Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[hurricanes1234]

What a crazy season. I can't remember the last time it's been this silent when getting ready to go into the first week of September. I had lowered my numbers some, but I had expected it to get really active the last week of August. Now it looks like will have to lower numbers quite a bit more. It's hard to believe a month from Sunday it will be October. I wonder if 2013 will go down as the season that wasn't?? .....

It certainly has the potential to go down in history as one of the least active Augusts.

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[Hammy]

1968 anyone? http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1968/

[alienstorm]

I am starting to believe that this will be a season without a hurricane. There is something more than just dry air, shear and low RH causing this. However, as many of us I don't know what that mysterious potion is ...

[ninel conde]

1968 anyone? http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1968/

some similarity. i still like 1993.

[Hammy]

1968 anyone? http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1968/

some similarity. i still like 1993.

except that, once again, 1993 was an El Nino year, so the comparison does not really work.

[gatorcane]

Well not really sure what to think now that we are a few days away from September and we got nothing out there still. We are still just a little under two weeks from the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season of Sept 10th so alot can still change.

You got to think it will pick up any day now. Will it be a situation where once the lid finally comes off we see a string of powerful systems that form across the Atlantic in a 2-3 week span?

[MetroMike]

If this season continues this way, I'm worried about next season and possible government cuts to NOAA and the TPC and other agencies. I'm sure that is it being written already with the lack of action in the tropics and false sense of security that may haunt next season. May seem to those not well informed that there is an excess of staff at these agencies, given the current "lack of a hurricane season" I'm no expert by any means, just some concerning issues going into next hurricane season.

[ninel conde]

1968 anyone? http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1968/

some similarity. i still like 1993.

except that, once again, 1993 was an El Nino year, so the comparison does not really work.

el nino is just one factor of many.

[Hammy]

1993 comparison really does not work. Comparing the hurricane seasons, 1993 had a completely dead July whereas this year had two storms, and August and September 1993 were close to average whereas this year is not. The tropical seasons in both Pacific basins were also very active in 1993, this year for unknown reasons has been globally quiet. Not to mention that Summer 1993 was extremely wet in the Midwest and West whereas this year has been extremely dry in those areas. East coast troughs are also but a single item. I do not understand the persistent comparisons which lack any sort of realistic backing.

That being said, I still do not see any reason in the future why activity should not pick up, but against all odds, the Atlantic still seems almost unwilling to produce any systems. A 2001 type year is still possible but only if the atmosphere begins behaving by the standard natural rules, so to speak.

[StormTracker]

The models know why they aren't developing storms. I know that sounds flippant, but they are picking up on what is missing, otherwise they would be developing more phantom systems.

Mark, thank you for the segue way into something that I've been wanting to post about since the beginning of August! What if, and I know I'm gonna get eaten alive for saying this, but WHAT IF: some of the upgrades & tweaks to SOME of the models have improved their performance to where they are taking out the garbage(ex.: the GFS as of late showing 3 storms on one run, only not to show anything but a TW for the last few days) and really focused on "getting it right" so to speak! Like I've heard several members here mention, we haven't been seeing as many of those "phantom storms" this season that certain models are notorious at creating when there is absolutely nothing happening out there! After all, isn't the ultimate goal to gather as much information as possible about storms as early as possible, to protect the human life? Maybe the models are really getting better! Remember, computers only know what we put into them! We are in 2013 now. Just looking at it from the "glass half full" perspective...ST

[Frank2]

If this season continues this way, I'm worried about next season and possible government cuts to NOAA and the TPC and other agencies. I'm sure that is it being written already with the lack of action in the tropics and false sense of security that may haunt next season. May seem to those not well informed that there is an excess of staff at these agencies, given the current "lack of a hurricane season" I'm no expert by any means, just some concerning issues going into next hurricane season.

I don't think that'll make any difference, other than the budget cuts already in place, because even Congress knows that one season might be quiet but the next busy, but what needs to be eliminated are those seasonal forecasts as mentioned in the topic posted earlier this week - they've been very misleading or completely wrong and that does cause the public to lose confidence in any forecast - even short term forecasts, and that's not a good thing...

My own opinion - the public would rather the NHC be the good warning service it's always been, versus a Government outlet that issues questionable seasonal forecasts if only to keep pace with the secular media...

Frank

[otowntiger]

We are about to wrap up the most uneventful August in tropics I can remember. No development of interest and NOTHING apparently on the horizon. Wow. Really, the whole month and for that matter the whole season has been pretty innocuous at best. (in other words boring). I'm getting ready to go on vacation out of state for a couple weeks so I'm glad to not have anything on the horizon to worry about for my home and family, but I guess I need to get another hobby because when the tropics are THIS quiet at the peak then I feel like I'm twiddling my thumbs.

[Portastorm]

Here's what I wonder as August draws to a close ... if tropical cyclones are nature's way of building and releasing heat around the globe ... what does the lack of cyclones in both the Pacific and Atlantic mean for the global weather ahead? Or are there areas now around the globe experiencing extreme weather as a result of our non-seasons, so to speak, in the EPAC and Atlantic?

This might be too simple of an understanding so someone correct me if I'm wrong.

[Ntxw]

Here's what I wonder as August draws to a close ... if tropical cyclones are nature's way of building and releasing heat around the globe ... what does the lack of cyclones in both the Pacific and Atlantic mean for the global weather ahead? Or are there areas now around the globe experiencing extreme weather as a result of our non-seasons, so to speak, in the EPAC and Atlantic?

This might be too simple of an understanding so someone correct me if I'm wrong.

Complex question with no easy answer. Here I would like to refer back to the discussion beforehand about lack of El Nino as a possible culprit. True SST's are warm in the Atlantic but on a grand scheme the La Nina's and cold neutrals have scoured a lot of heat globally from the tropics. Maybe it hasn't been noticeable on a seasonal scale but is showing itself longer term. So you could argue there's really not that much heat to begin with in the atmosphere.

I think there is some correlation with tornadoes as well, we are also in record low territory for tornado count. late 90s and 2010/2011 had some significant tornado outbreaks, going from El Nino's to La Nina's. Lots of big storms, lots of heat transport. Will have to dig deeper.

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Still Unusually Quiet; Juliette Weakening

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... 0659509001

August 29, 2013; 11:18 AM
The Atlantic Basin remains unusally quiet. We are tracking several features but only a system in west Africa has the best chance for development. Juliette in the East Pacific is much weaker.

[USTropics]

In case you missed it, here is a very detailed synopsis of why SAL and vertical shear has stymied tropical development this year:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/24hourprof/comment.html?entrynum=64

[northjaxpro]

It also looks to remain this way going into at least through the first week of September.

[Alyono]

my thoughts...

I LOVE this. So far, except for Fernand, we have had a minimal impact on lives and property. I'd love nothing more than for a year like 2009 with minimal impacts. Having nobody be affected means far more to me than having a good storm to track

[Kalrany]

Agreed. I, for one, am still gun-shy 5 years after Ike. This has been nice.

[ninel conde]

parade of tutts

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/250hght_stdanom/250hght_stdanom_tropatl_69.gif