Mentally Adjusting to Slow-Moving Cape Verde Storms....

[Derecho]

After storms with a forward speed of 18-20 kts in the GOM, etc., I've sort of noticed with Fabian, and even more so with Isabel, which only has a forward speed of 10 kts, that people really don't have a sense of how far away Isabel is.

(IF) Isabel hit Florida the EARLIEST landfall I could see is in 9 days; more likely in 10-12 days, and if Isabel hit NORTH of Florida, it easily could take upwards of 14-16 days.

There's no recon till tomorrow, no hurricane watches for at least a week, etc.

In contrast, with an Erika, you have an exciting development that matters every five minutes.

And while one can today BEGIN to legitimately discuss WHETHER it hits the US mainland today or tomorrow, you can't have a discussion of WHERE it would hit the US that isn't a pointless waste of brain energy for probably another 4-5 days.

[Steve H.]

Agree, the probabilities are so small at this point its negligible. However, for CNN to say its going out to sea is just as ludicrous, although its entirely possible since most of them do CNN can say that cause most of the time they'd be right.

[MWatkins]

Agree, the probabilities are so small at this point its negligible. However, for CNN to say its going out to sea is just as ludicrous, although its entirely possible since most of them do CNN can say that cause most of the time they'd be right.

Their right of track bias seems surprising considering how left biased they usually are.

MW

[jfaul]

After storms with a forward speed of 18-20 kts in the GOM, etc., I've sort of noticed with Fabian, and even more so with Isabel, which only has a forward speed of 10 kts, that people really don't have a sense of how far away Isabel is.

(IF) Isabel hit Florida the EARLIEST landfall I could see is in 9 days; more likely in 10-12 days, and if Isabel hit NORTH of Florida, it easily could take upwards of 14-16 days.

There's no recon till tomorrow, no hurricane watches for at least a week, etc.

In contrast, with an Erika, you have an exciting development that matters every five minutes.

And while one can today BEGIN to legitimately discuss WHETHER it hits the US mainland today or tomorrow, you can't have a discussion of WHERE it would hit the US that isn't a pointless waste of brain energy for probably another 4-5 days.

yes but 5 days before the storm would hit the hype and panic and all that stuff starts so in actuality by about sunday if it is where it is supposed to be and the ridge is hanging tough than mass hype and panic will set in because of course there is so much complacency in sofla.

[Steve H.]

LOL Mwatkins...they usually are to the left!!!!

[dixiebreeze]

Mike Watkins, beautifully said --