Well looking at the long-range GFS which goes out through Oct 2nd, looks like there are a couple of possibilities for development but nothing hyperactive by any means. It's quite clear this season has busted and won't be as hyperactive as alot of the agencies thought. Time to lower the numbers...
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ninel conde
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Re: any one backing off ther #'s?
I think we'll go 4/1/0 for the rest of the season.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re:
ninel conde wrote:i dont think i can go any lower. 9/2/0 no hurricane landfalls.
I agree with the no hurricane landfalls. Best conditions have passed us by and now models are starting to show much stronger fronts and troughs dropping down to the gulf. Before long the gulf will be shut down with westerlies building in. Whatever does manage to either form or move in will likely have tons of shear to deal with from here on out.
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ninel conde
Re: Re:
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:ninel conde wrote:i dont think i can go any lower. 9/2/0 no hurricane landfalls.
I agree with the no hurricane landfalls. Best conditions have passed us by and now models are starting to show much stronger fronts and troughs dropping down to the gulf. Before long the gulf will be shut down with westerlies building in. Whatever does manage to either form or move in will likely have tons of shear to deal with from here on out.
might have 1 or 2 more storms but i think the season ends early. the CV season is done with that trof along nw africa getting stronger. the west carib and gom north of 25 are blocked and as you say the trofs are becoming more winterlike in strength.
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