Mid to late week subtropical/hybrid off east coast?

[CrazyC83]

That's what most GFS runs have been suggesting from the frontal trough expected to emerge off the east coast midweek, the question is can it take up tropical characteristics. The most likely area to watch would be around 38N 70W. Not sure if supported by other models at this time. Worth watching, even though high-latitude storms don't garner much interest here.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'll be watching, for one.

[CrazyC83]

It definitely is an interesting feature and we have seen many storms develop up there...

[Riptide]

12z GFS shows the low pressure traveling over the gulf stream, I'd imagine it would be fully-tropical rather than a hybrid. It is not late October afterall.

[Steve H.]

Yeah whenever you get the trailing edge of a trough there is often the potential for some home brew. Watching the tail end of a back door front southeast of Miami. A lot of convection and good easterly fetch to the north

[CrazyC83]

It would most likely be around Thursday if it develops.

[wxman57]

Appears to be a frontal low, not tropical.

[Sanibel]

Yeah whenever you get the trailing edge of a trough there is often the potential for some home brew. Watching the tail end of a back door front southeast of Miami. A lot of convection and good easterly fetch to the north

Prime spot to watch.

[tolakram]

Visible south of Florida this morning. Upper level low at the moment.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

GFS moves vorticity around South Florida and then toward the east coast. Not sure it's directly related or not.

[wxman57]

Visible south of Florida this morning. Upper level low at the moment.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

GFS moves vorticity around South Florida and then toward the east coast. Not sure it's directly related or not.

That's unrelated. The low the models are developing is the frontal low now located over Long Island. Completely frontal/cold-core. The system by Florida did catch my eye this morning. Nothing at the surface, though. Pressures in the FL Straits 1016mb and no rotation at all. It's all aloft.

[CrazyC83]

I still think it is worth watching, although the NHC is silent about it right now.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I still think it is worth watching, although the NHC is silent about it right now.

I couldn't agree more.

[CrazyC83]

I know the GFS develops this, but what about the other models?

[supercane4867]

Not bad

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I haven't read one of these in years. Is that showing the system transitioning into an asymmetric shallow warm core, or am I wrong?

['CaneFreak]

Yes. That is correct. Symmetric warm core systems are on the bottom right.

I haven't read one of these in years. Is that showing the system transitioning into an asymmetric shallow warm core, or am I wrong?

[supercane4867]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.08.2013

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 36.8N 75.0W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.08.2013 36.8N 75.0W MODERATE
00UTC 30.08.2013 35.0N 70.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 30.08.2013 34.5N 67.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2013 34.5N 64.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2013 34.7N 61.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2013 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[cycloneye]

UKMET continues to like this area.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 35.6N 72.3W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 30.08.2013 34.9N 71.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2013 34.8N 67.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.08.2013 36.1N 62.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2013 37.1N 58.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.09.2013 38.6N 55.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.09.2013 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[Aric Dunn]

UKMET continues to like this area.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 35.6N 72.3W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 30.08.2013 34.9N 71.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2013 34.8N 67.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.08.2013 36.1N 62.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2013 37.1N 58.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.09.2013 38.6N 55.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.09.2013 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

take a look the are there looking pretty subtropical atm

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[AJC3]

take a look the are there looking pretty subtropical atm

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

If you don't count the surface frontal (low level baroclinic) zone that the low is embedded in.

It still may have ideas of transitioning, however time and location are not on it's side. It's already tightroping along the marginally warm SST eddies along the north wall of the Gulf Stream at 40N.