Gustywind wrote:Dr. Jeff Masters discussion.
Tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles downgraded
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2503
A tropical wave that came off the coast of Africa on Sunday is midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance is moving westward at 10 - 15 mph, has a modest amount of spin, but has lost nearly all of the limited heavy thunderstorm activity it had. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC downgraded the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance from 30% to 20%. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots over the system, but there is an area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the north that is interfering with development. For the next few days, though, the wave will experience upward-moving air from a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) that is moving eastwards across the Atlantic at 25 - 35 mph. This interaction may contribute to development. With the exception of the NAVGEM model, there is little support from the models for developing the disturbance during the next five days. The wave could spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Sunday.
A tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Friday and track over the Cape Verde Islands is developed by the GFS and European models. This wave is expected to take a northwesterly track, and would likely not be able to make the long trek across the Atlantic to threaten North America or the Caribbean Islands.
Jeff Masters
Wow, a whole lotta nothing to worry about in that update! More and more it seems that this season will be very sub par. I honestly can't remember a less active August and less promising early september. I know there probably have been some but not in this current busy cycle (since '95 anyway).
