Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[ScottNAtlanta]

TPW showing a fairly vigorous wave plenty of moisture only a little piece of drier air but hardly enough to cause the convection to collapse. which means there is clearly a stable environment above the wave not allowing deep convection to develop. if that changes then near the island it may have a good chance.

Convection should come back today at some point.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

Convection popping in the NE parts of the wave. Lets see if this popcorn is a trend

Often when you see this it blows up and mantains structure, or blows up and loses it

I think that popcorn type convection is more a sign of stable air, but I could be wrong

[HurricaneDREW92]

You sure? One would think thunderstorms popping would be a sign of unstable air

TPW showing a fairly vigorous wave plenty of moisture only a little piece of drier air but hardly enough to cause the convection to collapse. which means there is clearly a stable environment above the wave not allowing deep convection to develop. if that changes then near the island it may have a good chance.

Convection should come back today at some point.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

Convection popping in the NE parts of the wave. Lets see if this popcorn is a trend

Often when you see this it blows up and mantains structure, or blows up and loses it

I think that popcorn type convection is more a sign of stable air, but I could be wrong

[JGrin87]

TPW showing a fairly vigorous wave plenty of moisture only a little piece of drier air but hardly enough to cause the convection to collapse. which means there is clearly a stable environment above the wave not allowing deep convection to develop. if that changes then near the island it may have a good chance.

Convection should come back today at some point.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

Convection popping in the NE parts of the wave. Lets see if this popcorn is a trend

Often when you see this it blows up and mantains structure, or blows up and loses it

Where is the new convection popping? I don't see anything.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Little bit at 15-18N & 40W

TPW showing a fairly vigorous wave plenty of moisture only a little piece of drier air but hardly enough to cause the convection to collapse. which means there is clearly a stable environment above the wave not allowing deep convection to develop. if that changes then near the island it may have a good chance.

Convection should come back today at some point.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

Convection popping in the NE parts of the wave. Lets see if this popcorn is a trend

Often when you see this it blows up and mantains structure, or blows up and loses it

Where is the new convection popping? I don't see anything.

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro has Pouch 25L in the Southeastern Bahamas at 240Hrs as a 1012 low heading WNW.

[HurricaneDREW92]

12z Euro has Pouch 25L in the Southeastern Bahamas at 240Hrs as a 1012 low heading WNW.

I have some faith that this will become Gabrielle before the weekends out. Think it peaks at 75kts

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html
Very broad area with limited convection and slight rotation...Type of area that could pull together this time of year...

[Gustywind]

Dr. Jeff Masters discussion.

Tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles downgraded

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2503


A tropical wave that came off the coast of Africa on Sunday is midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance is moving westward at 10 - 15 mph, has a modest amount of spin, but has lost nearly all of the limited heavy thunderstorm activity it had. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC downgraded the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance from 30% to 20%. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots over the system, but there is an area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the north that is interfering with development. For the next few days, though, the wave will experience upward-moving air from a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) that is moving eastwards across the Atlantic at 25 - 35 mph. This interaction may contribute to development. With the exception of the NAVGEM model, there is little support from the models for developing the disturbance during the next five days. The wave could spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Sunday.

A tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Friday and track over the Cape Verde Islands is developed by the GFS and European models. This wave is expected to take a northwesterly track, and would likely not be able to make the long trek across the Atlantic to threaten North America or the Caribbean Islands.

Jeff Masters

[Gustywind]

Several Features; Development Possible This Weekend
August 28, 2013; 11:01 AM
We continue to track several features across the Atlantic Basin. The best chance of development will be over the eastern Atlantic.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... 0659509001

See video from Accuweather.com: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... 0659509001

[HurricaneDREW92]

The NAVGEM, ROCK

Dr. Jeff Masters discussion.

Tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles downgraded

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2503


A tropical wave that came off the coast of Africa on Sunday is midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance is moving westward at 10 - 15 mph, has a modest amount of spin, but has lost nearly all of the limited heavy thunderstorm activity it had. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC downgraded the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance from 30% to 20%. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots over the system, but there is an area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the north that is interfering with development. For the next few days, though, the wave will experience upward-moving air from a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) that is moving eastwards across the Atlantic at 25 - 35 mph. This interaction may contribute to development. With the exception of the NAVGEM model, there is little support from the models for developing the disturbance during the next five days. The wave could spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Sunday.

A tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Friday and track over the Cape Verde Islands is developed by the GFS and European models. This wave is expected to take a northwesterly track, and would likely not be able to make the long trek across the Atlantic to threaten North America or the Caribbean Islands.

Jeff Masters

[Gustywind]

Tropics: Watching Two Areas

Tropical Update from the Weather Channel.

http://www.weather.com/video/tropics-wa ... areas-6584

[Alyono]

even the hyper aggressive FIM no longer develops this system

It's dead... time to look elsewhere it seems

[CalmBeforeStorm]

even the hyper aggressive FIM no longer develops this system

It's dead... time to look elsewhere it seems

Can you really say with certainty that an area of mid level rotation with associated low pressure in the MDR in late August is dead?

[fci]

12z Euro has Pouch 25L in the Southeastern Bahamas at 240Hrs as a 1012 low heading WNW.

I have some faith that this will become Gabrielle before the weekends out. Think it peaks at 75kts

Put me solidly in the "no Gabrielle this weekend" camp.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Sure can. Its dead. See how easy that was

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Sure can. Its dead. See how easy that was

I don't think so. If you see convection in the middle of that broad rotation then the structure is already there and you instantly have something. In some ways it's better organized then it was yesterday. Just devoid of convection.

[SFLcane]

Sure can. Its dead. See how easy that was

Nothing is really ever dead during the REAL season especially weak waves with a vigorous circulation such as this one. Less stable air is to its west.

[Hurricaneman]

The models could also be completely wrong as most of them have a low at 9N while it looks like its consolidating at 14N so in essence the location could be way off and it does indeed look like its organizing so as far as track I would think straight west into the eastern caribbean as a 50mph storm then from there is anyones guess

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

The models could also be completely wrong as most of them have a low at 9N while it looks like its consolidating at 14N so in essence the location could be way off and it does indeed look like its organizing so as far as track I would think straight west into the eastern caribbean as a 50mph storm then from there is anyones guess

Also we are getting into September. This wave could easily pull a Jeanne. So people in the islands should continue to monitor this system!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

Given the steering pattern, wouldn't anything near 14N be more likely to head north of the islands?